According to figures published Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor, the number of unemployed (category A, without activity) fell by 3.6% in France (excluding Mayotte), to 3.050 million, after almost stability in the third quarter.

Coming after an exceptional year 2021 (-480,000 unemployed), 2022 will remain a very good year with 312,000 fewer unemployed, a decrease of 9.3%.

The number of job seekers thus returned to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2011.

This development confirms that of the good indicators published at the beginning of the week.

Urssaf reported a record five million permanent hires signed last year.

"Full employment is also a good job. We are continuing our mobilization", welcomed the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt on Twitter.

Unemployment in France © Tupac POINTU / AFP

According to INSEE, the employment climate seen by business leaders also continues to improve, standing well above the long-term average.

"We remain surprised by the strong dynamism of the labor market. It is still not the inversion of the unemployment curve (upward, editor's note) that we expect because of the macroeconomic context" degraded, is surprised Mathieu Plane, Deputy Director of the Analysis and Forecasting Department of the French Economic Observatory (OFCE).

After GDP growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, INSEE expects a slowdown of 0.2% in economic activity in the fourth quarter and then a virtual stagnation of 0.1% in the first quarter. 2023.

“Companies continue to recruit despite a complicated horizon, whereas in our models, when we have growth that flirts with zero, we destroy jobs”, he underlines.

fewer unemployed seniors

Including reduced activity (categories B and C of Pôle Emploi), the number of job seekers however only fell by 0.8% (-5.1% over one year) this quarter to 5.394 million.

This marked effect this quarter of "communicating vessels" between categories A on the one hand and B and C on the other is partly explained, according to Pôle emploi, by an improvement in the updating procedure at the end of the month. occurred during 2022.

This technical development "would lead to a cumulative decrease of 105,000 jobseekers in category A between January and November 2022, increasing the number of jobseekers in categories B and C by 90,000 and exits by 15,000", according to the Public establishment.

This downside does not prevent the government from highlighting other positive signs on the labor market such as the reduction in the number of unemployed people under 25 (-9.8% over one year) and over 50. (-8.9% over one year) while the employment of seniors is one of the challenges of the pension reform.

On the long-term unemployment front, the number of job seekers registered for a year or more fell by 13.5% over one year but remained high at nearly 2.3 million (categories A, B and C).

They still represent 45.2% (-4.3 points over one year) of all job seekers.

To accelerate this fall in unemployment and achieve its objective of full employment - an unemployment rate of around 5% instead of 7.3% currently - the government is relying in particular on its reform of unemployment insurance which comes into force on 1 February.

This provides for a 25% reduction in the duration of compensation for all jobseekers who open up rights.

An unemployed person who would have been entitled, for example, to 12 months of compensation under the current system will only be entitled to nine months.

Seniors drop from a maximum of 36 months to 27.

A six-month floor will be preserved.

The first impacts are therefore expected from August 1st.

© 2023 AFP