In 2022, although the German economy is facing many challenges such as the Ukrainian crisis, a sharp rise in energy prices, and a shortage of skilled workers, it will generally gain a firm foothold and achieve positive growth.
Among them, it includes not only objective factors such as climate change, but also the bailout measures introduced by the German government and its own strong economic resilience.
Entering 2023, whether Germany will fall into economic recession has attracted much attention.
This depends not only on Germany's own economic resilience, but also on the progress of the Ukraine crisis, the energy crisis, and international economic cooperation.
Preliminary statistics released by the German Federal Statistical Office recently show that after price adjustments, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) will actually grow by 1.9% in 2022 compared with the previous year.
The German Federal Statistical Office said in a statement that despite the many challenges, the German economy will recover in 2022, growing by 0.7% compared to 2019 before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
"The overall economic situation in Germany in 2022 is mainly affected by the crisis in Ukraine, with the consequences of sharply higher energy prices. In addition, it is also affected by increased material and transport bottlenecks, sharply higher food prices, shortages of skilled workers and, although it has eased, the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. The impact of the epidemic." Ruth Brand, head of the German Federal Statistical Office, said, "Despite a series of persistent difficulties, the German economy has generally stood firm in 2022."
According to data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the German service industry and manufacturing industry will achieve growth in 2022, but the construction industry will decline due to factors such as shortages of raw materials and skilled labor, and high construction costs.
In addition, private consumption expenditure is the most important driver of economic growth in Germany in 2022.
In this regard, some analysts pointed out that the smooth maintenance of positive growth of the German economy in 2022 is the result of multiple factors intertwined, including objective factors such as climate change, as well as the bailout measures introduced by the German government and its own strong economic resilience. wait.
On the one hand, European countries, including Germany, have generally experienced mild winters this year, resulting in an unexpected reduction in energy demand and falling energy prices.
Since last Christmas, the temperature in Germany has gradually increased, which is abnormal compared with the winter temperature in previous years.
On January 1, 2023, the temperature in Germany will exceed 20 degrees Celsius.
In response, the World Meteorological Organization stated that such mild temperatures at the turn of the new year had not been observed in Germany since records began in 1881.
The arrival of warm winter is a timely help for Germany, which is short of natural gas supply.
Gas reserves in Germany are more ample than in previous years as warmer weather reduces demand for gas.
According to data from the German Federal Network Agency, as of now, the demand for natural gas in Germany this winter has been far lower than initially expected, and the filling level of German gas storage facilities recorded on February 1 is still around 79%.
The German Federal Network Agency said that the supply of natural gas in Germany is still stable, and the possibility of a natural gas shortage this winter will become smaller and smaller.
Affected by the abnormal warming of the winter climate in Europe, the natural gas futures price of the Dutch Ownership Transfer Center (TTF), known as the "European natural gas price benchmark", has been falling all the way since January, falling for several weeks in a row. On January 18, it fell by 6.1%. near the lowest level in 16 months.
At present, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures price is about 56.50 euros per megawatt-hour, which is the lowest level since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out.
On the other hand, since the energy crisis, the German government has successively launched several rounds of burden reduction and rescue plans to brake and intervene in domestic natural gas and electricity prices, which have achieved good results.
It is understood that the German government formulated a draft law on the "braking" mechanism of natural gas and electricity prices in November last year. At present, the draft has been voted and passed by the German Bundestag and will come into force this year.
According to the law, the "brake" mechanism for natural gas and electricity prices in Germany will be officially launched from March 1, 2023 and will last until April 30, 2024, but the price subsidy will come into effect from January 2023.
At the EU level, after several months of intense negotiations, EU member states finally reached an agreement on the EU natural gas price ceiling at the end of last year, and decided to set the natural gas price ceiling at 180 euros per megawatt-hour to help European consumption. Investors and businesses respond to high energy prices.
The price limit mechanism will be launched on February 15, 2023. The introduction of this mechanism will also have a certain impact on the "cooling" of energy prices in Germany.
In addition, Germany's own strong economic resilience, especially the service industry that has recovered rapidly, has also played a role in promoting the positive growth of the German economy, which has prevented the German economy from recession to a certain extent.
Stephen Kuss, deputy director of the Kiel Institute for World Economics in Germany, said, "The German service industry can continue to recover from the downturn of the new crown epidemic, which not only supports the growth trend of the German economy, but also promotes a significant increase in private consumption."
As for the manufacturing sector, Stephen Cuse said that the previous orders had a stabilizing effect on the German industrial economy, otherwise the industrial economy would be more affected by the weakness of new business.
The German Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection recently stated in a press release that after a weak start in the fourth quarter of last year, German industrial output will stabilize from November 2022, business sentiment will improve, and the gradual easing of material shortages is expected to further promote Industrial activity in the coming months.
Entering 2023, as the largest economy in the euro zone, whether Germany will fall into economic recession has attracted much attention.
According to the annual economic report recently released by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, the German government's economic forecast for 2023 is better than the forecast for autumn.
The report believes that due to the impact of energy prices and interest rates, Germany's economy will slow down this year, but it will still achieve economic growth of 0.2%, while the previous forecast was that Germany's GDP will decline by 0.4% this year.
In this regard, experts analyzed that as the European Central Bank continued to raise interest rates and further suppressed demand, Germany's consumption, investment, and imports and exports all tended to slump.
The German economy may continue to slow down in the first quarter of this year. Combined with the economic downturn in the fourth quarter of last year, the German economy may experience a "technical recession."
Whether the German economy, which is on the verge of recession, will fall into a substantial recession in the future depends not only on Germany's own economic resilience, but also on the progress of the Ukraine crisis, the energy crisis, and international economic cooperation.