Barthélémy Philippe, edited by Loane Nader 06:28, February 03, 2023
Against the background of international conflict with the war in Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis, the economies of the European Union and France are proving to be more resilient than expected.
The European Central Bank even forecasts a rebound in its interest rates by half a point for the month of March, after the same increase in February according to its president Christine Lagarde.
Despite the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, the economy of the euro zone is holding up well at the start of the year, Christine Lagarde welcomed Thursday, on the sidelines of the announcement of an increase in the key rates of the ECB. .
A visible trend in France where, despite the sharp drop in household consumption, GDP remained in the green narrowly at 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
As for annual growth, it reached 2.6% according to INSEE.
Initially, the institute expected a recession of 0.2% in the fourth quarter, and annual growth of 2.5%.
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The government built its 2023 budget around a very optimistic 1% growth forecast, and that scenario has earned some credence.
Last fall, the International Monetary Fund and the Banque de France predicted a much lower growth rate.
But the tide may be turning because the IMF has just raised its forecast for France, from 0.5 to 0.7% growth, a significant increase.
The fall in household consumption worries
Of course, the French economy is no longer surprising: unemployment continues to fall and business start-ups are breaking records.
"So it's true that with the figures for the end of 2022, we are starting 2023 starting from a little higher than expected", explains to the microphone of Europe 1 Julien Pouget, head of the economic department at INSEE.
“What will come into play? The evolution of the energy situation and inflation. If inflation were to come down, purchasing power gains could come back and therefore, this would generate a little support for consumption households", presses the specialist.
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And at this stage, household consumption is showing worrying signs and for good reason, in the fourth quarter of 2022, it fell sharply, particularly with regard to food purchases.