With the continuous optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, China's economic recovery is strong, which has strongly boosted confidence in global economic growth.
Recently, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and many other international investment institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023.
Many foreign chambers of commerce in China, such as the American Chamber of Commerce in China, the British Chamber of Commerce, and the German Chamber of Commerce in China, believe that China's adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy will help resume Chinese and foreign personnel exchanges and business travel, restore optimism in the market, and China will continue to be a priority destination for foreign investment.
According to expert analysis, in 2023, with the gradual recovery of demand and the superposition of policy effects, China's economic and social vitality will be further released, and it will continue to become a "stabilizer" for the recovery of the world economy and an "engine" for growth.
Optimistic about growth prospects
Various places have signed contracts to start major projects, chartered flights to "go overseas" to grab orders, and the catering and tourism market is gradually picking up...International investors have seen new opportunities in China, and foreign media have captured positive signals of China's economic development.
"In the context of a possible slowdown in the global economy, China's economic recovery may stand out." The US "Institutional Investor" magazine published a signed article saying that with relevant policy adjustments, China may become a "safe haven" for investors.
According to the website of Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao", a number of investment banks have successively raised their forecasts for China's economic growth this year.
JPMorgan Chase raised it from 4% to 4.3%, Goldman Sachs raised it from 4.8% to 5.2%, and Morgan Stanley, the most optimistic, expects China's economy to grow by 5.7% this year.
China's economic growth may rebound to 4.9 percent in 2023, according to a Reuters poll based on interviews with 49 economists.
The report quoted UBS chief China economist Wang Tao as saying that China's economic activities and consumption are expected to rebound strongly after March and April this year.
The British "Financial Times" quoted Citibank analysts as predicting that China's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2023 will increase by 11%, reaching 50 trillion yuan.
Investors and analysts are thus predicting "an even brighter year ahead".
According to an article in the US "Fortune" magazine, BlackRock, an internationally renowned asset management company, also released a research report predicting that China's GDP growth in 2023 may reach 6%, which will "shock" the slowdown in global economic growth.
According to a recent report by CNN, several key provinces in China have proposed growth targets for 2023, many of which are set above 5%, thus providing the first clues for the development path of the Chinese economy in 2023 .
According to the report, Chinese policymakers have adjusted measures for the technology industry and the real estate industry.
The signs have boosted confidence among investors and analysts who believe China's economy will rebound significantly in 2023.
According to the World Bank's latest China Economic Briefing, as global demand growth deteriorates, the aggregate demand structure of the Chinese economy is expected to gradually shift towards domestic demand.
With the improvement of consumer confidence and the release of consumer demand, China's consumption will gradually recover; continued infrastructure investment spending and investor sentiment will also promote the recovery of investment growth.
Strong development momentum
In 2022, China's gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed 120 trillion yuan, an increase of 3% over 2021; the total value of import and export of goods trade will be 42.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.7% over 2021; the balance of foreign exchange reserves at the end of the year will be 3,127.7 billion The U.S. dollar ranks first in the world... In the past year, China has withstood the pressure and achieved overall stability in economic operation.
"The achievements are hard-won." Ni Jianjun, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with our reporter that since 2022, in the face of multiple unexpected factors such as frequent outbreaks of epidemics and extreme high temperature weather. Shock, the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the development environment have increased. China's GDP has grown by 3%, and the economy has slowed down but has not stalled.
The continuous improvement of economic aggregate and per capita level means that China's comprehensive national strength, social productivity, international influence, and people's living standards have been further improved.
China's development foundation is stronger, its development quality is better, and its development momentum is more abundant. China's economy has strong resilience, great potential, broad space, and long-term positive fundamentals remain unchanged.
Xu Xiujun, secretary-general of the Emerging Economies Research Association and a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told this reporter that as the largest developing country with a population of more than 1.4 billion and the second largest economy in the world, in the past 10 years, we have focused on Concentrate on doing your own affairs well, and lay a solid foundation for coping with various risks and challenges, winning the initiative, gaining advantages, and winning the future.
Since the beginning of the year, China has continued to take strong steps in promoting high-level opening up.
On January 1, the "Catalog of Encouraging Foreign Investment Industries (2022 Edition)" was officially implemented. The new version of the catalog added the most entries in recent years, and implemented a provisional import tax rate lower than the most-favored nation tax rate for 1020 items.
