Introduction to translation
Day after day, the "Wagner" mercenary group is at the forefront of the Russian war in Ukraine, indifferent to the losses in its ranks, given that most of its current recruits are convicted criminals.
At the same time, however, the group is transforming from an organization based on the concept of special operations into a regular force challenging the influence of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.
Patrick Tucker, military technology editor at Defense One, explores the dimensions of this transformation and its impact on the course of the conflict.
Translation text
A high-ranking US official in the White House said in an interview with reporters at the end of last year that the "Wagner" mercenary group, run by "Yevgeny Prigozhin," an ally of Russian President "Vladimir Putin", is making "growing gains" in the Ukrainian "Bakhmut" region.
However, the bulk of these gains were attributed to Prigozhin's reckless attitude to the lives of his soldiers.
The official added, "It is clear that the Russian army has retreated and is in the back seat, and that Wagner's forces have become in the forefront, and then began attacking Bakhmut in late May 2022."
Since then, the mercenary forces have made small gains, but they have come at a very high cost in terms of losses, the US official said.
The official indicated that the structure of the mercenary group is most likely the reason why the leaders are not disturbed by the losses, as he said: "We believe that (Prigozhin) devoted tens of thousands of convicted criminals to this military effort, and we also believe that 90% of the losses are among Wagner's ranks." "Convicted criminals in fact. So the Russians are working hard in Bakhmut, and the Ukrainians are still fighting valiantly to protect it. He (Prigozhin) was more willing to be more aggressive with Russian convicts than the Russian army was willing to do the same with its soldiers."
The shady mercenary force has garnered a lot of new attention since the war began.
At first, neither Prigozhin nor Russian President Putin acknowledged any connection with the group, which has been active in Syria, Libya and elsewhere in Africa as well.
But last September, a video emerged of Prigozhin personally recruiting people for Wagner inside a Russian prison (in which he pledged that criminal sentences against prisoners would be overturned if they volunteered for the war).
Prigozhin told the prisoners, according to eyewitnesses, "I will take you out of here alive, but I will not always bring you back alive."
(This undated footage circulating on social media is believed to be the first close look at the recruitment of prisoners for the Wagner mercenary group, an operation widely reported since last summer, in which between 7,000-10,000 Russian prisoners were recruited from Including a convicted cannibal).
Prigozhin was able to secure T-90 tanks and other equipment for his forces in Ukraine from the Russian Defense Ministry, which is notable given that Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are bitter rivals.
Michael Kaufman, director of the Russian Studies Program at the Central News Agency, told Defense One that he believes Prigozhin is "using this opportunity to raise his profile and show how incompetent Shoigu and Russia's chief of staff Valery Gerasimov are."
Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov (right) and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (Anatolia)
You compete with the army when you advance
A military official working with the United States government (on condition of anonymity) said that the operations of the Wagner Group in Ukraine show its increasing transformation into a force similar to the Russian army, stressing: “Wagner's acquisition of more advanced equipment such as tanks and fixed-wing aircraft indicates that Wagner is developing from an organization Grounded in the concept of Special Operations Forces, as demonstrated in Syria and Africa, to rival it in order to become a conventional force integrating diverse weapons.This would then enable Prigozhin to develop his own parallel security base independent of the Kremlin, which supports Prigozhin in His competition is with the Russian Ministry of Defense and Shoigu.”
The military official added that the effectiveness of the Wagner group “depends on the context of its forces and its mentality. Wagner elements are effective in what they are supposed to do (as special forces), as Wagner prisoners motivated by the desire to obtain freedom from prison have higher morale and are more effective than hordes of men with disabilities.” Low morale (who were mobilized by the Russian army). Contract soldiers are more effective than Wagner prisoners."
Kaufman also attributes Wagner's success compared to the Russian army only to Prigozhin's aggressiveness, but says that "in some cases, Wagner was more effective because its fighters had previous experience and better equipment than the regular forces."
Yevgeny Prigogine (Getty Images)
While Wagner fared better than the reluctant, hastily-mobilized Russian conscripts, this does not mean that Wagner's fighters do their job better than the army.
Prigozhin himself admitted this recently in a leaked interview, in which he said that the Ukrainian resistance in Bakhmut is very strong, and therefore his forces are unable to penetrate it.
(The Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published an interview with Prigozhin in which he stated that Wagner's forces in Bakhmut were unable to penetrate the Ukrainian defenses. Prigozhin stated that the operations in Bakhmut were very draining for him, because every house in Bakhmut was like a "fortress", and because the Ukrainians They put defense lines every ten meters, which obliges the Russian forces to clear one building after another. This represents a very important turning point for Prigozhin, and the first time that the man admits that Wagner's forces in Bakhmut did not make any real gains.)
And blame him when you stumble
Prigozhin blamed the aforementioned video on the lack of armored vehicles, citing the reasons for the slow and costly progress of his group.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted in an assessment published Jan. 3 that Prigozhin appeared to pave the way for blaming the Defense Department for the botched attack.
According to the assessment, “Wagner soldiers told Prigozhin that they were unable to penetrate the Ukrainian lines at Bakhmut due to insufficient armored vehicles, ammunition and supplies of 100mm rounds.” This statement sought to absolve the Wagner Group and Prigozhin of personal responsibility by attributing their failure to tighten their grip. Bakhmut refers to larger Russian resource distribution problems that both Russian and Ukrainian sources have been discussing since late December,” according to the institute’s assessment.
The Institute for the Study of War also stated at the beginning of this winter that Wagner's progress may have reached its "climax" in the Bakhmut region, which means that it is moving towards strengthening its current positions, and that it has stopped trying to win any new areas.
Either way, the fighting is likely to remain raging in Bakhmut.
"Some thought that the fighting would die down and stop in the winter, but we have said, over and over again, that we do not believe that this will happen, and this has already been proven, as the fighting is still raging," said the Institute for the Study of War assessment.
(According to the institute's latest report, issued on January 28, the Wagner group has not made new gains since it took over the town of "Solidar" on the 12th of the same month. There are also video recordings a week ago showing the presence of Russian airborne forces as they launched Military efforts in the Bakhmut region along with the Wagner forces, in what appears to be an attempt to speed up the pace of operations and support the faltering Wagner forces there).*
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*Translator's note
Translated by: Karim Mohamed
This report is translated from Defense One and does not necessarily reflect the location of Meydan.