The showdown is now on.

After showing their ability to mobilize on January 19 and 31, the opponents of the pension reform, led by the inter-union, intend to register their movement in the long term, Tuesday February 7 and Saturday February 11, to convince the government to give up backing down. the legal retirement age of 62 to 64 years.

If the bill has been debated in the National Assembly since Monday, its future is also well and truly played out in the street, according to Michel Pigenet, historian specializing in social movements, co-author of a "History of social movements in France (The Discovery, 2012).

>> To see: Retreats: efforts for all... and especially for all

“Normally, obviously, it is not the street that governs, but it has happened that it does. There are times when things change and at that time, we cannot ignore it. We saw it in particular in 1995”, recalls the historian.

However, major social successes have been rare since the beginning of the 21st century.

"The errors in the management of 1995 or in the episodes that followed one another led the rulers to learn lessons, whether in the way of initiating reforms or in the methods of maintaining order", analyzes Michel Pigenet, who also notes a weakening of the weight of the unions, symbolized at the end of 2018 by the eruption of the Yellow Vests movement.

>> To read: Pension reform: who are the winners and the losers?

The specialist in social movements nevertheless underlines that the current mobilization is exceptional in more ways than one.

Not only did it bring together, with 1.272 million people (according to the police), the largest number of demonstrators since the mobilization against the 2010 pension reform - 1.25 million demonstrators according to the police -, but its geographical distribution, with many small and medium-sized towns mobilized, borrows from the Yellow Vests.

"People who had never demonstrated in their lives took the decision to take to the streets, even though the last social movements had been rather violent. Undeniably, something is happening," he says.

From there to lead to a retreat of the government on a pension reform presented as “indispensable”?

For now, Emmanuel Macron and his Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, seem determined to get their bill passed.

It is impossible to know who will win, from the government or from the streets, this showdown which adds to a long list of social movements that have marked French political life for 30 years.

  • November-December 1995: the paralysis of the country partially halts the Juppé plan

The presentation, in November 1995, by Prime Minister Alain Juppé of a recovery plan for Social Security comprising additional levies on insured persons and an upheaval of its structures set fire to the powder, especially since it was accompanied a planned alignment of the pension schemes of civil servants and public service agents with private sector employees.

This is the beginning of an intense protest movement.

Trains and subways are paralyzed for more than three weeks.

At their peak, the demonstrations gather on December 12 between one million, according to the authorities, and two million people, according to the unions, with majority support from the public, according to the polls.

Long "right in his boots", Alain Juppé ends up withdrawing the measures affecting pensions, but maintains the rest of the plan.

>> To read: Pensions: after a record mobilization, the executive in clogging operation

  • 2003: despite a series of demonstrations, the Fillon reform aligns the public with the private

The Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, and his Minister of Labour, François Fillon, want to partially align the civil servants' pension scheme with that of the private sector.

The contribution period necessary to obtain a full pension must be gradually increased to 40 years.

From February to June 2003, a series of strikes mobilized the civil service.

Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators – one million, according to the authorities, to two million, according to the unions, at their peak on May 13 – protest, but the mobilization suffers from the lack of support from private sector employees, less concerned by the reform. .

The government also benefits from the union division, the CFDT choosing on May 15 to support the government.

The reform was finally adopted in July 2003.

  • February-March-April 2006: youth reject the CPE

Proposed in January 2006 in the wake of the new employment contract (CNE), the first employment contract (CPE) aims to improve the employment rate of people under 26 years of age.

The Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin, wishes to set up, after hiring a young person who has been unemployed for more than six months, a period of two years during which the employer can dismiss him without giving any reason.

The law was quickly adopted without a vote, in February, thanks to article 49.3 of the Constitution.

The youth, believing that the CPE would result in their precariousness, does not intend to stop there.

Two demonstrations bringing together between 218,000 and 1 million people were organized on February 7 and March 7, then a university strike movement quickly spread to several dozen establishments, the Sorbonne being occupied for three nights.

The anti-CPE mobilization is growing, in particular via an interprofessional strike organized at the end of March and demonstrations which bring together between 1 and 3 million people.

