Occupied Jerusalem
- The tone of threat and intimidation is escalating between Israel and Iran as the negotiations in Vienna falter and the signing of a new nuclear agreement is postponed indefinitely. It seems as if the drums of war are beating through the media in Tel Aviv and Tehran, amid escalation between the two sides on several arenas in the region.
The adoption by the IAEA Council, consisting of 35 countries, of a resolution criticizing Tehran for not providing an explanation for the presence of traces of uranium in 3 undisclosed sites, and its adoption of the Israeli narrative alleging the acceleration of the Iranian nuclear program, constituted an important stage in the scenes of the conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran. Some features of the conflict came out to the public amid the continuing regional and international debate over the Iranian nuclear issue.
In light of the controversy and international pressure exerted on Tehran to return to the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015, and with Israel besieging Iran through the "Abrahamian" normalization agreements with Gulf countries, the atmosphere of multilateral escalation and arenas between Tel Aviv and Tehran is raging.
Under the pretext of Iranian missile threats, the Israeli warplanes bombed, on Friday, Damascus International Airport, and this coincided with the escalation of the war of words also after the Israeli media revealed the deployment of an Israeli radar system in the Gulf, leading to the threats made by the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, Aviv Kochavi, against the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the talk On thwarting an Iranian attempt to attack Israeli targets in Turkey, and the previous assassinations of scholars in Tehran and officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in recent years.
Is Israel living in a real atmosphere of war with Iran?
The military maneuvers conducted by the Israeli army, during this June, reflect the state of war and the existential threat that Tel Aviv is trying to promote. real.
During the training, Israeli aircraft attacked many targets, within short periods of time and at a range of 1,100 km, using F-15 and F-35 aircraft. The Israeli forces also trained to rescue pilots who jumped from planes in areas far from the Israeli borders.
The Israeli Navy conducted extensive training of missile-carrying warships and submarines in the Red Sea, with the aim of "achieving naval supremacy in the Red Sea, expanding the area of operations of the naval military arm."
In Cyprus, the Israeli army conducted an exercise entitled "Chariots of Fire" in the context of its preparation for the possibility of a multi-front war, as dozens of Israeli warplanes participated in a training simulating an attack in Iran.
According to a report published by the Walla website, the Israeli Arms Development Authority, Rafael, developed a one-ton bomb that the Adir plane could carry without compromising its ability to evade anti-missiles, and developed the F-35 Adir aircraft. It enables it to fly over Iran, back and forth, without refueling.
What are the implications of maneuvers and scenarios of escalation and war with Iran?
Israeli analysts believe that the army maneuvers reflect fear of a war scenario with Iran on the one hand, as well as the army's lack of readiness to carry out military attacks on Iranian targets and sites, and that Tel Aviv cannot launch a war on Iranian nuclear facilities without partnership and support from the United States of America.
Despite this, Israeli analysts attach great importance to increasing military activity against Iran, but warn that this could lead to a war that could break out on several fronts, with heavy losses for the Israeli home front.
According to Israeli claims, Iran continues to move systematically until it becomes a "nuclear threshold state" that possesses the capabilities and technology to produce nuclear weapons without actually producing them.
Therefore, it is possible, according to Tamir Hayman, the former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Division (AMAN) who is the director of the Center for National Security Research at Tel Aviv University, that “we are witnessing a significant increase in interference through military operations, covert or overt. Which indicates an integrated campaign Multidimensional: assassinations, frustrations and electronic warfare, with the aim of disrupting the Iranian nuclear program with all its components.
Hayman believes that this is not a solid solution and will not be feasible for a long time, even if the nuclear program is disrupted and disrupted, noting that this campaign alone will not prevent Iran from reaching the state of a nuclear threshold state, insinuating that there are no strategic alternatives before Israel but the option. Military to completely destroy the Iranian nuclear project.
Does it fall within the context of Israeli internal bidding?
The first year of the current government headed by Naftali Bennett proves, once again, that when it comes to security policy, there is no big difference between the different governments, and therefore the escalation and tone of intimidation and threats cannot be separated from the Israeli political reality and the internal crises that afflict the Bennett government and threaten its disintegration.
