American expert: Iran and Israel are already at war and are likely to become more violent

Washington

- An American expert attributes the absence of a direct armed conflict between Israel and Iran so far, due to the geographical distance and the lack of borders between the two parties, while the relations between the two countries are witnessing a continuous escalation, aggravated by the stalemate and the suspension of the Vienna negotiations, with Iran continuing to advance its nuclear program as well. The latest reports of the International Atomic Energy Organization.

In light of this, "David De Roche" - a former military commander and current assistant professor at the Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University of the US Pentagon - spoke to Al-Jazeera Net about the possibility of military operations between Israel and Iran.

During his 30-year career at the Department of Defense, de Roche served on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the US Special Operations Command, as well as in special operations and conventional forces deployed in the Middle East, Europe and Afghanistan.

De Roche held several positions in the Office of the US Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs, including Director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Office, Director of Communications between the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security, and Director of NATO Operations.

Dialogue text:

David De Roche, Professor of Security Studies at the National Defense University and former US military official (communication sites)

There has been an ongoing low-level proxy war between Iran and Israel for decades.

Iran usually attacks easy Jewish (and not necessarily Israeli) targets, such as the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, while Israel attacks targets and military leaders inside Iran.

With the expansion of the war in Syria, Israel targeted the Iranian military presence in Syria, while Iran sought to empower various proxies such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, not only by providing weapons, especially missiles, but also by providing them with the means to manufacture such weapons, and this was more evident with Drones.

Most recently, Israel attacked an Iranian drone facility inside Iran, prompting Iran to attack a facility in Iraqi Kurdistan, which it described as an Israeli spy center.

Recently, we are witnessing more attacks on senior military officers and security officials in Iran, as well as major attacks on targets in Syria, such as Damascus International Airport.

It seems that Iran feels that it has to respond out of security considerations as well as out of preserving its image.

In view of the increasing role of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in various Iranian sectors, and with the increasing corruption in Iran linked to the expansion of the influence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the major security failures call into question the legitimacy of the Iranian regime.

Therefore, the current escalation is likely to continue and become more violent.

They are already at war.

Being a proxy war since the outbreak of the Iranian revolution, it is unlikely that Iran and Israel will reach a war the way Russia is waging its offensive in Ukraine, for example.

Distance and geography preclude a long-term conflict over territory.

However, it is more likely that Israel will carry out a large-scale air attack against Iran and its proxies and forces in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.

On the other hand, the Iranian effort will focus on attacks against commercial ships in the Gulf, launching long-range missiles against Israel from Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, and launching attacks against countries Iran defines as enemies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

And Iran will fight Israel, as it has done for decades, to the last Arab.

This is not a new development. For decades, Iran has tested missile attacks simulating Israeli targets and American warships.

On the other hand, Israel repeatedly shows that it has the ability to conduct military and intelligence operations remotely, even in downtown Tehran.

The implications of these maneuvers now are to highlight Israel's ability to act as a deterrent to further Iranian military action.

Emirati and Israeli officials during a meeting in Tel Aviv (Emirati press)

Iran considers itself the leader of the "axis of resistance" against a system led by the United States and Israel that targets Iranian interests in the region.

The other members of the Axis of Resistance are the Lebanese Hezbollah, Syria and forces in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.

This axis opposes any country hosting American forces or recognizing Israel.

Thus, Iran views the "Abrahamic Accords" between Bahrain, the UAE and Israel as a direct challenge to the "axis of resistance" and a military threat to it.

Israel does not welcome a multi-front war, but it has realized that it may have to fight it, and so it has prepared for operations on multiple fronts.

In my view, Israel feels it can count on its relations with Russia as well as on its traditional ability to strike to keep Syria marginalized during the conflict.

Israel feels that it can contain the Gaza Strip by strengthening security operations if the need arises.

It also prepared international public opinion to launch aggressive strikes inside Lebanon by announcing Hezbollah's missile manufacturing sites in civilian neighborhoods in Beirut and elsewhere.

Such a conflict is likely to harm Israel's image on the international level, but if it faces a major military threat, it will prioritize destroying this threat at the expense of its image.

Hezbollah operates as a de facto state within the Lebanese state, and is now reluctant to take military action against Israel due to the threat of massive military retaliation.

Hamas is different. It is an unaccountable government in a small pocket of land that is not economically viable on its own, and could explode at any moment.

It is possible for Hamas to come into conflict with Israel, but only in response to some unexpected incident, for example incidents or escalation in the West Bank or Jerusalem.

As for Hezbollah, it will not go to war unless Iran decides to do so and sees that other powers, such as Syria and Hamas, are engaged in a state of war and there is a high possibility of defeating Israel.

Israel will not escalate its military actions unless it is attacked or if there is a major attack on Israeli interests, such as an attack that resulted in a large number of victims falling on Jewish interests or groups in Europe.

American forces in a joint military exercise with the Israeli army (European)

Relations between the United States and Israel have improved dramatically since the end of the rule of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who divided American public opinion about him, as many considered him aggressive, seeking war.

By contrast, the current Israeli government is seen as less conflict-seeking, and thus Washington is certain to support Israel.

And if there is a war in general, the main American response will be to secure shipping operations in the Gulf from any Iranian attack, in addition to providing the latest weapons to Israel.