ISTANBUL -
The devastating effects of the earthquake that struck southern Turkey and northern Syria at dawn last Monday, which the Turkish authorities classified as one of the worst natural disasters in the country in a century, are still being felt.
Gradually unfolding, with the increase in the number of victims, the material losses incurred by construction and infrastructure increased.
The Turkish authorities announced the collapse of more than 7,000 buildings in the ten states affected by the earthquake, which had a magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter scale, and the aftershocks that followed it, some of which were more than 6 degrees in intensity.
Which deepened the damage and led to the collapse of more buildings, so that the government declared the affected states "stricken areas".
The infrastructure of the region was severely affected by the devastating earthquake, as many of the highways linking the stricken states were cracked.
Which impeded traffic, and the airports operating in the region were severely damaged, which put 4 of them - out of 7 - out of service, the most important of which is Antakya International Airport, which is one of the main export windows for Turkey, according to experts.
As for oil and natural gas pipelines, they were damaged by the earthquake, while bad weather conditions and damage to roads compounded the problem of fuel supplies in the affected areas. Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez announced that there was significant damage to electricity and natural gas transmission lines in the earthquake area.
Later, the authorities announced the stopping of oil flows from the Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline linking Iraq and Turkey, as a result of the damage to the line, before announcing the return of the line to work, and the Turkish Petroleum Pipelines Company announced stopping the flow of natural gas to the states affected by the earthquake. As a precaution.
For its part, the region's ports were greatly affected by the earthquake, as the port of Iskenderun in Hatay state was taken out of service, after a series of fires broke out, and the concerned authorities worked to extinguish them.
In terms of commodity and merchandise markets, the Turkish Ministry of Trade announced the launch of extensive inspections throughout the country after allegations of exorbitant increases in the prices of basic supplies, and this came after tweeters circulated news that some merchants had raised the prices of blankets, which witnessed heavy demand as a result of tens of thousands of people sleeping in the open. 150%.
For its part, the stock markets were not in a better condition, as the Istanbul Stock Exchange index fell 16% within 3 days of the earthquake, and it fell at the opening of the trading session yesterday, Wednesday alone, by 5%, which prompted the Istanbul Stock Exchange to take a decision to stop all transactions completely on Wednesday, after It partially suspended trading earlier.
Production centers affected
Observers and experts expected that the earthquake would have negative repercussions on the Turkish economy, which is already going through unfavorable conditions, and the areas affected by the earthquakes are among the most important production centers in Turkey, according to what was stated by the Turkish Minister of Industry and Technology, Mustafa Varank.
According to the Turkish journalist specializing in economics, Nagi Bakr, the ten Turkish states affected by the earthquakes include 151 companies among the 500 largest industrial companies in Turkey.
The share of the affected regions in the gross domestic product is about 9.3%, which is equivalent to 76 billion US dollars, according to the figures of the official Turkish Statistics Institute. These figures also show that these regions contribute 14% to the agricultural output, 11.2% to the industrial output, and 1 % of the tourism sector, and 8.5% of the total Turkish exports.
Mukhles Al-Nazer, a professor of economics and business administration residing in Istanbul, said that the cost of rescue and relief operations and repairing the destroyed infrastructure will put pressure on the Turkish public budget, as it is "an unexpected increase in spending, and all of this increases the budget deficit that entered the new year and is already suffering from standard deficit.
Al-Nazer warned - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that this would lead to a decline in the value of the Turkish lira in the medium term, and it had already witnessed a relatively limited decline after the earthquake, as it lost 1.5% of its value against the US dollar.
In terms of the Istanbul Stock Exchange, the economist pointed out that it witnessed mixed movements, as the shares of some companies fell and others rose, especially cement companies, which rose 21% in 24 hours, but this did not prevent the general index of the Stock Exchange tending to decline sharply.
For his part, the Turkish political writer Yusef Kateb Oglu (who is also a businessman) revealed to Al-Jazeera Net a list of negative economic effects that the Turkish economy is expected to witness during the coming period as a result of the devastating earthquake.
Cateoglu said that the wide area hit by the earthquake is densely populated, has agricultural land, and includes many industrial areas.
affected economic sectors
According to the Turkish businessman, the economic sectors that will be negatively affected by the devastating earthquake are summarized as follows:
Air traffic and air cargo, in light of the damage to 4 airports out of 7, the most important of which is Antakya Airport, which has become out of service due to cracked runways, and the same applies to Adiyaman Airport.
Maritime transport, the port of Iskenderun was closed for 3 consecutive days due to the outbreak of fires, which paralyzed the movement of maritime transport and the accumulation of containers inside.
The insurance companies sector, as there are an estimated 7 to 8 thousand buildings that were destroyed, most of which are insured, and it is expected that the insurance companies will incur compensation amounting to one billion dollars as an initial bill.
The industrial sector has been greatly affected, especially in Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş, where factories and factories with high production capacity have been damaged and are out of service, and preliminary figures show that more than 1,500 medium and small establishments have been damaged.
Damage to infrastructure, whether roads, bridges, or natural gas, electricity, and water transmission networks over a wide area equivalent to the size of England or Belgium.
It is also impossible to ignore the huge human cost that the region has lost among the victims, the wounded and the affected. This invaluable loss means pressure on the medical sector, which was affected by the earthquake, as some hospitals were leveled to the ground in Antakya and Rehaniyya, and it also necessarily means a loss in industrial employment.
For its part, the international credit rating agency "Fitch" estimated the economic losses of the earthquake at between 2 and 4 billion dollars, according to what was reported by the German News Agency.
sector most affected
The economic academic, Mukhlis Al-Nazer, expected that tourism companies and hotel groups would be the most affected, because there are expectations of a decline in tourism as a result of tourists' fear of coming to Turkey at the present time.
In addition to the impact of the decline in investment, Al-Nazir saw that all of the above will put pressure on the Turkish lira, the current account, and the general budget, stressing that most of the effects will be negative in the medium term, and will unfold more clearly after one to two months.
In light of the application of a special economic model in Turkey that is not applied in other countries, it is generally difficult to predict the form and size of the impact that the Turkish economy will witness after the earthquake, according to the economist.
And while the Turkish businessman Yusef Katabioglu acknowledged the continued negative impact on the markets until the wounds healed and the consequences of the earthquake were healed, he went on to say that the Turkish economy is able to overcome this ordeal with minimal losses as a result of its flexibility, and he expected that there would be a strong return to production, but this It will take some time.