Belarus has been participating, since Monday, January 16, in "defensive maneuvers" organized on its territory with Russia, an additional step in the support provided to Moscow by its ultimate ally in Europe.
The country, led by Alexander Lukashenko since 1994, thus serves as a rear base for Russia.
By October, it was already hosting nearly 9,000 Russian soldiers, while treating the wounded and providing equipment and logistical support.
"Alexander Lukashenko uses all kinds of subterfuge to contain Putin's pressure, without accentuating the discontent of his own people, who do not want to go to war. He is somehow caught in a vice," observes journalist and historian Galia Ackerman .
>> To read also: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, is he going to war in spite of himself
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"Lukashenko manages to play a skillful game for the moment"
Because if Russia denies calling for Belarus to enter the war, observers say that Moscow's demands have become more and more pressing in recent months.
Vladimir Poutine thus went to Minsk last December, a first in three years.
But participating directly in the conflict could prove harmful for the Belarusian president, three years after a major protest movement and when the majority of the population is opposed to it.
“The Belarusian president is required to be very cautious, continues Galia Ackerman. If it is possible that he will end up resigning himself to going to war, his army is against it, and such a decision would weaken his power. time to play a skillful game of providing a sort of 'minimum service' to Russia."
A delicate position, while Belarus is more dependent than ever on its Russian neighbor.
The deployment of Russian soldiers in the country effectively deprives the regime of control of its own territory: as it did at the start of the conflict, the Kremlin can decide at any time to launch a new ground attack in Ukraine from Belarus, which is about a hundred kilometers from kyiv.
Economic dependency
The country's extreme economic dependence on Russia has also been reinforced by the measures taken to sanction the repression of the 2020 protest movement. Belarus thus depends on Russia for oil and gas, but also for the export of its manufactured goods, such as tractors, unsuited to the Western market.
"The majority of Belarusian exchanges go through Russia, reports the lecturer at Bordeaux-Montaigne University Olga Gille-Belova. Belarus has also taken out a new loan from Russia in December. But, by selling off the sovereignty of Belarus, Lukashenko manages to strengthen his personal power. The regime grows stronger at the cost of the country's sovereignty, the war in Ukraine benefits him."
More than 1,430 political prisoners
The Belarusian president can indeed count on the renewed support of his ally, Russia absolutely in need of stability in the last friendly space he has left in Europe.
Far from the doubts of 2020, Lukashenko can now count on the support of the Kremlin, which seems assured to him.
A weighty argument, further reinforced by the isolation of the country on the international scene, which cuts off the opposition in exile from all contact with the population.
"If discontent persists in the country, war and repression prevent civil society from mobilizing, develops Olga Gille-Belova. The 'new iron curtain' which has fallen on Russia and Belarus finally protects Lukashenko, keeping the opposition at bay."
The regime is also taking advantage of this to perfect the violent repression it has been deploying against any protest since the presidential election of August 9, 2020, deemed fraudulent by the international community.
Refugee in Vilnius, in Lithuania, the leader of the opposition in exile Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa is thus judged, Tuesday, in absentia, in Minsk, a modality permitted by the adoption of a law in July 2022. She incurs up to 20 years in prison, and his citizenship could also be withdrawn, thanks to a decree signed on January 5.
A political trial, following those organized last week, against Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski and journalists from the former Tut.by website.
A wave of repression, far from stopping: according to the Belarusian NGO Viasna, there are 1,439 political prisoners currently detained in Belarus, for 9.34 million inhabitants.
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