Tunisia -

Tunisian voters will cast their votes tomorrow, Sunday, in the second round of the legislative elections, amid expectations of weak participation. While some hope that the installation of the next parliament will bring stability, others believe that the political crisis will deepen more than in the past.

262 candidates who did not obtain the majority of votes during the first round of the elections, and the competition in the second round will be for 131 seats out of 161.

In the first round of the elections that took place on December 17, only 23 candidates won, including 3 women who ran for constituencies abroad, while 7 constituencies abroad remained vacant due to the fact that no candidacy was registered in them due to the complex conditions of the election law.

Expectations of weak participation in the second round of the Tunisian legislative elections and questioning the legitimacy of the next parliament (Al-Jazeera)

cool climate

These are the first legislative elections to be organized following President Qais Saeed's announcement of exceptional measures on July 25, 2021, according to which he froze Parliament, then dissolved the Supreme Judicial Council and the Anti-Corruption Commission, dismissed the previous government, then drafted a new constitution and amended the election law.

The legislative elections took place - since its first round - against the backdrop of a complex political, economic and social crisis that burdened the Tunisians and reinforced their feelings of disappointment due to the high cost and scarcity of basic consumer goods, while most parties boycotted the elections, carrying out a series of protests in the streets against President Kais Saied.

In the first round of voting, only 11% of the total of 9,136,000 registered voters participated, and the Electoral Commission attributed the low participation to the recent reliance of the voting system on individuals, while the opposition said that it was a message against the "revolutionary course of the president."

Bassam Maater, head of the Atid Organization (specialized in monitoring elections), says that the atmosphere in which the legislative elections are held is "dull and unsuitable for any political action," describing the electoral campaign for the second round as cold as a result of the weakness of the campaign activities, their lack of diversity, and their interaction with the voters.

Maatar does not rule out registering a much weaker participation in the first round of the elections due to the deepening economic and social crisis, as he tells Al Jazeera Net that "the country's crisis due to the poor performance of the current authority negatively affected the mood of the voters, and I expect greater reluctance in the second round."

Although he believes that the installation of the next parliament will be a starting point for the president's supporters to impose a new constitutional legitimacy, he believes that the weak participation, the broad boycott of the parties, and the lack of political competence among the upcoming deputies will create a climate of skepticism in Parliament.


arbitrary path

Sami Al-Tariqi, a leader in the Islamic Ennahda Movement, who was removed from power under the exceptional measures of President Saied, believes that "the legislative elections have ended in the first round after the people said their word," considering that the president's continuation of his electoral path is an escape forward to reject the fait accompli.

Al-Tariqi told Al-Jazeera Net, "The coup path that the president took is arbitrary and absurd, and it will further complicate the Tunisian crisis," ruling out any breakthrough in the political crisis once the new parliament is established, which he believes will be devoid of powers as a legislative and oversight institution.

He added that the next parliament will be dispersed, with a weak popular base, without a political belt, and with no powers, stressing that its inauguration will not restore credibility to the current regime, nor will it be allowed to appear in international forums with titles that “honor” the Tunisian state, as Tariki put it.

Al-Tariqi believes that a solution to get out of the Tunisian crisis is not available at the present time, due to the current government structure's refusal to dialogue with the components of society, stressing that there is no solution to the crisis and saving the country except for the current authority to assume its responsibility to open the door to comprehensive dialogue without any exclusion.

A side of previous protests by the opposition against President Qais Said on the anniversary of the Tunisian revolution (Al-Jazeera)

towards stability

On the other hand, the leader of the People's Movement, Badr al-Din al-Qammudi, told Al-Jazeera Net that the legislative elections are an important station for focusing the parliamentary institution and moving from an exceptional situation to a state of stability that enables reforms to be carried out.

The "People's Movement" supports the path of July 25, 2021 (Saeed's declaration of exceptional measures), and considers it a corrective path for the revolution due to the "failure" of the ruling parties - including the Ennahda movement - to manage the country after the revolution.

Al-Gammoudi believes that parliament will play an important role in enacting legislation and laws, ratifying agreements, keeping pace with the concerns of marginalized Tunisians in the regions, and advancing development in poor areas according to the available capabilities.

Although the election law changed the rules of the game so that the election is based on individuals instead of party lists, Al-Gammoudi confirms that most of the candidates believe in the path of July 25, and they have common elements among them to develop national perceptions and options to reform the situation.


By-elections

The preliminary results of the second round of the elections will be announced on the first of next February, provided that the Electoral Commission discloses the final results after completing consideration of appeals from the Administrative Court on the fourth of next March.

After his election, the next parliament will not have a full quorum in terms of the number of its deputies, as no candidate has applied for 7 constituencies abroad.

In the first plenary session, Parliament will have to register the vacancy and then write to the Election Commission to call partial elections.

Organizing partial elections will require the Election Commission time to re-invite voters and make new arrangements, and this may necessitate a re-amendment of the election law to reduce its complex conditions, as it stipulated among its conditions that a candidate obtain 400 recommendations from voters in his area before accepting his candidacy.