Can the continuous "hawkization" bring security to Japan?

[Global Time Depth] Can the continuous "hawkization" bring security to Japan?

　　[Global Times Reporter Chen Zishuai Global Times Special Correspondent Ma Fang Global Times Special Correspondent in Japan permission] It is very necessary for Japan to have the ability to counterattack (the ability to attack enemy bases) - in the policy speech on January 23, the Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio once again emphasized the need to strengthen security.

Kishida was widely regarded as a "dove" before he came to power, and held a moderate stance on defense and China policies. However, after taking office for more than a year, Kishida's various policies are more than Japan's "hawkish" former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. No less.

In addition to Kishida, whether it is the ruling coalition or some opposition parties, their security policies and stance on China are also becoming more and more "hawkish".

What are the reasons for this phenomenon?

Can Japan bring real security to the country and the region through tough security measures?

"Abe" Kishida

　　Is Fumio Kishida a "dove" or a "hawk"?

On October 21, 2021, shortly after Kishida was elected prime minister of Japan, Togo Kazuhiko, the former director of the Treaty Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan and a visiting professor at Shizuoka University, posted an article on the East Asia Forum website of the Australian National University, giving 4 indicators to measure .

These indicators include whether Kishida promotes Japan's ability to attack enemy bases, its policies toward China, Russia and South Korea.

　　Facts have proved that after taking office for more than a year, the Kishida government has "hawkized" in the above four indicators.

In December 2022, the Japanese government passed the new version of the "National Security Strategy", "National Defense Strategy" and "Defense Force Preparation Plan" three security policy documents, stating that Japan will be committed to having counterattack capabilities (attack capabilities against enemy bases), and It is planned to increase Japan's total defense expenditure to 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP), or 43 trillion yen (about 2.2 trillion yuan) within five fiscal years.

This is an earth-shaking change for Japan, which has been pursuing pacifism since World War II.

Some analysts said that the release of these three documents means that Japan has completely abandoned the principle of "exclusive defense" and completely deviated from the peaceful concept of the Japanese Constitution.

　　In terms of China policy, Japan's new version of the "National Security Strategy" is consistent with the wording of the United States, and China is called Japan's "biggest strategic challenge ever".

Togo Kazuhiko reminded that the Taiwan issue is a sensitive issue, and finding a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue is of paramount importance to Japan.

However, at the "2+2" meeting of the Japanese and US foreign ministers and defense ministers in mid-January this year, representatives of the two sides agreed to adjust the US military garrison in Okinawa, Japan, to respond when the Chinese mainland "takes action" against Taiwan.

　　Togo Kazuhiko previously believed that the policy towards Russia should be where Kishida and Abe have the most consensus.

During his tenure in office, Abe made "tremendous efforts" to strengthen relations with Russia.

For a "dovish" prime minister, improving relations with Russia would be a worthy achievement.

However, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Kishida government ended Tokyo's attitude towards Moscow for more than a decade and imposed severe sanctions on Russia.

On January 27, 2023, the Kishida government announced that it would impose additional economic sanctions on Russia and freeze the assets of 36 Russian military officers and 36 people and 3 groups related to pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.

Japan will also ban the export of any materials that may be used to enhance Russia's military capabilities to 49 Russian institutions from February 3.

　　On South Korea policy, Togo Kazuhiko said that if Kishida wants to become a successful "dove" prime minister, he must find a way to build trust with South Korea and find the intersection of the national interests of the two countries.

However, after Kishida came to power, he did not make any concessions on issues such as the forced labor case, and his attitude remained tough.

　　Before becoming the prime minister of Japan, Kishida had always been considered a dovish faction, and the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party "Hongchihui" to which he belonged was traditionally also a dovish faction, advocating "light weapons and heavy economy".

Kishida also served as Japan's foreign minister for nearly five years, during which he was committed to promoting the development of Japan-China relations.

Now, the Kishida government has taken a tough stance on security and China.

　　Lian Degui, director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times that Kishida was a "betrayed" "dove".

When he first came to power, the approval rate was above 60%, and there were obvious signs of "leaving Abe".

However, the assassination of Abe involved the issue of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Unification Church, which caused Kishida's support rate to decline all the way, and he had to seek support from within the party.

At the same time, in order to gain the support of the United States and maintain the Japan-US alliance, Kishida also had to "Abe" on security issues and attitudes towards China.

