In a few weeks it will be an anniversary of the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The goal of subjugating the neighboring country and overthrowing its leadership within a few weeks has turned out to be a fantasy.
The reasons for this are well known: in its fight for survival, the Ukraine is putting up fierce resistance, while the Russian invasion troops, whose fighting power has been wildly overestimated, are unleashing their criminal rampage of destruction on the civilian population in particular.
It speaks volumes that mercenaries should turn the tide.
It also speaks volumes that former Russian President Medvedev is threatening a nuclear war in the event of a Russian defeat – which is apparently believed to be a possibility.
This threat is aimed at Western supporters of Ukraine.
The West was and is more determined to provide comprehensive assistance to Ukraine than Putin suspected.
His calculation that he could divide the Europeans did not work out.
Shortly after the turn of the century speech, a British diplomat said that Russia had "lost" Germany - the central power in Europe, whose political and economic elite had long shied away from drawing the necessary conclusions from the Kremlin's aggressive policies.
Russia has not only lost Germany, but most of Europe.
If Putin's intention was to draw a new border between Russia and Europe, not to mention America, he succeeded.
The separation from Europe will not be temporary, whether Moscow loses the war or keeps Ukrainian territory under its control;
it will continue to set Russia back.
Russia could slip into a phase of political unrest
In general, Russia's prospects are bleak.
Maybe that's why the Russian propagandists are seething with hatred.
Do you guess what's coming?
Russia's military is exhausted, the economy is suffering from the sanctions, the population is declining - hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled abroad since the beginning of the war.
Even if there is no evidence that the "Putin regime" is eroding, after a long war of attrition the country could slide into a period of great political unrest, such as in 1905, 1917 and 1989.
Parisian political scientist Bruno Tertrais recently outlined scenarios for Russia after its “probable” defeat.
They are dystopias.
They range from an isolated and radicalized "Fortress Russia" to a brutalized and fanatical "Mordor" bent on revenge, to the rule of militias and gangs.
Whether that is realistic remains to be seen.
One scenario would be comparatively “favourable”: a Russia in the zero hour like Germany after 1945. But the crucial prerequisites for this are missing: the tradition of the rule of law, the will to deal with the legal situation, a well-meaning protective power.
The West will continue its strategy of deterrence, containment, and political and economic isolation of Russia.
He also has to do that – keyword tank deliveries – if he is serious about this sentence: “Ukraine must win.” Moscow doesn’t have that much to counter that;
the alliance with China has limits.
No matter how long the war lasts, Ukraine will find its future in the West.
Putin's imperial fantasies, on the other hand, are becoming a long-running nightmare for the Russians.