Chinanews.com, February 12th (Sweet Chen Tianhao) Recently, U.S. President Joe Biden delivered a 7,000-word State of the Union address, focusing on the situation in Ukraine, Sino-U.S. relations, high inflation in the U.S., gun violence, and border immigration. Issues, explain their achievements, and win the support of Congress.

　　This State of the Union Address revealed the US President's policy direction and views on many major issues, which attracted attention.

Chinanews invited Yuan Zheng, deputy director and researcher of the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Robert Kuhn, chairman of the Kuhn Foundation of the United States, to interpret the political ecology of the United States, the prediction of the 2024 US presidential election, and the trend of Sino-US relations.

On February 7, US President Biden delivered a State of the Union speech in Congress.

How does the United States view US-China relations?

Chinese response

　　In this State of the Union address, Biden mentioned China many times, such as "the United States seeks to compete with China rather than conflict", "let us be clear: winning the competition with China should unite us all" and so on.

　　Yuan Zheng told Chinanews.com that Biden said that the United States seeks to "compete" with China, which means that it will adopt various means to deal with it, but the United States also has limits, that is to say, it does not seek "conflict" with China. This is in line with the consistent position of the United States. Express.

　　Yuan Zheng further pointed out that when Biden delivered his speech, Sino-US relations were at a low point.

The Biden administration is also facing pressure from the Republican Party and China hardliners in the United States.

　　On the whole, Yuan Zheng pointed out that after adjustments by four administrations, the U.S. policy toward China has actually become a fixed trend, and it will be difficult to change it in the future.

On May 26, 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken delivered a speech, saying that China poses "the most severe long-term challenge" to the international order; Positioned as "primary strategic competitor".

　　"What the United States emphasizes is the impact China has on the international order dominated by the United States, or on the hegemony of the United States. To a large extent, the United States is fighting "precision warfare" ideologically, and then containing China in action. , win over American allies." Yuan Zheng said.

　　Yuan Zheng also believes that since China and the United States are the world's top two economies, the United States will not easily provoke a war. Such a risk is very high for the United States.

The world does not want a war between the two major powers, China and the United States.

　　Regarding Biden's statement in the State of the Union speech, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded on February 8 that China has always believed that Sino-US relations are not a zero-sum game in which you lose and I win, and you rise and fall. Success is an opportunity rather than a challenge for each other.

The vast earth fully accommodates the respective development and common prosperity of China and the United States.

　　Mao Ning also said that China does not evade and is not afraid of competition, but we are opposed to using competition to define the entire Sino-US relationship, slandering a country under the banner of competition, restricting the legitimate development rights of other countries, and even harming the global industrial chain. , Supply chain, this is not the act of a responsible big country.

Data map: On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters broke into the Capitol and caused riots.

The picture shows flames in front of the U.S. Capitol.

Biden pitches transcripts

American Dilemma

　　In this State of the Union speech, Biden vigorously promoted his "transcript" of his governance, while Republicans in the US Congress booed at the scene.

　　The Republican Party has made it clear that it will try to obstruct Biden's administration on any controversial issue.

Republicans in the House of Representatives are also planning a series of investigations into the Biden family and the current administration.

House Speaker McCarthy commented on Biden's speech, saying it was "one of the most partisan State of the Union addresses he's ever heard."

　　"Partisanship in the United States is becoming more superficial. Moreover, the two parties have become very polarized, and civil strife may break out if the polarization continues." Yuan Zheng said.

Biden should be aware of the transformation of power within the US Congress, as well as the polarization of US political parties and even society, and adopt more moderate language in his speech.

　　Yuan Zheng analyzed that due to deep-seated factors such as values ​​and demographic changes, issues such as gun violence, immigration crisis and abortion have had a profound impact on American society.

The Republican Party is mainly based on white voters, including some extremists who advocate "white supremacy." The Democratic Party represents immigrants from the middle and lower classes, and emphasizes issues such as aging and the introduction of talents from foreign countries.

　　On these issues, the two parties in the United States do not have any consensus, and the solutions are completely different. Now they regard it as the main issue of partisan struggle. "So, it is impossible for Biden to solve the problem. The two parties will attack each other, and it is difficult to reach a compromise." Yuan Zheng said.

　　However, Robert Kuhn believes that "by focusing on domestic issues, Biden has achieved the current results, but this does not mean that everything is all right. The Republican Party does control the House of Representatives by a narrow margin."

　　He went on to point out, "There are still some Republicans who may be considered centrists, certainly not the majority, but enough to allow some Republicans to cooperate with Biden and the Democrats in Congress on some issues."

On November 15, 2022, Trump delivered a speech at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, officially announcing his participation in the 2024 US presidential election.

Biden VS Trump 2.0?

"America may not want to see it again"

　　In the eyes of some foreign media and U.S. officials, Biden's State of the Union speech can be regarded as his 2024 U.S. presidential "election manifesto" to some extent.

　　The British "Guardian" commented that Biden's State of the Union address unofficially opened his presidential re-election campaign.

U.S. Rep. James Claiborne bluntly stated in an interview that he believes this speech is the "start of Biden's re-election campaign" and that "Americans will respond very positively."

　　So, what are the prospects for Biden's re-election campaign?

Robert Kuhn told Chinanews.com that most people believe that Biden will formally decide to run for re-election.

　　He pointed out that Biden's focus on the "heartland" of the United States and the needs of ordinary people has a certain appeal to the blue-collar class.

By catering to the economic interests of the relevant groups, Biden may win back some voters who would have voted for Republicans or Trump.

　　Meanwhile, as far as the Republican Party is concerned, Robert Kuhn believes that Trump's influence is weaker than it was in 2016 or even in 2020.

After announcing his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, it did not "arouse too much splash", but Trump's fundamentals are still not small.

　　Overall, Kuhn believes that both parties in the United States are uncertain about the next general election.

But most Americans would rather see two new faces competing, rather than a confrontation between the two "sixty old men" Trump and Biden.

However, he also predicted that from the current point of view, Biden's chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination may be greater than Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination.

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