Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly a year ago, Poland has lived under the weight of the Russian threat.
Since February 2022, eight million Ukrainians have crossed the border into Polish territory and most of NATO's aid goes through this country, which shares 535 kilometers of border with Ukraine.
While the prospect of a new Russian offensive in the spring in Ukraine occupies people's minds, Poland also seems to be preparing for a war.
Indeed, while Poland's support for Ukraine has so far been disproportionate, it stems from the belief that if Russia is not defeated, Poland itself will become a target.
These security concerns have led the country to modernize its military and increase defense spending to 4% of GDP this year – the highest share among any NATO country, according to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
"If we don't support Ukraine now, there will be new targets for [Vladimir] Putin," warns Paweł Jabłoński, Polish deputy foreign minister.
"A Russian politician recently suggested that Russia should 'denazify' six other countries after Ukraine, including Poland. What we are doing now, we are doing in solidarity and in support of the victims."
"The opinion in all Polish society is that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine by claiming territories, whether in Kherson or Zaporizhia, there will be a next war, and another after that...", explains as to him Łukasz Jankowski, a political journalist who covers the Polish parliament.
"The feeling is that our basic security and our independence will be at risk if Russia wins."
The threat from Belarus
The other fear is that the Russian troops will regroup the territories torn from Ukraine and "create a government like that of Minsk", explains Lukasz Jankowski.
After the breakup of the USSR, an international treaty between Russia and Belarus, signed in 1997 by President Boris Yeltsin and Alexander Lukashenko, laid the foundations for a union between the two former Soviet republics.
Both countries have retained their independence, but even without taking part directly, President Lukashenko has always supported Russia's military initiatives.
If the war in Ukraine were to drag on, some in Eastern Europe fear Russia could end up targeting the Baltic states.
“This war is not about the territory of Ukraine but about the independence of Eastern Europe. That is why we must support Ukraine and there should be no limits to this help,” believes Lukasz Jankowski.
Poland's support for Ukraine was particularly evident when it came to the country's humanitarian response.
It was in 2014, the year of the invasion of Crimea by Russia, that Poland began to see an increasing number of Ukrainians arriving on its soil.
“We opted for a very simple way to allow them to work,” says Paweł Jabłoński.
Following the Russian invasion last year, an influx of eight million refugees crossed the Polish border.
Many eventually made it to Romania and Moldova while others eventually returned home.
Recent arrivals have brought the total number of Ukrainians living in Poland to 3.37 million.
“In every Polish city you can meet someone from Ukraine. There was never any ghettoization. Their integration was practically seamless and today Ukrainians make up 8% of the total population in Poland,” says the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister.
A strong bond after dark episodes
“Many Poles who welcome Ukrainian refugees into their homes see Ukraine as a brand new nation, and they see the relationship between Poland and Ukraine as a brotherhood,” says Lukasz Jankowski.
The history between the two countries is however not without dark episodes.
During World War II, Poles were ethnically cleansed by Ukrainian nationalists;
the Poles, meanwhile, forcibly deported thousands of Ukrainians.
Decades later, starting in 1995, former Polish President Aleksander Kwaśniewski and his Ukrainian counterpart Leonid Kuchma formalized a historic reconciliation between their two countries.
>> To read - The reception of Ukrainian refugees in Poland, or how to heal the wounds of History
The close bond between Poland and Ukraine is based primarily on similar languages and a common history.
In 1997, both states enjoyed a visa-free regime.
Ukrainians' experience in a large Slavic country with functioning public institutions and a free market has also helped spur calls for reform in Ukraine, writes historian Timothy Snyder in his book "The Construction of Nations".
At the turn of the century, Poland resisted pressure from the European Union (EU) to end its visa-free regime with Ukraine, asserting its right to fulfill its obligations once it joined the EU. become official.
Once Poland joined the EU, its special arrangements with Ukraine ended.
"Selective Solidarity"
But while Poland has been a model in welcoming Ukrainian refugees, its hospitality towards refugees from other countries is questionable.
An Amnesty International report describes in detail the "selective solidarity" of Poland, which welcomes Ukrainians fleeing the war and refuses entry to other refugees, mainly from Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan, who trying to enter Poland through the border with Belarus.
Is there an element of self-interest in Poland's considerable aid to Ukraine?
Poland's deputy foreign minister brushes off that idea, saying instead that the number one priority is to defend Ukraine and central European states against a resurgent Russia.
"In 2021, Russia demanded that NATO withdraw from Central Europe. If our international position is strengthened as we help Ukraine win the war, we would be happy," he continues.
"If Germany had taken a stronger stance for Ukraine, we wouldn't have had to take on this role. I wish we didn't have to take on this role," says Paweł Jabłoński, quoting the power imbalance between Central Europe and Western Europe, whose citizens often hold leadership positions in European institutions.
"Strengthen NATO and be a driving force within it"
An opportunity to develop the role of Central Europe would be found in a future Polish-Ukrainian treaty, which could be signed in the weeks or months to come.
Comparing it to the Élysée Treaty between France and Germany, Paweł Jabłoński explains that it would be a vast agreement in terms of security, culture and the economy.
The treaty would "definitely not" be an alternative to NATO.
"We want to strengthen NATO and be a driving force within it," said the Deputy Foreign Minister.
When it comes to integrating Ukraine into the EU, Polish leaders and observers have no illusions.
"We know that corruption exists within the Ukrainian administration, but Poland [which joined the EU in 2004] can help thanks to its know-how," said Lucasz Jankowski.
With the enlargement of the EU, the citizens of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine have found themselves materially and symbolically separated from "Europe", according to Timothy Snyder, who notes that the hard border may have been useful to authoritarian leaders like Alexander Lukashenko.
By helping Ukraine, Poland takes into account "lessons that have been repeated in the past", says Paweł Jabłoński, "because otherwise we could be victims again".
Article adapted from English by Pauline Rouquette. Find the original version here.
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