The main opposition party is also increasingly hardline and conservative

　　Some scholars believe that, including Kishida, the "doves" within the Liberal Democratic Party have basically disappeared.

Zhuo Nansheng, an honorary professor at Ryukoku University in Japan, once published an article stating that the Liberal Democratic Party "Chinghekai" to which Abe belongs is known for its hawkish stance, and former Foreign Minister Taro Kono, who is regarded as an "anti-Abe alliance" in the 2021 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are no less gentle than Fumio Kishida.

According to a report by Radio France Internationale, when Kishida ran for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2021, he publicly stated that if elected, he would take "counter-countering China" as his top priority.

Zhuo Nansheng said that in the Liberal Democratic Party, whether they are "doves" or "hawks", whether they are young or experienced, most people want to complete the constitutional amendment as soon as possible, and their attitude towards China is not friendly.

　　In addition to the Liberal Democratic Party, all major political parties in Japan are becoming more and more "hawkish" on security issues.

According to the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" a few days ago, Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, expressed the need to increase defense spending.

Another opposition party, the National Democratic Party of Japan, also supports increasing the defense budget and obtaining counterattack capabilities (the ability to attack enemy bases).

The Japan Restoration Society, the third-largest party in the House of Representatives and the fourth-largest party in the Senate, has insisted on increasing defense spending to 2 percent of GDP, calling it an international obligation.

Sota Kato, a research fellow at the Tokyo Foundation Policy Research Institute, a Japanese think tank, and a former official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, said: "Japan's ruling coalition and opposition parties basically agree to increase defense spending, which is very different from the relevant political debates we saw after World War II. He said that for decades, the biggest ideological difference between the left and the right in Japan has been the different positions on the constitution and national defense.

In 1960, millions took to the streets to oppose a new security treaty with the United States.

　　After the war, Japan’s opposition parties made positive contributions to the development of Japan-China relations. However, the opposition parties including the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Communist Party of Japan, and the former opposition party Komeito (now the coalition ruling party) have not done much to China in recent years. Cognition is close to that of the Liberal Democratic Party.

　　The Japanese Communist Party has previously issued a statement criticizing China's human rights issues and criticizing China's "unilateral attempts to change the status quo" in the South China Sea.

In February 2022, the National Democratic Party of Japan issued a statement on the so-called "human rights issue in Xinjiang" and demanded that the Chinese government "immediately stop human rights violations."

In August 2022, Kenta Izumi, the leader of the Japanese Constitutional Democratic Party, criticized the People's Liberation Army for holding a joint military exercise in the waters surrounding Taiwan, saying that the "falling of Chinese ballistic missiles into Japan's exclusive economic zone" is a "major issue" related to Japan's security and national safety, and it is a "major issue" to China's The behavior expresses "strong protest".

The Japan Restoration Council issued a statement in 2020, making irresponsible remarks on Hong Kong affairs, calling on the Japanese government to align with European and American countries, and urging the Chinese government to "maintain a free and prosperous Hong Kong."

In addition, the Komeito Party, which once played an important role in the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, failed to fully withstand the pressure of the Liberal Democratic Party as a coalition ruling party. At the end of December last year, it approved in three documents including the National Security Strategy China is positioned as "the greatest strategic challenge ever".

3 reasons why politics is leaning to the right

　　How has Japan's political stance become increasingly hawkish and conservative?

Zhuo Nansheng said that many people attribute the obvious right-wing deviation in Japanese politics to three reasons, including politicians catering to conservative voters, pressure from the United States, and "the rise of China."

He said that before the 1990s, Japanese people had great differences on the direction of national development.

The general vibe in Japan is now more conservative than it was then.

However, Zhuo Nansheng believes that it is not because Japanese voters have become conservative that politicians cater to voters through conservatism, but because of changes in the Japanese political arena. Japan's domestic conservatism continues to intensify.

In addition, the Japanese authorities have contributed to the conservatism of Japanese voters through a series of actions, including revising textbooks, visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, and promoting pre-war thinking and narrow nationalism through the media.

　　Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Japanese Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter that since the end of the Cold War, the Japanese government has frequently hyped up and created incidents on issues such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, exaggerating the so-called "China Threat Theory", and fueled by the Japanese media. , And then lead the Japanese people to have a wrong understanding that "Japan is threatened by China's rise" and an unfriendly attitude towards China.

At the same time, the Japanese government stated that the increase in defense expenses is to protect its citizens.

The Japanese people who were "bewitched" by this remark in turn supported the Liberal Democratic Party.

