It decreased by about 850,000 at the end of 2022..Researchers explain to Al-Jazeera Net the reasons for the decline in the population in China

BEIJING

- The United Nations expects China's population to drop to 1.313 billion by 2050, and less than 800 million by 2100, according to the United Nations "medium variant".

The data announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in China came to confirm the expectations of the United Nations, as it showed a decrease in the country's population for the first time since 1961 by about 850 thousand at the end of 2022, to become about 1.4105 billion people.

Although the Chinese government abandoned the one-born policy, and allowed each family to have 3 children with financial incentives, it failed to increase the fertility of the population, and is moving towards giving up the title of the largest country in the world in terms of population in favor of India, which raises several questions about the reasons for this decline. And its impact on the country and possible ways to address it.

China decided to allow couples to have 3 children after a restriction for many years and in the wake of serious indications of a (European) population decline

What are the reasons for the decline in the population of China?

The Pew Research Center concluded that the reasons for the decline in the population in China are the decline in the total fertility rate, as last year it reached 1.18 children per woman, which is much lower than the global average of 2.1 children per woman.

In addition to having fewer children overall, women in China choose to have children at an advanced age, as the average childbearing age in China has increased since 2000 from 26 to 29 years.

The research center also indicates that the population is aging rapidly in the country, as the percentage of those over 60 years is estimated at 20% of the population, in addition to the superiority of the number of male births over females, which led to a significant imbalance in sexual imbalance by about 30 million men more than women since 2021. .

According to the China Immigration Information Center, the country continues to record a negative immigration rate of (-11), with more people immigrating from China annually than migrating to it.

Chinese researcher in financial affairs Kai Wei believes that negative population growth is a serious signal that rings the alarm bell for social development in China.

He added - in a comment to Al-Jazeera Net - that the government and the relevant functional departments should take more effective measures, especially providing maternity subsidies to families with several children, by giving them more real money in education, medical treatment, employment and housing to reduce the burden of childbearing and distribute its responsibility between the family, government and society.

Why did efforts to stimulate childbearing not work?

According to the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute, China is among the most expensive places to raise children, and these economic concerns are linked to women who do not want to have more children these days.

According to researchers, improving social security for pensions has weakened the idea of ​​having children to prevent old age, especially after young families have been subjected to great economic pressure due to high housing prices and high medical care, with little government support.

Beijing has offered a range of incentives to couples and young families to encourage them to have children, including cash grants, tax cuts and even real estate concessions, but many say these measures have not been comprehensive enough to stabilize low birth rates.

Chen, 32, who lives with her husband in Beijing, says she cannot handle the responsibility of a new birth.

Despite her work in a state-owned institution that provides good maternity leave, and their parents take care of the grandchildren, she - as she adds to Al Jazeera Net - is not interested in having more children.

By 2035, people over the age of 60 are expected to exceed 400 million, nearly one-third of China's population.

The number of children in China is declining in favor of those aged 60 and over (Shutterstock)

How does population decline affect the future of China and what is the way to confront it?

Officials have taken steps in recent years to try to slow the decline in births, but they have ebbed by moving too slowly to ease restrictions on birth policies.

Given the current social reality, the negative population growth means an exacerbation of the aging of Chinese society that will lead to a shortage of employment, which is directly related to tax revenues and contributions to the pension system, which is already under enormous pressure.

Changing the retirement age may address some of the issues, as the country has maintained the age of 60 for men and 55 for women for nearly four decades, even as life expectancy has risen.

Two years ago, the Chinese government presented a plan to gradually raise the retirement age by 5 years, but this step is very unpopular, and it was not addressed at the opening of the annual parliament session last year.

Yi Fuxian, an expert on demographic changes in China, notes that the demographic and economic outlook for China is more bleak than expected.

He added - in a tweet on Twitter - that China must adjust its social, economic, defense and foreign policies, in order to adapt to this decline in population, which came about 10 years earlier than the expectations of Chinese officials and the United Nations.

As for researcher Kai Wei, he said that China will become a country with the vast majority of foreign immigrants in a few decades or hundreds of years, or it will slowly disappear.