It has become one of the main topics of discussion among supporters of Ukraine.
The supply of battle tanks, demanded for several months by Volodymyr Zelensky, will be on the menu at the third meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine, Friday, January 20, at Ramstein Air Base, Germany.
This summit, at the initiative of the United States and bringing together some fifty countries, takes place in a crucial context for Ukraine.
A few weeks before the snow melts and while Russia is mobilized for a spring offensive, kyiv is loudly calling for the supply of Western tanks to its allies.
This weekend, the UK pledged to deliver a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, becoming the first Western power to sign off on sending main battle tanks to kyiv.
An announcement that further increases the pressure on Germany.
The manufacturer of the Leopard 2, the most widespread of its category in Europe, has so far not authorized the delivery of its precious tanks to Ukraine, despite the insistence of its allies.
On Monday, the German Defense Minister, much criticized for her handling of the Ukrainian file, suddenly resigned, leaving her successor, the Social Democrat Boris Pistorius, to manage this priority file.
The heavy weapons debate
This unexpected reshuffle in Germany comes at an extremely sensitive time for Ukraine's allies, as the debate over the supply of heavy weapons has reached a tipping point.
In recent weeks, NATO member states have begun to mobilize to send Ukraine the type of offensive weapons they have previously refused to supply for fear of provoking Moscow.
In early January, France was the first power in the world to respond to repeated pleas from kyiv for Western-made armored tanks by promising to supply AMX-10 RC light armored combat vehicles.
Although benefiting from a significant firepower, this vehicle equipped with wheels rather than tracks is not considered as a combat tank.
Designed for reconnaissance missions, it is not suitable for muddy and difficult terrain.
>> To read also: By delivering tanks to Ukraine, "France intends to pave the way"
Following in France's footsteps, the United States and Germany respectively announced the supply of around fifty Bradley combat vehicles and around forty Marders.
Armor equipped with tracks, certainly useful for transporting troops, but which do not benefit from the firepower of the tanks claimed by kyiv.
In this context, the announcement, last Saturday, of the dispatch of the British Challenger 2, the first real battle tank of Western manufacture, marks a turning point.
Military experts note, however, that the delivery of a squadron of 14 vehicles is not likely to significantly change the dynamics on the Ukrainian battlefield.
"The Ukrainian army needs a more sustainable tank fleet. Providing a small amount of Challenger 2 is a token gesture, not a sustainable option," says Shashank Joshi, defense specialist for British weekly The Economist and guest researcher at Kings College London.
"The real question is what will be done with the Leopard 2s, present everywhere in Europe".
Berlin at the center of the game
The Leopard 2 tank, first introduced in 1979 and upgraded in several series since, is used by 13 European armies: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey.
Together, these countries have "more than 2,000 variants of this vehicle", according to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
“The more countries donate tanks, the easier it will be to share the burden of transferring them to Ukraine,” ECFR said in a September 2022 report.
This sharing in the export of Leopard 2 to Ukraine would also allow a better distribution of training, says Rod Thornton, a researcher in the Department of Defense at Kings College London.
Because if the Ukrainian forces have the necessary know-how to use the tanks of Soviet design, it takes about two months for them to acquire the mastery of the tanks of the NATO system, he indicates.
Finally, sending the Leopard 2s would present a major advantage in terms of logistics.
Due to the large number of units present in Europe, the supply of the necessary support vehicles but also ammunition and repair equipment would be facilitated.
In this context, some countries like Spain or Poland have already offered to supply their Leopard 2 directly to Ukraine.
But this process, known as re-export, requires the green light from Berlin, which has so far remained reluctant to be associated with a military escalation that could be perceived as a provocation by Russia.
This are the countries with Leopard 2 tanks.
@JosepBorrellF has to urgently broker a deal between the 13 European states for a significant common delivery to Ukraine.
The Ukrainians are fighting to protect our territory and our values!
#LeopardsForUkraine pic.twitter.com/ZGfK0C5pbc
— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) January 7, 2023
Helmets, but no battle tanks
When the war began on February 24, Germany was considered the weak link in the Western response to Russian aggression, due to its heavy energy dependence on Moscow and its commitment to peace after -war.
The new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, then promised a decisive turning point, opposing Vladimir Putin head-on and announcing a massive increase in defense spending.
A year later, criticisms abound against the German leader, accused of not keeping his promises and of doing too little, too late.
On the front line, former defense minister Christine Lambrecht was widely mocked for offering to send 5,000 helmets to Ukraine as troops tried to block the advance of Russian tanks on the capital.
His sudden departure and the arrival at the ministry of Boris Pistorius, just a few days before the Ramstein meeting, raises many questions.
Immersed in the heat of the action as soon as he took office, the latter must meet the American Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, before the meeting on Friday, at the American air base.
Following the announcement of the dispatch of British tanks, Germany, faced with growing pressure from its allies, cannot remain silent, believes Rod Thornton.
The researcher nevertheless fears that the hasty change of minister in Berlin will weaken Western unity with regard to the making of strong commitments.
"There will be an increase in aid to Ukraine, but it can take several forms and sending Leopard 2s is not a given," he concludes.
Article adapted by David Rich from the English original
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