Given that Ankara supports most of them
The Turkish rapprochement with Damascus is the beginning of the end for the Syrian armed opposition
The Syrian-Turkish rapprochement is, in effect, the end of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.
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Abu Muhammad al-Julani was quick to denounce the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement.
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The Assad government is not ready to make any concessions.
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Turkish efforts to normalize diplomatic relations with the Syrian government have raised anxiety among armed Syrian opposition groups, and prompted many opponents of the Syrian government to fear the end of their cause, which began nearly a decade ago.
Chief among these is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an extremist armed organization that controls most of northwestern Syria.
Although there is no evidence that Turkey supports Hayat Tahrir al-Sham directly, Ankara has been the main supporter of other opposition groups during the 12-year civil war in Syria.
However, there are common interests between Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as they have coordinated on certain issues.
Turkey and Syria began to work to restore relations between them, and if the two sides succeed in finding common ground between them, it will be in the interest of the Syrian government, which is in effect considered the end of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham movement.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly stipulated the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria in order to begin reconciliation with Turkey.
Damascus insists that Ankara cancel its support for the armed groups opposing it.
survivability
Although some armed groups may remain viable despite the Syrian government's expansion in the north, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is not one of them, as it is classified as a terrorist organization by Ankara and Damascus due to its previous association with al-Qaeda.
In fact, Turkish efforts to reconcile Assad pose an existential threat to HTS.
The aim of the deployment of Turkish forces in Idlib in 2017 was to prevent the Damascus government from controlling the last stronghold of the opposition, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham helped the Turkish forces to control the place, and to obtain a safe environment in the region.
These days, HTS fears that its supporters will conclude that it supports the talks between Assad and Turkey, a perception that could threaten the unity of the movement and fuel public anger around it.
The movement's leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, was quick to denounce the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement.
Al-Jolani said in a videotaped statement that he would not reconcile with Assad, and promised that the fighting would continue until Damascus was "liberated".
Al-Julani also pledged not to hand over any areas to Damascus.
The movement is seen as the most powerful and cohesive group among the groups in northwestern Syria, and therefore it is expected that the opposition groups will participate in the fight against the Syrian government in order to better protect their areas of presence.
Escalation of attacks
To emphasize this point, HTS has escalated its attacks against the Syrian government in recent weeks, compared to the relative calm that prevailed over the past year, as HTS carried out about 11 operations against Syrian government forces in the past month, targeting pro-government cells operating in Idlib, But HTS continues a well-defined strategy, knowing that its survival depends on maintaining good relations with its northern neighbour.
For example, rather than engaging in direct confrontations with Syrian government forces, HTS has focused its operations on military defensive positions "behind enemy lines," likely because HTS wants to avoid an escalation of tensions with Turkey, which maintains the cease-fire that has been established. I brokered it with Russia in March 2020.
In addition, HTS has refrained from direct criticism of Turkey's foreign policy, maintaining a more conciliatory tone.
In a statement issued last December, the commission blamed the Syrian government for its unwillingness to address Turkey's security concerns, and urged Ankara to "preserve its values and moral gains in supporting the oppressed."
The commission expressed its "understanding of the domestic and international pressures that Turkey is facing," which includes Turkey's need to make progress in facilitating the return of Syrian refugees, and confronting the "Kurdish threat" before the Turkish elections next May.
In private councils, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham was more direct in expressing its views.
A local source told me that the commission held a meeting in December with Turkish officials, during which the group's leaders expressed concern about reconciliation with Syria, and reiterated their commitment to honoring agreements with Turkey.
It seems that the calculated responses of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are motivated by an assessment that the negotiations between Ankara and Damascus will most likely not lead to positive results, a view shared by many Syrian observers, who believe that the talks between Turkey and Syria will encounter many obstacles, not to mention that the government Syria is unwilling to make any concessions, and this may explain why HTS's response has so far been assuring its local audience of its commitment to the fight, without asking the Turkish government to cancel its talks with the Syrian government.
Of course, all results are unexpected, and talks between Damascus and Ankara may lead to an unexpected breakthrough.
In such a scenario, it is likely that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will be the first to use its diplomatic channels with Ankara, to reach a settlement that would allow it to preserve the maximum possible extent of its interests, which would include, for example, withdrawing from specific areas of Idlib in exchange for expansion in north of Aleppo.
And if it fails to reach an acceptable compromise with Turkey, it will undoubtedly resort to more assertive means to survive.
And no matter how far the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement develops, these days are trying times for the Syrian opposition groups in Idlib, whether those that want to fight or just longing to see an end to years of suffering.
Haid Haid is a Syrian writer and advisor to Chatham House on the Middle East and North Africa
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has escalated its attacks against the Syrian government in recent weeks, compared to the relative calm that prevailed over the past year.
President Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly stipulated the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria in order to begin reconciliation with Turkey. Damascus insists that Ankara cancel its support for the armed groups opposing it.
No matter how the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement develops, these days are trying times for the Syrian opposition groups in Idlib, whether they want to fight or just long to see an end to years of suffering.
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