Since February 6, two violent earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter scale have occurred in the area centered on the Kahramanmaras province in southern Turkey. Thousands of houses collapsed.

This is the largest earthquake that Turkey has suffered since the Erzincan earthquake in 1939. President Erdogan announced that the 10 provinces affected by the earthquake have entered a three-month state of emergency.

　　Turkey's general election will be held on May 14. If the election is held as scheduled, it means that the state of emergency in 10 Turkish provinces will continue until the presidential and parliamentary elections.

　　Analysts generally believe that Erdogan is currently facing the biggest political test since he has been in power for 20 years.

Related to Turkey's opposition to Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, many Western countries closed their embassies and consulates in Turkey and issued travel warnings not long ago, posing a diplomatic shock to Turkey.

The sudden earthquake not only had a huge impact on the local economy and people's livelihood, but also added more challenges and uncertainties to the general election.

　　Before the earthquake, Erdogan faced dual political challenges both domestically and diplomatically.

In terms of domestic affairs, the results of a poll conducted by the independent Turkish strategic and social research organization "MetroPOLL Aratirma" at the end of December 2022 showed that Erdogan's approval rate continued to decline, falling to 38.6%, and the proportion of people who did not approve of his work reached 57.2%.

Going into 2023, recent polls suggest that no candidate is likely to win the first round of the Turkish general election outright, with either of the two opposition candidates likely to defeat Erdogan in the general election .

Externally, the geopolitical situation facing Turkey is even more urgent.

Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States has long wanted Sweden and Finland to join NATO.

As a member of NATO, Turkey has not supported the two countries joining NATO.

For this reason, many Western countries "unanimously" temporarily closed their embassies and consulates in Turkey and issued travel warnings on the grounds of increased security threats.

Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said that the deliberate closure of consulates in Turkey by Western countries is obviously intended to put pressure on Turkey.

　　The sudden earthquake at this time is tantamount to making Turkey and Erdogan worse.

Atila Yesilada, an expert on the Global Resource Partners platform, said that the earthquake is a "black swan" event for Turkey, and it is impossible to predict whether it will lead to extreme consequences.

Although it is unclear whether the hardest-hit areas will hold elections as scheduled, the earthquake is likely to "completely reset" Turkey's economy and politics.

　　Sun Yuan, an assistant researcher at the Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang Foreign Studies University, said in an interview with reporters from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily on February 8 that the earthquake caused severe shocks in the Turkish stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market. The occurrence of the crisis has become more and more difficult, which has once again aggravated the already uncertain economic situation in the country.

As a result, the complex political and economic situation in Turkey will become more severe, which will inevitably bring greater ruling difficulties to the current President Erdogan, and at the same time bring greater uncertainty to Erdogan's election prospects.

　　Right now, Erdogan is facing an imminent and difficult task of disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction.

For example, the cost of reconstruction after the earthquake disaster could be as high as billions of dollars, which will make the Turkish economy already hit by 58% inflation even worse.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the economic losses caused by the strong earthquake to Turkey will reach 2% of Turkey's gross domestic product (GDP).

More economists predict that the superimposed impact of inflation and earthquake disasters will inevitably restrain Turkey's economic growth this year.

　　Erdogan's hope of winning the general election may depend on how he and the current government respond to the earthquake relief and post-disaster reconstruction.

Sun Yuan told reporters from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that the disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction work will be a "last stand" for Erdogan.

He said: "The earthquake is a crisis for Erdogan, and it may also be a turning point. If the disaster cannot be properly dealt with, his prospects for the general election will be in jeopardy; If we do a good job in earthquake relief and post-disaster reconstruction, and help the affected people return to normal life as soon as possible, Erdogan may be able to save the current relatively sluggish approval rating."

　　Some analysts believe that Erdogan and the Turkish government have rich experience in dealing with crises, and have dealt with various natural disasters such as earthquakes and fires before. status.

Experts from the Eurasia Group consulting company said that Erdogan responded quickly and coherently in the face of the crisis. If the current government can continue to maintain this momentum, Erdogan is very likely to promote him before the May 14 general election. image of a strong leader”.

Hasnan Malik, a strategist at Dubai-based research firm Tellimer, said that in a close election, the government's response to the emergency will shape the positions and attitudes of key middle voters, although the loyalty of most voters is already determined. .

　　Erdogan founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001 and served as its chairman, and won the general election the following year.

In March 2003, he became the prime minister of the Turkish government and began to dominate Turkish politics.

It is worth noting that Erdogan became the "man at the helm" of Turkey under the disastrous background. In 1999, Turkey suffered two strong earthquakes. In 2001, Turkey fell into a serious financial crisis. The Turkish government at that time did not respond effectively. , which is considered to be the decisive factor in the rise of Erdogan and the AK Party.

　　Newspaper, Beijing, February 8th

　　China Youth Daily·China Youth Net trainee reporter Zhao Anqi Source: China Youth Daily