Russian spies and supremacists behind the mystery of the letter bombs in Spain?

It could be the cross between a disaster movie and a new episode of James Bond: the Russian secret service pushing supremacist movements to carry out terrorist attacks in Europe.

However, this is the situation described by the New York Times in an investigation published on Sunday January 22 devoted to the backstage of a recent campaign of letter bombs sent to various leading Spanish personalities, including the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.

At least six letter bombs and one injured

Agents of the GRU - Russia's main military intelligence service - allegedly used members of the Russian ultranationalist and supremacist paramilitary group, Imperial Russian Movement, to send at least six letter bombs between late November and early December 2022, according to US officials and Spaniards interviewed by the New York Times on condition of anonymity.

These letters did not cause any casualties, except for an employee of the Ukrainian Embassy who was injured in the fingers during the explosion.

A link with the war in Ukraine had quickly become the main lead of Spanish investigators due to the targets chosen by the terrorists.

Besides the Prime Minister's Residence, the Ministry of Defense, the US Embassy and the Ukrainian Embassy also received explosive folds.

Instalaza, an arms company that has supplied grenade launchers to Ukraine, has also been targeted by this campaign, which has been described as “terrorist” by Madrid.

The Spanish authorities quickly realized that senior members of the Imperial Russian Movement's organizational chart were in Spain at the time the letters were sent.

Founded in 2002 in St. Petersburg;

this small group described as ultra-nationalist, racist, anti-Semitic, and which advocates the return of a tsar to the head of Russia, was the first far-right movement to be included on the American list of terrorist organizations in 2020 .

It has already distinguished itself on several occasions through acts of violence, whether in 2014 in Ukraine or later in Libya and Syria.

“After the invasion in Ukraine, the Imperial Russian Movement wanted to spearhead a supremacist international by cultivating contacts in Europe and the United States.

The group dubbed this networking 'the last crusade',” writes Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, which maintains a directory of major transnational supremacist groups.

The Russian Imperial Movement implicated in other attacks

The Russian Imperial Movement has also opened two paramilitary training centers for militants from all countries.

Two Swedish extremists, convicted in 2017 of planting bombs in a literary café and refugee shelters, had been trained there a year earlier.

The involvement of these far-right Russians in an international terrorist campaign is therefore not so surprising.

But from there to see the hand of the GRU?

Specifically, U.S. authorities suspect agents from Unit 29155 - who form a kind of elite team of GRU assassins - of having been in charge.

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“There are a lot of rumors and nothing established with certainty about the links between Russian far-right groups and the intelligence services.

It is assumed that a group like the Russian Imperial Movement has links in the political world and even within the presidential administration.

It is also typically the kind of organization likely to be able to allow itself to be influenced by the GRU for this type of operation”, estimates Mark Galeotti, British specialist in the Russian intelligence services and director of Mayak Intelligence, a consultancy on the security issues in Russia.

It would also be a modus operandi already used by Russian spies.

"They have used criminal organizations to act in their place in different countries in Europe in the past," said Dan Lomas, a specialist in intelligence services at Brunel University in the suburbs of London.

In 2011, for example, the Czech intelligence services were alarmed by the contacts established between Russian spies and organized crimes in the country. 

The goal “would be to send a signal while making it very difficult to attribute to the GRU”, summarizes Dan Lomas.

In the Spanish case, the involvement of the Russian Imperial Movement is reminiscent of a remote-controlled operation from Moscow, but there is nothing to formally accuse the Russian intelligence services.

The GRU as a master puppeteer?

If the GRU is really linked to this campaign, it brings back to the fore “one of the main fears of the intelligence community at the start of the war: that Russia would use its intelligence services to launch campaigns of destabilization against the West”, emphasizes Mark Galeotti. 

Moscow had so far refrained from doing so.

“There is a reciprocal desire in the United States and in Russia to avoid an excessive escalation of tensions”, explains the British expert.

And terrorist attacks on European soil or cyberattacks against “critical infrastructure would inevitably lead to a Western response,” says Mark Galeotti.

The letter bombs could be "a warning shot", said Nathan Sales, a former head of counter-terrorism issues during Donald Trump's presidency, interviewed by the New York Times. 

Discussions around sending tanks to Ukraine could have prompted the Kremlin to be more enterprising… without going too far.

“It's a way of saying that we are capable of acting in the heart of Europe without launching an attack that is too destructive”, analyzes Dan Lomas.

For him, the idea would be to “give arguments to those in Europe who want to limit support for Ukraine.

They can now say, 'look there is a real risk for us'”.  

Still, the choice of the type of operation - parcel bombs - may surprise the GRU, an agency that has never shone with its restraint, whether by trying to poison the ex-double agent Sergei Skripal in 2018 or participating in a pro-Serbian coup attempt in Montenegro in 2016, believes Mark Galeotti.

Spain is not a symbol of Western support for Ukraine either “and to send a message, it would have been more effective to target a country like Poland”, believes this specialist. 

Another explanation would be that the GRU cannot currently do much more.

The Russian intelligence services “operate in a very difficult environment for them currently in Europe where they are watched very closely”, notes Mark Galeotti. 

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