Starting from July 1 this year, China will also implement the eighth step of tax reduction on the most-favored-nation tax rate for 62 information technology products.
After the adjustment, China's overall tariff level will be reduced from 7.4% to 7.3%.
These measures fully demonstrate China's firm will to continue to promote opening up and share development opportunities with all parties.
"In order to allow the world to better share China's development achievements and opportunities, China has built a number of high-level and high-quality import promotion platforms in recent years." Xu Xiujun said that the construction and development of platforms such as China International Import Expo and China International Consumer Goods Expo, It provides a strong guarantee for sharing China's market opportunities with the world and promoting the recovery of the world economy.
China's continuous promotion of high-quality economic development is also an important reason why the international community is optimistic about its growth prospects.
Spain's "Economist" reported that China is increasing investment in the digital economy and green economy, stepping up deployment, and actively promoting green and low-carbon transformation in the steel and energy industries.
The report quoted CICC data as saying that in the next five years, China's cumulative investment in the digital economy is expected to increase several times.
"People are diligent and spring comes early." Ni Jianjun said that multiple factors will promote China's economic recovery and strong growth. One of the important reasons is that the government has actively introduced measures to stimulate market vitality and boost consumer confidence.
Judging from the experience of countries around the world, after the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, consumption enthusiasm will soon return.
With the in-depth implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, the leading role of new kinetic energy in China's economy has become increasingly prominent.
boost global confidence
On January 10, the World Bank released the latest "Global Economic Prospects" report, lowering the global economic growth forecast in 2023 to 1.7%, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the forecast in June last year, the third lowest level in the past 30 years.
The report pointed out that due to factors such as high inflation, rising interest rates, reduced investment, and the crisis in Ukraine, global economic growth is slowing sharply to the point that it is "dangerously close to a recession."
On January 16, the World Economic Forum released the "Chief Economist Outlook" report, pointing out that nearly two-thirds of the surveyed chief economists predicted that the world economy is expected to experience a recession in 2023.
Amid pessimistic voices, the world places high hopes on China's economy.
Pei Deming, Director of the Economic Department of the Asian Development Bank Representative Office in China, believes that although the external environment will bring pressure on the Chinese economy in 2023, China has sufficient policy support space to support residents' consumption and real estate investment through fiscal and monetary policies.
"The tools in the policy toolbox are sufficient, but the key is to coordinate relevant policies well."
Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" website reported that at the beginning of the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, China became the only country among major economies that maintained positive growth.
With the economic downturn in Europe and the United States this year, the Chinese economy is expected to once again outshine others and shoulder the important task of promoting global economic growth.
Julia Simpson, President and CEO of the World Travel and Travel Council, said that Chinese tourists will inject momentum into the recovery of the global tourism industry.
Borger Brende, president of the World Economic Forum, said that China's optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies will drive the growth of service industries such as industrial output, investment and tourism.
As the world's second largest economy, China's opening up contributes to global economic growth.
Chen Guangyan, a professor of economics at Nanyang Technological University, pointed out that among the "troika" driving the global economy, only China is expected to accelerate its progress. "Although China's economic recovery still faces multiple risks, its growth potential cannot be ignored.
"China's development cannot be separated from the world, and the world's development also needs China. A stable Chinese economy is becoming more and more important to the world." Xu Xiujun said that the more open and confident China is, the more confident and open China will create more opportunities for the world with its own development , will promote the overall progress of mankind with Chinese-style modernization, bring new opportunities to the world with China's new development, and provide more stability and certainty for the turbulent world.
"At present, in the face of the severe and complex situation of the world economy, the risks and challenges that China needs to deal with, the contradictions and problems that need to be resolved are more complicated than ever before, but the Chinese economy is still capable of withstanding the pressure and continuing to resume development." Ni Jianjun said that China We will fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, better coordinate development and security, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, and vigorously boost the market Confidence, organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and prices, effectively prevent and resolve major risks, promote the overall improvement of economic operation, and achieve effective improvement in quality and quantity. The reasonable growth of the country will make a good start for the comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country, and will continue to inject more new momentum into the world economy.
People's Daily Overseas Edition