If China's growth rate drops by 1 percentage point this year, it is predicted that Korea's growth rate may also drop by more than 0.2 percentage point.



According to the report titled “World Economic Situation and Prospects in 2023” released today (29th) by organizations affiliated with the United Nations, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, based on a global economic forecast model, said that if China’s growth rate declines by 1 percentage point, the growth rate of East Asian and Southeast Asian countries will also drop by 0.06. It was estimated to fall by ∼0.41 percentage points.



South Korea is expected to experience a growth rate decline in the mid-0.2 percentage point range, with the eighth largest decline among the 14 countries mentioned in the report.



Affected countries in the -0.4% point range are Singapore and Vietnam, -0.3% point in Cambodia, Hong Kong and Brunei, -0.2% point in Taiwan, Mongolia and Korea, and -0.1% point in Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. estimated, etc.



According to the report, China is expected to grow by 4.8% this year, exceeding last year's growth rate of 3.0%, thanks to the lifting of 'Zero Corona' and the real estate stimulus package.



The forecast for Korea's growth rate this year is 2.0%, and developing countries in East Asia and Southeast Asia, excluding Japan, are estimated to grow 4.4% as a whole.



Considering uncertainties in China and the world economy, conditions for economic recovery in the region are still weak, and if China's growth rate falls short of expectations, the region's overall growth rate may be lower than expected, the report said.



On the other hand, if China's real estate economy stabilizes, countries that export construction raw materials to China will benefit, and if Chinese overseas tourism resumes, it will be a boon to countries with a large portion of the tourism industry.



In the case of Korea, exports to China decreased by 4.4% last year, while imports increased by 11.5%, showing a deteriorating trade balance with China.



In an interview with Reuters last November, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong said, "In fact, if China eases its zero-corona policy and reopens its borders and economy, it will be a huge stimulus for us."