Interview
Leopard tanks: the German hesitation
Audio 03:38
A Leopard battle tank, here in Western Finland, May 4, 2022. AP - Heikki Saukkomaa
Text by: Franck Alexandre
3 mins
After a meeting of Ukraine's allies at the Ramstein base on Friday, January 20, no decision was taken on a possible delivery of heavy tanks.
Berlin is reluctant to take the plunge.
Cyril Bret, researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, deciphers the reluctance of part of the Western camp.
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RFI: Why is Germany so reluctant to authorize the transfer of leopard tanks to Ukraine?
Cyril Bret:
I see three major reasons.
Firstly, a tradition of not exporting defense to armed conflicts, secondly a long-standing relationship with Russia which aims to avoid any provocation and the nature of its equipment may appear to Moscow as a provocation.
Third, of course, the desire to line up behind the American leader, which is also a German strategic tradition….
As long as Washington does not move, Berlin will hesitate to move?
Exactly.
The choice is very clear with its equipment: either support a major Ukrainian offensive to prevent a possible Russian offensive, or wait for the Russian attack and provide Ukraine with the means to respond.
For the moment Washington has decided, it will be the reaction, not the passage to the offensive, and Berlin has aligned itself with this option.
For the Kremlin, this is a red line?
Yes, we have seen that the statements from the Kremlin, generally quite contemptuous in the end for the German statements, insisted on the fact that the potential delivery of heavy tanks, that is to say capable of allowing a major offensive and a reconquest of the four Oblasts which were illegally annexed last September, this delivery of heavy equipment would be a red line.
This would be a sign that the Europeans not only support the Ukrainian resistance but also support a major counter-offensive which could be carried out on the Russian borders.
This is the substance of the Muscovite statements.
Why are these western tanks so strategic for kyiv?
In this category of tanks, we see the potential for a rapid reconquest and from the point of view of Moscow, the military capacity also to obtain superiority over the armored divisions and the Russian cavalry, and therefore of an offensive which would eventually overflow on Russian territory itself.
If there is pressure on Berlin, is there also pressure on Paris for France to sell its Charles Leclercs?
There you go, it's exactly the same equation, with this difference that Paris has always wanted to support Ukraine in its defensive but not offensive policies.
But the two countries, France and Germany, are making kyiv the subject of a weak lawsuit from certain circles, which obviously serves the interests of kyiv to be able to obtain more support, especially in military form. , and the criticisms that emanate from certain military circles in Kyiv are quantitative and qualitative.
Quantitative: not enough
Qualitative: the materials provided are not efficient enough.
It is certain that after a year of war, the deliveries made by Paris and Berlin have been dosed in such a way as to ensure the support of the Ukrainian forces but also not to appear as too radical a provocation with regard to Moscow.
There is an urgent need to obtain these materials, said President Volodymyr Zelensky. Does Ukraine fear a vast Russian counter-offensive in the next few weeks?
Certainly.
Ukraine is preparing for a Russian offensive as soon as the mobilization takes effect.
The BITD (Industrial and Technological Base of Defense, editor's note) of the Russians was put in working order several months ago to switch to a war economy in the long term and from a strategic point of view the Russian authorities will not give up not to this military operation until they have obtained a substantial gain or victory or which they can present as substantial to its own opinion and to its own decision-making circles.
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