China's National Bureau of Statistics released its population statistics on the 17th.
According to the announcement, as of the end of last year, China's population was 1.41175 million, down 850,000 compared to 2021.
It is the first time in 61 years that China's population has decreased since 1961, when Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward caused a famine and tens of millions of people starved to death.
China's birth rate at lowest since 1949 "Pregnancy postponed due to corona"
China faces the 'double trouble' of not only a declining birth rate but also an increasing death rate.
Last year, 9.56 million babies were born in China.
The birth rate, which is the ratio of births per 1,000 people, is 6.77‰, significantly lower than 7.52‰ in 2021.
This figure is the lowest since China began compiling census data in 1949, and it is also the first time since the founding of New China (People's Republic of China) that China's birthrate has fallen below 10 million.
As in other countries such as Korea, it is becoming increasingly difficult to buy a house in China, and the cost of living and raising children has increased significantly, so fewer young people want to get married or have children.
The number of first-married people in China in 2021 was 11.57 million, down 6.1% from a year ago.
The Chinese government has abolished the two-child policy in 2021 and is introducing various childbirth support policies, but they are not effective.
COVID-19 was also a factor.
China's state-run Global Times said, "There are people who postpone pregnancy because of Corona 19, such as vaccination and viral infection."
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The highest death rate since the Cultural Revolution... 270,000 deaths in one year
The rising death toll also fueled China's population decline.
Last year, 10.41 million people died in China, and the death rate per 1,000 people was 7.37‰.
The death rate of 7.37‰ is the highest since 1976, the last year of the Cultural Revolution.
In other words, the highest number of deaths per population since the Cultural Revolution, when many people were purged, last year.
In 2021, China's death toll was 10.14 million, and the death rate was 7.18‰.
This is an increase of 270,000 deaths over the past year.
The Chinese government and state media have not disclosed the reasons for the increase in deaths and deaths over the past year.
However, an estimate is possible.
As the Chinese government turned its quarantine policy 180 degrees from 'Zero Corona' to 'With Corona' on December 8 of last year, the number of Corona 19 infections in China exploded.
There are also studies that estimate that more than 900 million of the 1.4 billion people have already been infected.
The Chinese government announced that from December 8 last year to January 12 this year, there were 59,938 deaths from Corona 19 for about a month.
This was the first time the Chinese government released a comprehensive death toll, including those with underlying conditions.
However, even this included only those who died in hospitals, and cases that died at home due to lack of hospital rooms were not included.
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The death toll statistics provide some measure of the actual death toll from COVID-19 in China.
The number of deaths from Corona 19 announced by the Chinese government was counted until January 12 this year, but by the end of December last year, the number of deaths had already increased by 270,000 from the previous year.
A lot of this could be due to COVID-19.
In particular, in many provincial cities and rural areas in China, where the elderly population is large, the number of deaths from Corona 19 could increase significantly as the spread of Corona 19 began in earnest this year.
Airfinity, a British medical data analytics firm, estimated that between December 8 and January 12, the number of deaths from COVID-19 in China would reach 580,000, which seems more reliable than the Chinese government's announcement. .
Declining workforce... Countdown to China → India, the world's most populous country
This population decline in China is expected to have a significant impact on the Chinese economy.
As is well known, the huge population of 1.4 billion has driven China's growth in all areas, including production and consumption.
China has been able to establish itself as the 'factory of the world' because of its abundant labor force.
However, the proportion of the population aged 16 to 59, who can work immediately, decreased from 62.5% in 2021 to 62% last year.
Just 10 years ago, China's working age population was 70%.
China is also expected to give India its place as the world's most populous country within this year.
In the 'World Population Prospects 2022' report released last year, the United Nations estimated the population of India at 1.417 billion last year and the population of China at 1.426 billion.
China's population has fallen far short of this figure, and even if the Indian population reaches the UN projection, India will overtake China.
Previously, the United Nations predicted that India's population would surpass China's by 2027, but the reversal period is brought forward by four years.
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China is not in a position to worry too much.
The Global Times quoted a population research expert and predicted, "(The number of people who have decreased) is 850,000, a very small number compared to the total population of 1.4 billion." .
This means that the younger generation who delayed pregnancy and childbirth because of Corona 19 can start giving birth this year.
However, the situation of Corona 19 in China is still unstable.
Concerns are constantly being raised that a new mutation may emerge and spread again.
It is unclear whether the younger generation will actively engage in marriage and childbirth as the Chinese government hopes.
Moreover, those who died during the peak of COVID-19 earlier this year will be reflected in this year's demographics, which will be announced this time next year.
This is why China's population decline seems inevitable this year as well.