Observations are spreading that the United States and China may wage war in 2025, two years later.
It started with a memo from a senior US Air Force general.
According to the Washington Post, US Air Mobility Command's Gen. Michael Minihan recently sent a memo to soldiers saying the US could wage war with China within two years.
He wrote, "There is a possibility that the United States may not capture Chinese President Xi Jinping's desire for war."
"I hope I'm wrong," he said, but "my gut feeling is that we're going to fight in 2025."
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▲ The Washington Post reported on the 27th that US General Minnie Hearn warned of the possibility of war with China within two years.
"Possibility of invasion of China after Taiwan election"... "Not a Representative Opinion"
General Minihun cited Taiwan's presidential election next year as the basis.
In the 2024 Taiwan presidential election, if the Democratic Progressive Party, which has insisted on Taiwan independence, regains power, China can embark on an armed reunification.
He claimed, "President Xi Jinping, who secured a third term, set up a war-related advisory committee in October last year."
There will also be a US presidential election in 2024, which will distract US attention and increase the possibility of China's invasion of Taiwan, he added.
As General Minihun's memo spread on social media, the controversy spread, and the US military began to evolve.
A Pentagon spokesperson said, "The United States is working with our allies to preserve a peaceful Indo-Pacific region." said.
However, the controversy does not subside as senior Republicans in the United States come to the aid of General Minihun's predictions.
Michael McCall, a Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, appeared on TV on the 29th and said, "China really wants reunification with Taiwan."
"America will pay a heavy price"... "The possibility of an invasion within 1-2 years is low"
China has also started to solidify internal solidarity.
China's state-run Global Times wrote in an editorial on the 30th that "General Miniheon's argument cannot be viewed as nonsense" and that "the US military is making practical preparations for a military clash between China and the US to prevent Chinese reunification of Taiwan." .
"After World War II, there were 248 armed conflicts in 153 regions around the world between 1945 and 2001, of which 201, or 81%, were fought by the United States," it claimed.
“The price the US will have to pay far outweighs the gains from oppressing China,” he warned.
The possibility of China's invasion of Taiwan cannot be ignored, but the prevailing view is that the possibility of an invasion within a year or two is low.
It is an analysis that Russia will not be able to go to war easily because China is also watching the situation where Russia is struggling in the Ukraine war right now.
Even at the beginning of the Ukrainian war, China expected that Russia would end the war in a short time, but it saw that Ukraine's resistance, supported by the West, was formidable.
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Above all, we cannot guarantee that China's naval power is superior to that of the US 7th Fleet, which governs the Western Pacific.
Equipped with aircraft carriers, Aegis cruisers, amphibious assault ships, and nuclear-powered attack submarines, the 7th Fleet is considered the most powerful force in the world.
China launched its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, last year, but it has yet to attain operational capability.
China also realized the power of the US military during the visit of then-US House Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan in August of last year.
The US military deployed four battleships, including the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, in the Philippine Sea close to Taiwan, and Chinese media reported that "almost all electronic warfare equipment of the Chinese military did not operate normally due to the electronic warfare event of the US carrier fleet."
Recently, the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) assumed that China invaded Taiwan in 2026, and as a result of turning 24 simulations, the Chinese invasion appeared to be a failure.
U.S. House Speaker's visit to Taiwan... China warns of ultra-hardline response
Tensions between the US and China surrounding Taiwan are rising again.
This is because House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Republican who took over as House Speaker from former Speaker Pelosi, is expected to visit Taiwan this spring.
Chairman McCarthy had previously declared that "if he becomes the Speaker of the House, he will visit Taiwan," and reports that Chairman McCarthy is preparing for a visit to Taiwan this spring are continuing inside and outside the United States.
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▲ China's state-run Global Times reported on the 27th that "the US provocation could lead to a 'qualitative change' in which China solves the Taiwan issue at once."
China has warned of an ultra-strong response.
The official Global Times predicted, "If Chairman McCarthy visits Taiwan, the response from China will be stronger than when former Chairman Pelosi went to Taiwan."
When Chairman Pelosi visited in August last year, China conducted high-intensity military exercises in the form of encircling Taiwan and cut off dialogue channels with the United States. It is expected that they will be able to respond with more training, including amphibious assault ship landing exercises.
Chinese military expert Song Zhongping bluffed, "If US provocations against Taiwan accumulate quantitatively, it could lead to a 'qualitative change' in which China solves the Taiwan issue at once."
The qualitative change here is interpreted as considering the armed invasion of Taiwan.