During a televised speech on March 31, the President of the Republic, Jacques Chirac, will end up announcing the promulgation of the law on equal opportunities creating the CPE, but that the first employment contract will not apply.

>> To read: Pensions: is the reform "indispensable", as the government claims?

  • 2010: in pain, the retirement age pushed back to 62

As in 2003, François Fillon is again in charge, but as Prime Minister this time.

Its bill, presented in June 2010, is supported by the Minister of Labour, Éric Woerth.

It provides for the gradual postponement of the legal retirement age from 60 to 62 years and the shift of the retirement age without discount from 65 to 67 years.

Massive, the demonstrations, which benefit from union unity, bring together even more people than in 1995 and 2003: between 1.2 and 3.5 million people, at the peak of the mobilization, on October 12.

They are accompanied by blockages of refineries, port terminals and fuel depots.

One in three service stations is dry at the height of the movement.

But the reform was adopted at the end of October.

  • February-June 2016: a labor law passed with forceps against the Assembly and the street

Presented in February 2016, the law carried by the Minister of Labor, Myriam El Khomri, must reform the Labor Code to, according to the government, promote employment.

This bill is considered by the unions as an attack on the rights of employees with the aim of making the labor market more flexible, in particular by facilitating dismissals.

If the bill also creates new rights, the text is massively rejected by the unions and numerous demonstrations bringing together several hundred thousand people are organized from February to June.

The demonstrations were marked by the birth of the Nuit Debout movement on the Place de la République in Paris – pacifist citizens trying to imagine a new form of society – but also by violent clashes between demonstrators and the police.

Despite the demonstrations and opposition within the socialist majority itself, the Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, decided to use 49.3 to adopt the text in May in the National Assembly, then again in July in second reading after its adoption in June in the Senate.

>> To see: The pension reform arrives at the National Assembly

: can the executive win?

  • November-December 2018: the Yellow Vests put down the carbon tax

The Yellow Vests movement was born in the fall of 2018 against the planned increase in the carbon tax on fuels, but quickly crystallized many dissatisfactions, in particular among many French people feeling a feeling of neglect.

The movement is particularly characterized by its geography: many inhabitants of small and medium-sized towns in rural or so-called peripheral areas who have never demonstrated in their lives are mobilizing on the roundabouts.

With 287,000 demonstrators during Act I of November 17, the Yellow Vests are impressive, but their number will only decrease thereafter to turn around a few tens of thousands of people.

A turning point, however, comes with the radicalization of the movement, in particular during Act III with clashes between demonstrators and police on the Champs-Élysées and on the Place de l'Etoile in Paris.

This day of December 1 is marked by scenes of chaos and by the ransacking of the Arc de Triomphe.

Taking fright, power retreats.

Emmanuel Macron announces on December 5 the cancellation of the increase in the carbon tax planned for 2019, then proposes new measures on December 10 to end the movement, which will continue despite everything for several more months.

  • December 2019-January 2020: facing retirement on points, demonstrators well helped by the Covid-19

In accordance with his campaign commitments, Emmanuel Macron is undertaking a systemic reform of the pension system at the end of 2019 to introduce a point-based pension.

Among the unions, only the CFDT is open to change, but it rejects, on the other hand, the parametric reform that Prime Minister Édouard Philippe wishes to add, which would consist of extending working hours.

On December 5, 2019, between 806,000 and 1.5 million people demonstrated against this “universal” point-based pension plan project.

On the 17th, between 615,000 and 1.8 million people marched again.

Among teachers, the strike has reached record rates since 2003. At the SNCF and the RATP, it continues during the end-of-year holidays and part of January to constitute the longest strike at the SNCF since its creation.

The mobilization also affects ports, refineries, Banque de France, Paris Opera and lawyers.

The bill was however passed without a vote thanks to the use of article 49.3, at the beginning of March, in first reading in the National Assembly.

But the reform is suspended by Emmanuel Macron due to the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic before being finally abandoned.

Retirement points to oblivion, Emmanuel Macron then changes his plans during the presidential campaign of 2022 by proposing to keep the current system, but by pushing back the legal age of departure to 65 years.

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