China's population ushered in negative growth, what do you think? what impact?

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 17th, China's total population will decrease in 2022.

　　Specific data show that at the end of the year, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and active servicemen, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) was 1,411.75 million, a decrease of 85% over the end of the previous year. million people.

The annual birth population was 9.56 million, with a birth rate of 6.77‰; the death population was 10.41 million, with a death rate of 7.37‰; the natural population growth rate was -0.60‰.

　　This means that China's population has ushered in negative growth.

What do you think?

　　The seventh national census data show that China's population has continued to maintain a low-speed growth trend in the past 10 years.

　　According to the seventh national census, the total population of the country is 1,411.78 million, an increase of 72.06 million or 5.38% compared with 1,339.72 million in 2010 (data from the sixth national census), and the average annual growth rate is 0.53%. , 0.04 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of 0.57% from 2000 to 2010.

　　It is worth noting that a recent UN population forecast shows that India will surpass China in mid-April this year and become the most populous country in the world.

　　Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center of Renmin University of China, said that negative population growth is the inevitable result of the long-term low birth rate after the demographic transition.

Japan and South Korea, both located in East Asia, have entered negative population growth in recent years.

From the perspective of population development law, negative population growth is inevitable under the background of persistent low birth rate in the post-demographic transition era.

　　Zhang Xuying, a researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, pointed out that negative population growth is a major trend change in the process of China's population transition.

In the face of negative population growth, it is urgent to grasp the initial conditions, internal logic and trend characteristics of negative population growth, objectively view, actively adapt to, and actively respond to negative population growth.

　　Zhang Xuying pointed out that a large population, a large economic aggregate, an aging population and fewer birthrates, advantages in human resource endowment, population urbanization, and large regional differences in population development are the initial conditions for my country's negative population growth.

what impact?

　　"Negative population growth will change the structure of my country's population pressure." Zhang Xuying believes that among the pressures of China's large population, the pressure of the young population will decrease, and the pressure of the rapid growth of the elderly population will continue to increase.

　　Zhang Xuying said that as the total population enters negative growth, the spatial distribution of China's population presents the Matthew effect that both "agglomeration" and "shrinkage" are strengthened.

The population of the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other regions and urban agglomerations continues to grow, while the population of rural areas, northeast China, and some urban areas may shrink at an accelerated rate.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in terms of urban and rural composition, the urban permanent population was 920.71 million, an increase of 6.46 million over the end of the previous year; the rural permanent population was 491.04 million, a decrease of 7.31 million.

　　In addition, Zhang Xuying pointed out that with the negative population growth, the characteristics of family miniaturization and family structure diversification have become more prominent, and the proportion of one-person households and households with elderly people living alone has continued to rise.

　　Yuan Xin, a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University and vice president of the Chinese Population Association, said that negative population growth is two sides of the same coin for economic and social development. A new mechanism and new path for transforming opportunities into real demographic dividends.

　　Yuan Xin believes that before the 1970s, China was still one of the two countries with a population of more than one billion in the world, and the potential market size was huge. With the continuous development of the economy, the income level increased, and the consumption power was strong, which brought about a realistic super-large The size of the market is immeasurable.

Data map

what to do?

　　Zhang Xuying pointed out that my country has a huge population and obvious advantages in population endowment, and there is still a lot of room for tapping the potential of population to support economic development.

It is necessary to establish a fertility support policy system to promote the realization of a moderate fertility level, which can continue to optimize the population structure.

　　Zhang Xuying suggested that to adapt to the trend of negative population growth, implement the national action of "Strong Start" for infants aged 0-3, promote human capital investment from early life, improve human capital input and output benefits, and continue to improve population competitiveness.

Further optimizing the allocation of population and space resources can release new institutional dividends.

　　Song Jian pointed out that strengthening family development is an important part of building a fertility support policy system.

In the face of negative fertility-led population growth, increasing the fertility rate is the only option to curb the long-term severe negative population growth.

In the process of building a fertility support system, we must pay attention to family development, reduce family burdens, relieve family worries, improve family development capabilities, and create necessary conditions for reversing the plight of low fertility.

　　Tao Tao, an associate professor at the School of Sociology and Population at Renmin University of China, said that encouraging births is one of the basic strategies for countries to deal with negative population growth.

First, countries with negative population growth will help women and families achieve the ideal number, spacing and timing of children by providing health care services to women and families.

Secondly, countries also focus on the balance between family and work, and promote gender equality in the employment field by implementing maternity leave systems, adopting flexible working systems, and building childcare institutions.

In addition, Sweden, South Korea and other countries will also reduce childbearing costs through measures such as subsidies, rent reduction and tax reduction, and reduction of children's college tuition.

　　"Human capital is the engine of economic growth." Yuan Xin pointed out that replacing population quantity with population quality is a common practice in developed countries for sustainable economic development.

my country is transforming from a country with a large number of human resources to a country with a large number of human capital. The quality-oriented population has accumulated a lot of opportunities and has become a new power source for stronger and more durable economic development in the new era.

　　Chinanews chief financial reporter: Li Jinlei