It may be the spearhead to penetrate the Russian defenses.. Will 30 American tanks change the course of the war in Ukraine?

WASHINGTON

- After weeks of arguments made by President Joe Biden's administration that the American M1 Abrams tanks would be unsuitable for the Ukrainian army, the White House is expected to announce today, Wednesday, the United States' intention to send 30 of them to Ukraine.

The American side did not disclose the date of delivery, how it will be delivered, or where the Ukrainian forces will train to operate and maintain the tanks.

A few days ago, Washington announced the delivery of Bradley armored vehicles to Ukraine, and Ukrainian military personnel will be trained to use and maintain these vehicles outside Ukraine.

In conjunction with the American announcement, Berlin is also expected to announce its intention to send a number of "Leopard 2" tanks to Ukraine, while Britain confirmed in the middle of this month that it will send 14 of its "Challenger 2" tanks to Ukraine.

Ben Hodges, a retired general who previously commanded US forces in Europe, said this week that the tanks the West is supplying to Ukraine could be the spearhead for penetrating Russian defenses toward Mariupol and further isolating Crimea.

American tanks Abrams and German Leopard 2 during a military exercise in Spain (European)

The end of American hesitation

Washington's announcement of agreeing to send 30 tanks to Ukraine comes after US military officials said repeatedly that sending tanks is a very complex process, as it is difficult to maintain, and that it consumes a lot of jet fuel to operate its turbine engines, which is not easily available in Ukraine.

The American move would put an end to the unprecedented rift between NATO members who had contradictory positions on supplying Ukraine with tanks, as Poland and several other countries strongly supported this step, while Washington and Berlin rejected it, before their positions changed during the past hours. .

German officials had said initially that they would not be the first to send tanks to Ukraine, and would not do so unless the United States provided its own Abrams tanks, and this led to pressure on Germany and the United States to contribute their tanks.

The change in the US position is part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany, whereby Berlin agrees to send fewer of its Leopard 2 tanks, and also agrees to allow more German-made tanks to be delivered by Poland and other countries.

This shift in the US position comes in the wake of a call that took place on January 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Schultz, during which Biden agreed to consider providing Abrams tanks, contrary to the initial Pentagon estimate, which saw that it would be very difficult for Ukraine to deploy The tanks are used and maintained, and officials said it could take years for the tanks to actually reach Ukrainian battlefields.

Reports indicate that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin later came to the view that the commitment to send American tanks was necessary to motivate Germany to send its Leopard 2 tanks, and officials in the State Department and the White House argued that giving Germany the political cover it sought to send its own tanks outweighs hesitation. Ministry of Defense.

A senior German official says the issue has been the subject of intense negotiations between Washington and Berlin for more than a week, including discussions between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and his German counterpart.

The White House declined to comment on when the first Abrams tank would be delivered, but some US officials said it could take 12 months.

Zelinsky: We will be happy to express our gratitude for every military support decision (Al-Jazeera - Archive)

What's next for the tanks?

Speaking to the Ukrainian people on Tuesday evening, President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the dilemma of tanks, and said, "There is a lot of talk about tanks now, about modern tanks that we need, however, discussions must end with decisions. When decisions are reached, we will be happy to express our gratitude." Every decision matters."

Since the start of the Russian war on Ukraine more than 11 months ago, the United States and Europe have sent to Kyiv tens of billions of dollars in military aid, including heavy artillery, rocket launchers, millions of ammunition, air defense systems and infantry fighting vehicles, but without providing tanks or aircraft. fighter.

Ukraine's need for tanks has become more urgent in the past few months, as the war moved to a different stage at the end of the summer, after Ukraine managed to launch a series of successful counterattacks, outperforming Russian forces and forcing them to return to the east in a number of areas.

Military experts believe that if Ukraine succeeds in bringing in large numbers of advanced tanks from the rest of NATO countries, some of which possess advanced German and American tanks, it may be able to expel Russian forces from about 20% of the Ukrainian lands that are still occupied 11 months after the start of the Russian war. .

Ukrainian officials plan a counteroffensive in the coming months to retake territory, including to the south, where Russia has built a land bridge from Rostov to Crimea, and Russia, amassing hundreds of thousands of additional troops, is planning a major offensive along the contact lines.

U.S. officials have indicated that the Leopard 2 tank is the best fit for Ukraine because of its availability in many neighboring countries, and the ability to quickly build up supply and maintenance chains.

Many European countries use German-made Leopard 2 tanks, and 2,000 of them are deployed in a number of NATO countries across the European continent. Ukraine has called for tanks in recent weeks, describing them as necessary to confront Russia's superiority in weapons and troop numbers.