Chinanews.com, Beijing, February 9th (Reporter Sun Zifa) Why did the Hittite Empire, which was once powerful more than 3,000 years ago, suddenly collapse and be destroyed?

The internationally renowned academic journal "Nature" recently published a research paper on climate change, arguing that a major drought in Anatolia from 1198 to 1196 BC may have been an important factor in the collapse of the Hittite Empire.

　　This study shows that extreme climate change may push populations beyond their adaptive limits and centuries-old practices to withstand crises.

A wooden structure near a hill in central Anatolia (Photo courtesy of John Marston) Springer Nature

　　Located in the semi-arid region of central Anatolia, the Hittite Empire was a powerful force in the ancient world, flourishing for five centuries until its collapse in 1200 BC, according to the paper.

The empire has long proven capable of withstanding conventional sociopolitical, economic, and environmental challenges, such as the threat of drought.

　　However, a 300-year shift to drier, cooler climates during this period is thought to be associated with the collapse of several ancient civilizations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East.

However, the precise details of the link between climate change and events in human history are unclear.

Wood samples from excavations in Central Anatolia, scans of the sampling area (image via Cornell University Tree Ring Lab).

Photo courtesy of Springer Nature

　　To assess the impact of the drought on the collapse of the Hittite Empire, the first and corresponding author of the paper, Sturt Manning of Cornell University in the United States, and his collaborators used stable isotope records and the Central Anatolian Subregional juniper tree-ring measurements to establish a high-resolution drought record.

They discovered an anomalous period of severe and prolonged drought that occurred around 1198-1196 BC.

　　The authors argue that this severe drought caused chronic food shortages, and that the inner core of the Hittite Empire, which relied on regional grain production and livestock, was particularly vulnerable to drought.

These shortages may have caused political, economic, and social unrest, as well as disease outbreaks, and may have ultimately contributed to the collapse of the empire.

Wood samples from excavations in Central Anatolia (image via Brita-Lorentzen).

Photo courtesy of Springer Nature

　　"Nature" published a "News and Views" article by peer experts at the same time, pointing out that the major drought in Anatolia may have demonstrated the vulnerability of human systems to unexpected, multi-year extreme climates.

As such, these extreme events may overwhelm human coping mechanisms, or be applicable to climate change faced both historically and in the present.

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