The events surrounding the Chinese hot air balloon over US airspace are just the latest in a long line of failures by both China and the US to manage their relationship with each other.

There are great risks to a bad relationship between the US and China, and the worst among them is the risk of a military conflict.

Unfortunately, the US security establishment is discussing a Chinese military action against Taiwan as a real threat.

A US Air Force general, Mike Minihan, recently predicted a conflict between China and the US as early as 2025, in a leaked report that has gained some attention.

He can see into the future as little as anyone, but he is not alone in his prognosis.

The U.S. military seems to be paying increasing attention to strengthening positions in the Pacific, with the cape pointed at China.

The latest examples of that are strengthened military cooperation with Japan, and the Philippines.

Frosty relationship for a long time

The last time US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met his Chinese counterpart, in 2021 in Anchorage, he was berated in front of the assembled world press.

China's top foreign affairs official at the time, Yang Jiechi, accused him and the United States of trying to teach China a lesson, saying China is no longer in it.

It was just one low water mark of several in recent years.

Beginning under the Trump administration, the United States has imposed trade restrictions on China, which the Biden administration maintained, and expanded barriers on Chinese green energy technology, semiconductors and against Chinese technology companies.

Lawmakers in Washington see China as a direct threat to American interests.

Today, the level of ambition for meetings between China and the US is low.

In the past, US representatives used to plan for economic deals, new business opportunities and expanded cooperation in various fields when they entered meetings with Chinese counterparts.

But now it's mostly about coexistence and avoiding conflicts.

A recurring heading for the meetings is usually "managing the competition between the countries".

Taiwan visit made China see red

After House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan this summer, the relationship hit something of a rock bottom, and Beijing suspended existing dialogue with Washington, launching a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan.

After that, persistent and tentative contacts at a lower diplomatic level meant that President Biden and President Xi could finally meet during the G20 in Bali in November.

According to the American newspaper Wall Street Journal, Xi Jinping spent that meeting talking almost exclusively about the relationship with Taiwan, and defending China's political system.

But the fact that the meeting even took place was a success in itself, and it seemed to open up a more normal contact between the countries' foreign administrations at least.

Until the balloons came.

Today, Sunday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson says that the US shooting down the Chinese airship is an "obviously excessive measure, which violates normal procedure in international contacts," and that it: "reserves the right to take appropriate countermeasures."

The US is believed to be conducting extensive reconnaissance along China's coasts, and a possible response could be for China to seize or stop US equipment in what it considers to be Chinese territorial waters.

A punctured hot air balloon is a good analogy for the relationship between the world's two superpowers right now.