Such an interactive relationship eventually made the "general conservatism" of Japanese politics develop into the "general conservatism" of Japanese society. The Japanese government, media and public all tend to support tough defense and China policies.

A survey conducted by Japanese media in December 2022 showed that 55% of respondents supported the government's strengthening of defense capabilities, while only 36% opposed it.

　　According to Zhuo Nansheng's analysis, the reason for Japan's obvious right-wing political arena also includes pressure from the United States.

Lian Degui told the "Global Times" reporter that the United States has felt that it is unable to contain China's development alone, so it requires Japan to increase military spending and strengthen its armed forces.

In addition, the Japanese have gradually lost confidence in the Japan-US alliance, believing that the US is shrinking its strategy. Once Japan is in danger, Washington may be unreliable, so Japan should increase its own defense forces.

　　Chen Yang, a visiting researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies of Liaoning University, believes that the Japanese government and the ruling party have repeatedly exaggerated the so-called "China's threat" and "Taiwan has something to do" have led to significant changes in public opinion in Japanese society, and the Japanese people increasingly regard China as a "threat."

In this context, even if the Japanese opposition party wants to improve Sino-Japanese relations, it will be difficult to do anything. Therefore, in order to conform to public opinion, especially to ensure that it wins seats in the next general election, the opposition party has to maintain an agreement with the ruling party on China issues. Basically the same.

At the same time, Japan's opposition party has become weaker and weaker, and it is difficult to influence the ruling party's attitude towards China as it did before the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan.

The latest poll released on the website of the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) in January showed that the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party was 38.9%, while the support rate of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, was only 5.7%. Obvious stress.

will pose a major threat to East Asian countries

　　On December 12, 2022, the Japanese Kanji Ability Testing Association announced that the word "war" was selected as the Japanese Kanji of the Year.

On the same day, Kiyomizu Mori, the abbot of Kiyomizu Temple in Kyoto, wrote the word "war" on a piece of paper 1.5 meters high and 1.3 meters wide, and said that he hoped that the war would end in 2023 and that people could live a peaceful life.

However, four days later, the Japanese government passed three security policy documents, including the new version of the "National Security Strategy", to promote Japan's acquisition of counterattack capabilities (attack capabilities against enemy bases).

On January 23, 2023, Kishida delivered a policy speech, again emphasizing the need to fundamentally enhance Japan's defense capabilities.

On January 30, he stated that he would seek the understanding of the House of Representatives to increase defense costs through tax increases.

　　Will returning to the route of a major military power bring security to Japan?

The former vice president of Yamaguchi University in Japan, Yu Huahou, said that the country's new version of the three security documents is a "new militarism" that will pose a major threat to East Asian countries.

Japan's anti-war peace organization "Peace Concept Suggestion Conference" stated that the three documents will make Japan once again a country capable of waging war, thereby inciting an arms race in East Asia, which is extremely dangerous.

Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun" believes that acquiring the ability to counterattack (the ability to attack enemy bases) cannot protect Japan.

Japan should communicate with neighboring countries, commit to arms control, and ease regional tensions through diplomacy.

Some Japanese netizens said that if Japan continues to expand its military power to become a military power, regional tensions will intensify, and the situation may eventually get out of control.

　　Japan has also continuously strengthened its security cooperation with the United States.

According to the "Wall Street Journal", according to a series of measures recently announced by the United States and Japan, the United States will protect Japanese satellites, equip Japan with long-range missiles, and upgrade the US Marine Corps stationed in Japan.

For the United States to encourage Japan to increase its armed forces, Lian Degui said that in the long run, this is a dangerous game that may lead Japan to get rid of the shackles of the United States.

Once the United States finds it difficult to control Japan, an "equilateral triangle relationship" between China, the United States and Japan will be formed. At that time, whether the United States can successfully use Japan to contain China will no longer be up to the United States to decide.

However, Lu Yaodong believes that the Japan-US alliance restricted by the "Japan-US Security Treaty" is an unequal and unbalanced alliance. As long as this treaty exists, the United States can control and restrain Japan.

The reason why the United States is currently "indulging" Japan in developing its military power and purchasing offensive weapons is because the United States wants to use Japan's attempt to become a political and military power to safeguard its own interests in East Asia.

This is conducive to maintaining the common interests of the Japan-US alliance, but it will bring damage to the peace and stability of East Asia.

　　(Source: Global Times)