Text/Li Xiaoyu
In the early hours of the 6th local time, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Turkey with a focal depth of 20 kilometers.
It was the largest earthquake in the world this year and one of the strongest to hit Turkey in 100 years.
As of press time, it is reported that the strong earthquake has killed 284 people and injured 2320 people.
The tremors were also felt in many places in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan.
According to the confirmation of the Chinese embassy in Turkey, no Chinese citizens were injured or injured in the earthquake in Turkey.
How big is the economic impact of the 7.8-magnitude earthquake?
Turkey originally had a good economic situation. It is another booming emerging economy after the "BRIC countries" such as China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa. It enjoys the title of "new diamond country" in the international community.
However, under the epidemic in recent years, the Turkish economy has faced tremendous pressure.
The most prominent problem is high inflation.
At present, Turkey is one of the countries with the most serious inflation in the world. The consumer price index (CPI) in December last year increased by 64.27% compared with the same period in 2021.
In addition, the high unemployment rate and high foreign debt have also caused troubles to the local economy.
Turkey's economic woes are directly related to the slump in tourism.
Tourism is a major economic pillar of Turkey and one of the important sources of foreign exchange earnings.
Germany, Russia and the UK are the most important sources of foreign tourists to Turkey.
However, due to the continuous epidemic, frequent violent terrorist attacks, and Russia's economic crisis, Turkey's tourism industry has been severely impacted.
In 2020, the number of foreign tourists visiting Turkey has dropped by nearly 70% year-on-year.
It will not be until 2022 that the total number of tourists received by Turkey will basically return to the pre-epidemic level.
Just when Turkey wanted to "strike while the iron is hot" to accelerate the recovery of tourism and the economy, the United States recently issued a warning: Turkey's largest city Istanbul and other places may have attacks against Westerners.
As a result, Western countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy have closed their consulates in Istanbul, and some countries have issued security warnings about Turkey.
This is nothing less than a "cold spring" for the newly revived Turkish tourism industry.
The 7.8-magnitude earthquake is tantamount to worsening the tourism industry.
According to reports, after the 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Turkey, two more earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above occurred, causing many buildings to collapse, houses to be twisted and deformed, and large pieces of rubble to pile up on the road.
The earthquake was also felt in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
In addition to damage to tourism, the economic impact of the earthquake also includes large reconstruction costs.
Against the backdrop of the serious problems of high inflation, high unemployment and high foreign debt, the impact of the earthquake on the Turkish economy is not optimistic.
What cards can Turkey play?
"Internal troubles and external troubles" are bothering the economic recovery at the same time. How will Turkey deal with it?
A few days ago, Turkey’s foreign minister summoned the ambassadors of the United States, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, Italy, and Germany to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to the closure of their consulates in Istanbul by Western countries.
This rare move of "singling out the nine western countries" caused an uproar for a while.
It is worth noting that one of the distinctive features of Turkish President Erdogan is that he does not play cards according to routines.
Turkey's inflation rate once exceeded 80%. Generally speaking, interest rates should be raised at this time to stabilize inflation. However, Erdogan did the opposite and insisted on cutting interest rates instead of raising them.
He fired several central bankers who opposed rate cuts.
Against the background of high inflation, the central bank of Turkey has cut interest rates four times in a row in the past few months, lowering the benchmark interest rate by 500 basis points to 9%.
This set of "Erdogan economics" directly shocked Western economists, and finally they had to admit that Turkey is launching a comprehensive challenge to classical economics.
Under the influence of "Erdogan economics", it remains to be seen what new "extraordinary measures" Turkey will introduce to promote economic recovery in the future.