Today, Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund predicted a slowdown in the growth of the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia during 2023 to 3.2%, 0.4 percentage points less than its estimates last October, attributing the reason for lowering its estimates to the economic repercussions of Russia's war on Ukraine.

On the other hand, the fund said in the "Global Economic Outlook" report that it had raised the growth forecast for the region's economies in 2024 to 3.5%.

The economies of the region recorded a growth of 5.4% last year, and 4.1% in 2021.

The fund's director of research, Pierre-Olivier Gorin Cha, said the revision for the region mainly reflects reductions in growth rates in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

For her part, Betia Kueva Brooks, Deputy Director of the Fund's Research Department, warned that the situation will be difficult for oil importers in the region due to the high volume of debt and the exacerbation of the inflation problem.

The IMF lowered its forecast for Saudi gross domestic product growth by 1.1 percentage points to 2.6% in 2023, and expected the kingdom to grow by 3.4% in 2024.

According to the report, the reduction in oil production, which is in line with the "OPEC Plus" agreement, will contribute to a decline in the growth of the Saudi economy.


performance of the global economy

On the other hand, the IMF said that the global economy is expected to cope better than initially feared due to the shocks of the ongoing war in Ukraine and high inflation rates.

The Fund does not expect the global economy to slip into recession, an option that economists did not rule out late last year.

The Fund added - in an update to the "Global Economic Outlook" database - that global growth expectations during 2023 were revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points, to reach 2.9%.

While the rate is weaker than the 3.4% recorded in 2022, Pierre-Olivier Gorin Sha said that growth of 2.9% in 2023 will be "less bleak" than it was in the forecast for last October.

The global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2024.

Eurozone and the United States

  • In the eurozone, the International Monetary Fund expects growth of 0.7% this year, 0.2 percentage point higher than previously forecast.

  • In Germany, the region's largest economy, GDP is projected to grow by just 0.1% in 2023, although this represents an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous estimate.

    Next year, the German economy is expected to grow by 1.4%, 0.1 percentage point lower than previously forecast.

  • In the United States, growth is expected to weaken from 2% in 2022 to 1.4% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.


British economic contraction

With regard to the British economy, the Monetary Fund said that it will contract by 0.6% this year instead of growing slightly by 0.3% as expected.

He added that it will perform worse than other advanced economies, as the high cost of living continues to affect families.

Fears are growing among British employers of bankruptcy this year, especially in small companies.

What about Japan, China and India?

  • Japan's economic growth is expected to improve to 1.8%, supported by continued monetary and fiscal policy support.

    However, growth is expected to moderate to 0.9% next year.

  • China's GDP is expected to increase to 5.2% in 2023, but it will decline next year to 4.5% before settling below 4% over the medium term.

  • In India, the economy is expected to grow to 6.1% before picking up to 6.8% in 2024.