There is no significant difference between the policies of Bennett's government and those of his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, with regard to the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and even Iran, as there is no clear and specific security strategy.
But the most prominent difference of this government, unlike its predecessor - according to the military analyst of the Israeli Channel 13 Alon Ben David - is that the Bennett government has a long hand in the White House, and that it enjoys sympathy and support from the administration of US President Joe Biden, which increases Israel's freedom to act towards Iran. The Iranians are well aware of the difference, whether in Iran or Syria.
Accordingly, the Bennett government - like the Netanyahu government - will not be in a hurry to implement the military option against Iran, due to the lack of sufficient capabilities, and only in the unlikely event that Tehran tries to accelerate the production of a nuclear bomb, Israel will be forced to implement a broad military option. range against Iranian nuclear facilities.
A large-scale military attack on Iran.. What is the truth and repercussions of such a scenario?
Israel is racing against time to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state, through the operations and attacks attributed to it, which target Iranian nuclear facilities and the scientists who oversee the nuclear project.
Although it is unlikely that a direct military strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities would be directed, similar to the bombing of the Iraqi reactor in 1981 or the bombing of the Syrian reactor in 2007, due to fears of the repercussions of such a strike and the outbreak of a multi-front war, Tel Aviv suffices with directing specific strikes without leading This would ignite an all-out war with Iran and its allies in the region, especially Hezbollah.
However, according to Israeli estimates and expected scenarios, an Israeli military attack in Iran could escalate into a large-scale battle with Hezbollah, and it could also ignite the northern front with Syria as well as the front with the Gaza Strip, which would lead to a long-term regional war.
How ready is the Israeli army for a war on several fronts?
Israeli security estimates indicate that in the event of any Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities in Iran, even if it was independent, Tehran would then see itself under attack from the United States and the West, and therefore there are some Israeli army reserve officers who believe that it is advisable to take such a step. The measure and implementation of any Israeli military attack on Iran with broad "international legitimacy" and American support.
Security estimates in Tel Aviv suggest that the effectiveness of an Israeli attack on the nuclear program will be very high, but the potential development of a war on 3 fronts is an issue that requires great preparation and strong support, which requires Israel to be ready for it internally and externally.
What about the Israeli home front if it was bombed by Hezbollah?
The position estimates of national security research centers and military analysts agree on the fragility of the Israeli home front and the army’s insufficient readiness for a multi-front war, where hundreds of casualties will be incurred daily, and the home front will be bombarded with thousands of missiles daily by Hezbollah or even from Iran, which will happen. Mass destruction in the heart of Israeli cities, strategic and vital sites, installations, and infrastructure projects.
In an effort to deter Hezbollah, the Israeli army chief of staff threatened that thousands of targets in Lebanon and Syria would be destroyed during the next war.
But Kochavi acknowledged the difficulties, saying, "We have to talk honestly about the difficulty on the Israeli home front during a future war with Hezbollah, as many missiles will fall in Israel and damage and loss of property and lives will be caused."
The Israeli army estimates indicated that 80 sites in the depth of the home front will be subject to total destruction, as a result of being targeted by about 1,500 missiles per day, by Hezbollah.
So what might spark the war or lead to its retreat?
Israel has recently been working to prevent the removal of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard from the US blacklist of "terrorist" organizations.
According to Israeli estimates, it seems that the US administration does not intend to do so, and it is also pushing for the continuation of investigations conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding Iran's alleged violations in the field of developing a military nuclear project, and this may fuel the possibilities of war.
And with the diminishing chances of signing a new nuclear agreement with Iran, the international pressure exerted on Tehran may increase, and as a result, the Iranians will increase pressure on the entire region, which would strengthen Israel's regional alliance with countries in the Gulf.
In light of this alliance, it is expected that military coordination and joint maneuvers will increase. An example of this can be seen in the escort provided by Israeli fighter planes to American B-52 bombers in Israeli airspace on their way to the Gulf, and the announcement of the deployment of an Israeli radar system. In Bahrain and the Emirates, which may lead to a temporary delay in the beating of the drums of war.