Some 19,000 officers have been deployed in southern Ethiopia to ensure proper follow-up to the referendum.
On Monday, February 6, more than three million citizens of southern Ethiopia, out of the country's 108 million, were called to the polls after a petition launched in six areas and five districts currently belonging to the Regional State of Nations , Nationalities and Peoples of the South (SNNPR).
It is one of 13 regional states in the country that is covered by the subdivision.
The stakes are high: if the "yes" wins, Ethiopia will have a fourteenth federal regional state, if we include the two "regional cities" of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa.
And of a new fragmentation within a country already undermined by inter-ethnic struggles.
The ballot, approved in August by the House of Federation, the upper house of the Ethiopian Parliament, was made possible under Article 47 of the 1994 Constitution which gives "every nation, nationality and people", "the right to establish their own state at any time".
It is on this legal basis that the main ethnic group of the region concerned, the Wolayta ethnic group, based itself in order to obtain more autonomy.
Map of the Federal Regions of Ethiopia © FMM Graphic Studio
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A vote without suspense
The Wolayta territories were united with Ethiopia in the early 1890s under the reign of Menelik II, after constant resistance.
Since the early 2000s, members of the ethnic group have been calling in vain for the creation of a specific regional state.
"After having been strongly mobilized in recent years by opposing the government, they have obtained part of what they are demanding through this vote", explains Sabine Planel, researcher at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) and specialist in Ethiopia.
The outcome of the ballot is no mystery.
“If the vote takes place, it is because there is a prior agreement on this subject, asserts Gérard Prunier, historian and specialist in the Horn of Africa. The vote will be in favor of 80 or 90%, like that has been the case for the other referendums".
Because this is not the first time that referendums of this type have been held in this region of southern Ethiopia.
Since current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, two new regional states have emerged after similar consultations.
The Sidama region in 2019 then that of the South-West in March 2022, also separated from the SNNPR to which they belonged.
With this new referendum, this southern region, made up of 56 ethnic groups, will again be divided, this time into three regions.
"And it's not over because we are still waiting for another referendum in the regional state of the SNNPR, continues Sabine Planel. In the long term,
we are going to create four or even five new states instead of solving the many problems that agitate this federal region of 20 million inhabitants regularly prey to ethnic conflicts.
Such a scenario goes against the credo carried by the government, which wants to unify in order to manage better.
But we have seen, since he took charge, that the executive is extremely good at saying one thing and doing the exact opposite.
Ethnic tendencies exacerbated by Addis Ababa
For many observers, Abiy Ahmed's policy is directly responsible for the flare-up of ethnic claims that we are witnessing.
This situation "is the result of a policy of deceptive liberalization carried out by the Prime Minister as soon as he came to power: he has never ceased to support the demands of ethnic groups through his numerous tours, particularly in the south of the country, to then oppose their political recognition. In doing so, he only exacerbated the claims of ethnic groups."
Another problem, the creation of these new interethnic regions is likely to lead to new subjects of discord, to open new breaches.
"The choice of the capital, that of the portfolio or that of the ethnic groups to represent the elected officials, risks fueling the already numerous claims. The expectations of each of the ethnic groups will be extremely difficult to satisfy and will lead to increased local conflict. The only question of the capital is so crucial that some voters in this region have already announced that if their city was not chosen as the capital, they would take to the streets".
One question remains: why does the Prime Minister, who poses as a unifier of the country, not change the Constitution to put an end to these referendums?
“Because this constitution suits him, concludes Sabine Planel bluntly. It allows him to continue an extremely authoritarian mode of government in which he plays the game of alliances tied against each other, as the previous regime did. is also a worthy heir. He constantly plays on alliances and coalitions to stay in power."
In short, it is a question of dividing and conquering.
According to the National Election Commission of Ethiopia (NEBE), the results will be released on February 15, 2023.
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