"Social Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Social Situation in 2023" released——

The proportion of college students who want to go to third- and fourth-tier cities for employment is on the rise

　　The Institute of Sociology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Sciences Literature Publishing House recently jointly released the "Social Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Social Situation in 2023" (hereinafter referred to as the "Blue Book").

The blue book pointed out that college students have obvious employment geographical preferences, and college students who want to go to first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and second-tier economically developed cities still account for the majority, but this proportion is slowly declining.

Although the proportion of college students who want to work in third- and fourth-tier cities, small counties, grass-roots towns and rural areas is relatively small, it is on the rise.

　　According to data from the Ministry of Education, the number of college graduates nationwide in 2023 is expected to reach 11.58 million, an increase of 820,000 from the 2022 class.

　　Why is there an upward trend in the tendency of college graduates to third- and fourth-tier cities?

Will this be a new signal for the group of over ten million graduates?

Reporters conducted an investigation.

Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities are still the first choice

　　Liu Yan, who lives in Zhengzhou, Henan, majored in teacher training at university and is preparing to participate in the local teacher recruitment.

She said: "I definitely want to give priority to the first- and second-tier cities. If you don't pass the exam, you can also accept the third- and fourth-tier cities close to home."

　　"Graduates who have just graduated from university, although they cannot fully understand the relationship between city grades and careers, they can always judge the difference in long-term and short-term employment benefits in various cities." Wei Guoxue, deputy director of the Social Policy Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said , Entering a first-tier city will face fierce competition, and the salary level and living comfort may not be friendly, but you can expect a higher development ceiling and a wider career space, and there is more room for maneuver in the event of job-hopping or unemployment.

The competitive pressure for graduates to seek jobs in third- and fourth-tier cities is relatively small, but there are also limitations in that the labor market is small and restricts long-term development space.

　　"When graduates choose between first-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities, they are essentially weighing the long-term and short-term pros and cons of their careers, not that first-tier cities are no longer attractive." Wei Guoxue said frankly.

　　Although the willingness to work in third- and fourth-tier cities has increased, the blue book shows that in 2021, 34.1% of college students want to work in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and 39.27% ​​want to go to second-tier provincial capital cities or non-provincial capital cities with more developed economies. , totaling more than 70%.

This shows that most college students still prefer "traditional" big cities.

　　According to Wei Guoxue's analysis, first-tier cities' resource agglomeration and allocation capabilities have never stopped growing, and the attractiveness of the workplace has also continued to increase, intensifying the already fierce competition.

Therefore, when graduates feel that long-term expected benefits cannot offset short-term competition losses, their willingness to move to third- and fourth-tier cities will increase.

Using hometown as a reference to compare the advantages and disadvantages of employment among cities

　　Zhao He, who lives in Jinan, is about to graduate from university. During the period of looking for a job, he chooses a job based on the city where his family lives as the minimum standard.

"Unless you are a civil servant, you might as well work in your hometown if you go to other third- and fourth-tier cities."

　　Does the reluctance to leave their hometown mean that this year's graduates are more "Buddhist"?

　　"For graduates, there is no more familiar frame of reference than their home city." Wei Guoxue said frankly that graduates leave their hometowns to work in unfamiliar cities. In addition to adapting to the local environment, they also need to reconstruct their social networks. In the short term, they may have to work alone Assuming difficulties and risks, these things seem subtle, but they mean costs for individuals. If the income of the employment city is lower than that of the home city, it is definitely a loss-making decision to go to work in a foreign country, and rational graduates will try their best to avoid it.

　　Wei Guoxue said: "It is very difficult to compare the advantages and disadvantages of employment between cities, and it is very subjective. Some conclusions are even hearsay. It is a rational behavior to compare with the hometown as a reference."

Choosing a job city is not a final decision

　　Recently, universities such as Tsinghua University, Nanjing University, and Shanghai Jiaotong University have successively released reports on the employment quality of graduates in 2022.

　　In these reports, the implementation rate of graduation destinations of colleges and universities in 2022 is above 83%, and the "basic market" of college graduates' employment is stable, and it shows a trend of taking root in the west.

Among them, the number of college students from Xi'an Jiaotong University who went to the Midwest for employment accounted for 59.52%, and the proportion of students from Shanghai Jiaotong University who went to the Midwest for employment also hit a record high.

　　Consistent with the report on the employment quality of colleges and universities, the blue book also shows that college graduates in the past three years tend to seek employment in third- and fourth-tier cities.

In 2018, 7.29% of college students want to work in third- and fourth-tier cities, and by 2021, this proportion will rise to 11.77%.

　　"There are several key factors that have a greater impact on graduates, driving graduates to turn their attention to third- and fourth-tier cities." Wei Guoxue analyzed that the marginal development capabilities of cities and the intensity of employment competition are changing, and first-tier cities are gradually becoming mature and qualitative. , economic growth is slowing down, the speed of release of high-quality jobs is slowing down simultaneously, the labor market has higher requirements for the threshold of graduate education, and job hunting competition is becoming increasingly fierce. Although the overall development level of third- and fourth-tier cities is not high, their development speed is relatively high faster, good for employment and less competition.

　　"The digital economy has to a certain extent downplayed the impact of distance and location on careers. The proportion of the digital economy in the national economy has continued to increase, creating a large number of new jobs scattered in third- and fourth-tier cities. Graduate salaries, opportunities, The difference between the development space and the first-tier cities is not obvious.” Wei Guoxue reminded that the type of city to work in is not a final decision, but multiple games.

The new generation of post-2000 graduates have more flexible career choices and faster job switching. No matter whether they are in first-tier cities or third- and fourth-tier cities, it is impossible to quickly lock in their careers. They are willing to work in third- and fourth-tier cities, and they can also return to first-tier cities. city.

　　(Reporter Chen Peng, correspondent Lu Shanqing)