WASHINGTON

- A state of great confusion among analysts and experts in military and Chinese affairs was left behind by the leaking of an official memo from the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) containing warnings of a US military commander about the high risks of a devastating war between his country and China in 2025 over the island of Taiwan.

The warnings are attributed to General Michael Minihan, who directed his forces to the necessity of accelerating their preparations for a possible military confrontation, citing his expectations of the aspirations of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The general says that the Americans may not notice this until it is too late.

China responded decisively to this news, warning that the Taiwan file is a "red line" in Sino-US relations, and Washington should not try to cross it.

Al-Jazeera Net polled the opinions of a number of US military experts and experts on Chinese affairs to determine the seriousness of this memorandum and the eligibility of this military commander, and does his position and the scope of his powers allow an assessment of this seriousness?

General Michael Minihan asked his forces to prepare a vision to prepare to fight China and send it at the end of February (American press)

A general with broad powers

General Minihan is the commander of the US Air Traffic Command, which includes about 50,000 military personnel and about 500 combat aircraft, and is responsible for transporting personnel and equipment by air to any place in the world they need, to be able to engage in combat operations quickly and in locations far from the land. American.

The signed memorandum was addressed to all of the Air Mobility Command's Wing Commanders and other Air Force Operations Commanders.

In his memo, Minihan ordered all units of the Air Wing to prepare their vision of the major efforts to prepare for the fight against China, and to send it to him by February 28.

David De Roche, a former Pentagon official and lecturer at the National Defense College in Washington, explains to Al Jazeera Net that Minihan's position allows him to command air traffic, which is the air component of the US Military Transport Command.

And, "Historically, most of the senior leaders of the Air Force came from the category of bomber and fighter pilots and not from the transportation community, and as such, the transportation commander is usually considered a logistical rather than an operational position."

This general spent all of his professional history in the Pacific Ocean, and recently served as deputy commander of the US Command in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, so he may be more aware of the threat of China than anyone else and "from here he can play a direct role in leading US forces in any conflict with China." According to De Roche.

According to the former Pentagon official, "The general's words will be seen as more than a traditional memorandum as it explains why he feels anxious, yet politically he is a 4-star general, and many around the world will take his opinion as the Pentagon's point of view, while it seems that His memorandum was nothing but an internal document between his forces."


An internal but serious note

Minihan's comments are the most obvious prediction from a senior military commander, and a rare instance of an official of this level clearly indicating that the United States will respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and come one week before Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is scheduled to visit China.

While Sun Yun, an expert on Chinese-American relations at the "Stimson" Center in Washington, saw that this memorandum came after the serious efforts made by the Joe Biden administration to dispel expectations of an imminent war with China, including his clear statement at the Bali summit last November.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, expert Yoon said, "General Minihan's comments became the focus of attention because they re-asked the same question and suspicion, which made people wonder if new evidence had appeared to support this argument, and taking into account that the army's mission is to prepare to fight a war and win." battle."

In turn, Matthew Whalen, CEO of the American Security Project - a think tank focused on military affairs - considered that "the general's task is to prepare for war, but in a country where the civilian leadership controls the professional army, he only provides an opinion, and it is somewhat unusual at the present time." Discuss the possibility of conflict years before it happens.

While Whalen indicated the difficulty of predicting the future, he told Al-Jazeera Net that no country would benefit from a war on Taiwan, but "this does not mean that China sees the matter in this way, as there are different calculations for Beijing even if the economic and human costs are huge in front of any potential gains." .

Whalen said he hoped diplomacy would prevail, "China would restrain its ambition, and the United States would support its allies in Taiwan while carefully balancing its actions between deterrence and unintended provocation."

The American expert acknowledged that China is "undoubtedly" watching the reaction to the war in Ukraine closely, and said that it is "watching not only how the United States and its allies support Ukrainian needs, but how this war reveals serious deficiencies in ammunition stocks and the supply chain."

"I hope China does not see Ukraine's shortcomings and interest as an opportunity to attack Taiwan, and the United States should remain vigilant and prepared, and perhaps the generals' words will help ensure that," he added.

Maneuvers in the vicinity of Taiwan, where estimates fluctuate about the possible date of the attack on the island and the outbreak of a Sino-American war (Reuters)

2025 or 2027?

For his part, the military commander, De Roche, rejects General Minihan's assessment of the outbreak of war in 2025, and says, "I do not agree with his assessment that there will be a war by 2025, but I think that China is clearly preparing and training to invade Taiwan, and what most experts say is that Beijing will be ready by the year 2027 to invade.

In his opinion, the best way to prevent a Chinese attack on Taiwan is to prove that the United States and other partners have the ability to quickly enhance the security of Taipei, and the rest of the other partners in the region, which, as De Roche says, "what General Minihan calls for in his memorandum, is that he calls for the existence of a form of strong deterrence.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, defense affairs expert Michael Beck said, "I don't know if General Minihan has any special information about China's intentions. This may just be an inspiring message to make his soldiers train more seriously."

"Yes, the Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a possibility, but it has existed for nearly 75 years and has not happened, and the Chinese military force is increasing, but Beijing has its own complex calculations when calculating the possibility of invading Taiwan," the expert said.