Moscow -
Moscow and Minsk started the first joint military aviation exercises for this year in Belarus, which are scheduled to continue until February 1, and include all airports and training areas for air forces and air defense systems in the former Soviet republic, which is Moscow's ally.
The defense ministries of the two countries did not specify the number of participating aircraft, and within what concept the exercises will take place, but in all cases they will include conducting aerial reconnaissance operations, joint patrols along the borders, air support for the forces, the landing of tactical forces, as well as the delivery of supplies and the evacuation of the wounded.
As for the Russian Foreign Ministry, in what appears to be an attempt to prevent the interpretation of the objectives of the maneuvers outside the officially announced context, it has been keen to stress that it is an attempt to "deter escalation."
Partnership or alliance?
It is known that Belarus granted the Russian army the possibility of using its lands and military infrastructure, so Kyiv and Western countries consider it a party to the conflict, which Minsk vehemently denies, and confirms that it did not send its forces to the battlefields in Ukraine.
However, Western countries are closely watching the joint military activities of Russia and Belarus.
In order to understand the Western interest in this cooperation, one should recall the agreement signed last year between Moscow and Minsk to establish a single defensive space, which the West assumes that, taking into account the modernization of the Belarusian military aviation and the retraining of pilots, this single defensive space can, at a theoretical minimum, be turned into a weapon. one nuclear.
Besides, the situation on the border between Belarus and Ukraine cannot be called calm.
Mutual accusations between the two countries emerge from time to time of shooting towards the border and violating the demarcation signs.
Minsk says that attempts to conduct a dialogue through the border commissioners and the lines of the ministries of defense have not yet yielded positive results, and that it is on constant alert in anticipation of provocations.
The escalation of military cooperation and the repetition of joint military maneuvers between Russia and Belarus raise a number of questions, especially in light of the continuing war in Ukraine, and the possibility that Minsk will become a party to it.
The Russian Ministry of Defense did not publish an official statement explaining the nature of the military maneuvers with Belarus, but it did publish video clips of it (the ministry's website)
Are they routine or precautionary maneuvers?
In answering this question, Russian military expert Victor Litovkin indicates - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the military aviation of the two countries will work together during the exercises, which means that there is a unified order to ensure a state of maximum readiness in the event of external threats.
According to him, the interaction of the two countries in the field of airspace includes tactical flight exercises, which is a very important issue, because the S-400 air defense systems that Russia recently delivered to Belarus require use at the highest level of coordination.
On the other hand, the current exercises may pave the way for joint nuclear missions in the future, which will require a negative and sharp reaction from Western countries.
Litovkin continues that the United States initiated the violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which prohibits the transfer of such weapons to non-nuclear states, and therefore, the statements of Moscow and Minsk regarding the training of crews are likely to mean that Russia and Belarus begin to conduct similar nuclear missions.
Will Belarus enter the Ukraine war?
The director of the Minsk Dialogue Council, Yevgeny Bergerman, believes that the possibility of Belarusian forces participating in the Ukrainian war is out of the question unless a strike is directed inside Belarus that can be considered intended, and not just as happened last December, when Minsk announced that a Ukrainian missile It fell in the Brest region, which was not a sufficient reason for escalation, as in the case of the missile fall in Poland last November.
He continued - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the Belarusian leadership and people do not want to participate in the Ukrainian war, because if the Belarusian army joins the Russian forces, it is almost certain that the combat operations will move to Belarusian lands.
As for the extent to which the hypothetical participation of Belarusian forces will affect the course of the war, they can hardly change the dynamics of hostilities.
According to Brigherman, the Belarusian army includes about 65,000 personnel, including 45-50,000 military personnel.
"Even against the background of partial mobilization in Russia, these are insignificant numbers," he concludes.
Military maneuvers include conducting aerial reconnaissance and joint patrols along the border (Associated Press)
Is Minsk exposed to Russian pressure to participate in the war?
The director of the Russian Center for Political Forecasting, Denisk Karkodinov, believes that Moscow, on the one hand, does not - yet - need direct Belarusian military intervention with it, and on the other hand, it understands the consequences of this decision on the inside of Belarus, which is not currently ready to accept the idea of participating in the war. packing declaration.
And he recalls the statement of President Alexander Lukashenko, who affirmed - explicitly - that his country's participation in the war depends on the threats to its national security.
According to Karkodinov, it is sufficient for Moscow, in the circumstances of the current war, that no one be able to strike it in the back from the Belarusian lands, and at the same time thwart possible attacks against Minsk, from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, under the guise of the special Russian military operation, and the necessity Intervention to help Ukraine.