The prolongation of the conflict in Ukraine will bring the United States more disadvantages than advantages.
This opinion was expressed by the authors of the report prepared by the American research center RAND Corporation.
Among the key costs associated with the long-term scenario, experts identified the risk of using nuclear weapons and starting a war between NATO and Russia.
In addition, further support for Kyiv will require an infusion of more and more Western resources, American analysts believe.
Against this background, the world will continue to rise in prices for energy and food products, as well as slow down the development of the global economy, which will also affect the United States.
In addition, because of Ukraine, Washington will not be able to concentrate on other priorities of its foreign policy.
These factors, according to RAND, are more significant for Washington than the possible advantages of prolonging the conflict.
The latter include the weakening of Russia, a possible increase in Kyiv's control over the territories and a decrease in the energy dependence of the countries supporting Ukraine on the Russian Federation.
“In short, the consequences of prolonged conflict, from the continued presence of heightened risks of escalation to economic damage, far outweigh the possible benefits,” the authors of the report note.
At the same time, RAND believes that now neither Moscow nor Kyiv can achieve an absolute victory on the battlefield.
More likely options for ending the confrontation in the think tank are considered a truce, negotiations on a political settlement, or something in between.
However, RAND experts state that “despite the months of hostilities, it seems that both Russia and Ukraine are optimistic about the further course of the conflict” and therefore are not ready for a peaceful settlement.
Office of the RAND Corporation
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© Ted Soqui
In particular, Ukraine, according to the experts of the research center, expects to succeed on the battlefield because of the conviction that Western aid will "infinitely grow in qualitative and quantitative terms."
Russia is counting on the fact that the US and the EU will not be able to continue to support the Kyiv regime in the future due to the increasing costs of such a policy.
In addition, the mutual distrust of the parties to the conflict causes the authors of the document to fear that a possible peace in the future will not last long.
This factor also affects the reluctance of the participants in the confrontation to negotiate, analysts say.
Advice to the White House
To bring the start of a peace settlement closer, RAND suggests that Washington take a number of steps.
Thus, the White House, according to the authors of the report, could "make Ukraine's commitment to negotiations a condition for further military assistance."
In parallel with this, experts say, the United States should outline clear plans for further arms supplies to Ukraine in order to send a signal to Russia.
In addition, the United States and its allies "could consider setting out a long-term commitment to Ukraine's security that they are willing to make if Kyiv finds common ground with Moscow," the document says.
Such a move would eliminate Ukraine's concerns about its own security in the future, analysts believe.
American howitzer M777 in Ukraine
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© Libkos
In addition, the United States could contribute to the adoption of a neutral status by Ukraine.
“Within the framework of the Istanbul Communiqué, Russia would receive an international legal obligation from the United States and a number of NATO countries regarding the neutral status of Ukraine in addition to its own obligation on this matter ... Such a promise, from Russia’s point of view, could level the problems of reliability of obligations ", the authors of the report believe.
The United States should also identify ways to partially lift sanctions on the Russian Federation, RAND believes.
“Perhaps Russia's pessimism about a peaceful settlement is partly based on the belief that international sanctions will remain in place even if it agrees to end the conflict in Ukraine.
Therefore, one of the steps that could make negotiations more likely would be to present a path towards a partial lifting of sanctions,” the document says.
All these steps could hasten the start of the peace process, according to American experts.
“Developing these tools now and discussing them with Ukraine and US allies could help bring closer the eventual start of a process that can bring this conflict to a negotiated conclusion within a time frame that is in US interests.
The alternative to this is a protracted conflict fraught with serious challenges for the United States, Ukraine and the rest of the world, ”the report says.
At the same time, the think tank acknowledges that it will not be easy for Washington to make such decisions.
In particular, on the issue of anti-Russian sanctions, the White House may face political opposition within the United States itself.
In addition, the United States would have to enlist the support of its allies, whom Washington had previously persuaded to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation.
"Compromise is not worth waiting for"
According to Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, the steps proposed by RAND analysts are nothing more than "suggestions for reflection."
“There is no multi-scenarios in the RAND proposals, they proceed from the fact that the scenario as a whole will be favorable for Washington.
And the United States will be able to lead the process of stopping hostilities in one way or another, ”the expert explained in a commentary to RT.
In addition, he noted that American analysts touch upon the issue of guarantees for Russia, but at the same time they assume that it is Washington that will decide what kind of guarantees these will be.
"They do not proceed from the fact that Russia's interests will be respected in the future," the analyst added.
According to experts, some RAND proposals could really hasten the end of the conflict.
For example, an important step would be the real consolidation of a neutral status for Kyiv.
Back in December 2021, Moscow, in a draft document on security guarantees, offered the West to abandon the expansion of NATO, including the acceptance of Ukraine into the alliance, and from conducting any military activity on the territory of the states of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during a meeting at the Ramstein base, where military assistance to Ukraine was discussed
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At the same time, analysts draw attention to a number of important distortions in the report.
For example, RAND writes that both sides allegedly do not want to start a dialogue.
However, the Russian leadership has repeatedly declared its readiness to negotiate with Ukraine.
For example, in June 2022, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with the Radio and Television of the Republika Srpska television and radio company, recalled that in the spring Moscow and Kyiv agreed on the parameters of the settlement, but at the last moment Ukraine, under pressure from the West, refused further negotiations.
Later, the Kyiv regime even introduced a legislative ban on negotiations with the leadership of the Russian Federation.
Political scientists also draw attention to the fact that the logic of the report is largely based on the assumption that the outcome of the conflict depends mainly on Western assistance to Kyiv.
According to analysts, the supply of foreign equipment does have an impact on the combat situation, but the Russian Federation is able to achieve the goals of the special operation, regardless of the support of Ukraine from the United States and NATO.
“It should also be taken into account that this assistance is very limited.
This is due to financial reasons and the banal lack of modern types of weapons in Western countries, ”Vladimir Batyuk, head of the Center for Military-Political Studies at the Institute for the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in a conversation with RT.
In turn, Konstantin Blokhin, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, drew attention to another important drawback of the RAND report: the document does not say a word about the conditions under which peace is supposed to be achieved.
“On the one hand, deconfliction is good, but under what conditions will a truce be concluded?
This is the key question.
Many problems arise here, for example, what will be the position of Ukraine and the United States on Crimea and Donbass.
Obviously, there is no need to wait for compromises here, ”said the interlocutor of RT.
He also stressed that the conflict resolution is compounded by the lack of trust between the West and Russia.
According to the expert, there are no guarantees that Washington and Kyiv will comply with the signed agreements.
“Negotiations can go on for an arbitrarily long time, they can be dragged out for weeks or months, everyone understands this.
It is possible to sign an agreement with Russia, and at the same time pump Ukraine into arms and violate its obligations.
It will turn out the same as with the Minsk agreements, ”Blokhin stated.
In turn, American political scientist Malek Dudakov believes that the US authorities at this stage are unlikely to heed the proposals of RAND specialists.
“The reports of this organization are read both in the White House and in the Pentagon.
However, there are no guarantees that they will listen to these reports.
The document was rather created to prepare the opinion of the political class, and this is not a quick process, ”the expert said in a comment to RT.
He also believes that in the foreseeable future, changes in Washington's policy in the Ukrainian direction should not be expected.
“At the moment, the Joe Biden administration has no particular desire for peace talks on the Ukrainian issue.
No one in the West plans to change his position.
Therefore, they will continue to pump weapons into Kyiv,” the analyst concluded.