Driven by China's unremitting efforts, the "Belt and Road Initiative" has provided a popular international public product and a platform for international cooperation, and it has also added certainty to an uncertain world.
2023 is the 10th anniversary of the "Belt and Road" initiative, and the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" is facing new opportunities, which will bring more positive and far-reaching influence on world development and governance.
New variables in the international environment
The historic significance of jointly building the “Belt and Road” lies not only in the fact that it is an international initiative advocated and promoted by China, the largest developing country in the world, but also in the innovation of the international cooperation paradigm that it contains and has already had a wide-ranging and far-reaching impact.
On the basis of emphasizing "openness", the "Belt and Road" initiative has unprecedentedly highlighted the key word "connection", not only to open up to the outside world, but also to build roads and bridges.
Clearly, this implies a more aggressive globalization drive.
In this sense, some people regard the “Belt and Road” as an “expansion” of China’s power, not only because of political prejudice, but also because of their short-sighted view of history.
In essence, the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” is promoted by representative emerging countries, adapting to and promoting the new reality of globalization in the 21st century.
The deepest international background of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" is contemporary globalization.
To review the initial development of the “Belt and Road”, we must first analyze the pulse of globalization.
In 2013, when Chinese leaders planned the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, the world was still full of confidence in the development of globalization.
However, a few years later, anti-globalization thoughts began to flood, and the new crown epidemic triggered a once-in-a-century global economic recession.
The world in 2022 is at this historical low tide, and the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" is not only facing greater demand space, but also facing new risks and challenges.
Deglobalization intensifies.
In 2022, geopolitical turmoil will occur frequently, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will bring the greatest impact.
The West has imposed all-round sanctions on Russia, especially financial sanctions, which have plunged the economies and societies of many countries into risks and uncertainties. Europe as a whole has had to re-find sources of energy supply, many developing countries have to re-find sources of food supply, and a large number of transnational investments have been withdrawn or Reconstruction, the global media and the Internet are divided into different worlds, and the haze of "decoupling" and "broken chain" hangs over the world.
The plight of developing countries is deepening.
For many developing countries, 2022 will be a year full of disasters.
The economic and social impact brought by the new crown epidemic has not yet faded, and the impact of the global energy crisis and food crisis has come again.
The disruption of Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports has hit wheat-importing developing countries hard, and these tend to be countries of constant turmoil and disaster.
Not only has the number of hungry people in Africa not decreased, but it has further increased.
The combination of economic recession and inflation further threatens the financial security of developing countries and leads to more general debt problems.
The insolvency of the Sri Lankan state is just a footnote to the general plight facing developing countries.
The United States and the West are stepping up their "small circles".
The policy responses of the United States and the West to the “Belt and Road” initiative have undergone a process of change.
In recent years, as the international situation has changed and the United States has intensified its competition with China, major countries in the United States and the West have proposed some international infrastructure investment plans for the construction of the "Belt and Road", including the "Blue Dot Network" plan of the United States, the "Reconstruction Better World Initiative and Europe's Global Gateway Programme.
In June 2022, the G7 summit will integrate the infrastructure investment plans of the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed economies to form the so-called "global infrastructure and investment partnership", which marks that starting from 2022, the United States and the West will collectively initiate Direct competition against the Belt and Road Initiative.
The achievements of co-construction are still extraordinary
Against the above-mentioned international background, the "Belt and Road" construction has still achieved extraordinary achievements in the past year.
Alignment of development strategies and policies.
"One Belt One Road" contains two elements of "openness" and "connection".
It can be said that without the openness promoted by "policy communication", other "connectivity" will lack guarantee.
From the perspective of bilateral cooperation, in 2022, another 5 countries have signed cooperation documents with China on the joint construction of the "Belt and Road". "Cooperation document.
From the perspective of multilateral cooperation, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) came into effect, providing new multilateral rules for the construction of the “Belt and Road” in surrounding areas.
In addition, Chinese leaders put forward global security initiatives and global development initiatives, which have been gradually implemented in the "Belt and Road" cooperation framework.
Promote infrastructure connectivity.
Among the "connection" elements of the "Belt and Road", infrastructure interconnection is the key to "hard connectivity".
In 2022, a number of iconic infrastructure construction projects will be included in the history of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road".
The trial operation of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway became the first high-speed railway opened to traffic in the ASEAN region; the first expressway in Cambodia was officially opened to traffic; the China-Laos railway has been in operation for one year, which has significantly promoted economic and social development along the line; The Karot Hydropower Station and other major infrastructures have been put into operation.
When Europe and the world are facing economic difficulties, the freight volume of China Railway Express has grown against the trend.
The interconnectedness of infrastructure adds resilience to the economies of co-construction countries at risk.
Deepen practical cooperation in economy, trade and investment.
Although the global economy will face greater pressure in 2022, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries involved in the "Belt and Road Initiative" is still showing rapid growth.
In the first 11 months of 2022, China's total import and export volume to the "Belt and Road" countries will reach 12.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 11.8 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade.
During the same period, Chinese enterprises invested 128.38 billion yuan in non-financial direct investment in countries along the Belt and Road, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
This shows that under the difficult international economic environment, jointly building the "Belt and Road" has unique value.
Build bridges for mutual learning among civilizations.
With the advancement of the "Belt and Road" construction, mutual learning among civilizations has shifted from cultural exchanges at a broad level to focus on people's livelihood and development projects.
These so-called "small but beautiful" projects are complementary to the magnificent infrastructure construction projects and are closely connected with each other.
For example, "Luban Workshop" provides practical skills for the local labor force in the "Belt and Road" countries, and education programs related to agriculture and women have further formed brand effects in the past year.
New situation breeds new achievements
2023 is the 10th anniversary of the construction of the "Belt and Road".
As a new cooperation mechanism facing the 21st century, 10 years is just the beginning for the joint construction of the "Belt and Road".
Many important infrastructures have just been built, and they will gradually exert their economic and social effects in the long years to come.
But 10 years is another time concept that represents the medium and long term.
In the face of rapid changes in the global situation, we can stand at the time point of 2023 and look forward to the development trend of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road".
The new situation brings new opportunities.
Currently, the United States and Western countries have changed from spectators of the “Belt and Road” initiative to competitors.
Facing the new situation, our strategic strength can be firmly established on the historical advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative.
The lack of "openness" of "connection" will inevitably lead to the "scissors difference" between the advantaged countries and the disadvantaged countries, making globalization in a long-term unbalanced and inadequate state.
In contrast, infrastructure development and international connectivity form a tangible public good that is of key value for sustainable development and connectivity.
Moreover, the long investment cycle and slow return of infrastructure construction are not what the Western-style capitalist economic model likes and is good at.
The construction of the "Belt and Road" follows extensive consultation, joint construction and shared benefits, and the Chinese speed, Chinese wisdom, and Chinese contribution demonstrated are being recognized and praised by more and more co-construction countries.
Key areas have entered the harvest period.
The goal of "building roads" together is to "get rich" together.
For China, the connectivity effect of infrastructure construction will first bring sustainable economic development benefits to surrounding areas, and surrounding areas such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia will continue to be the highlights of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road".
In 2023, with the promotion of interconnection with neighboring countries, the manufacturing industry will continue to transfer and upgrade, and the industrial chain in the surrounding areas will be further restructured on the basis of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road".
From a broader perspective, China and the co-construction countries will further expand trade and investment cooperation through land and sea channels.
The level of development is richer.
The future-oriented "Belt and Road" construction will further open up "hard connectivity", "soft connectivity" and "heart connectivity", and integrate policy communication, facility connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds in specific joint construction projects and In the practice of development cooperation, "small and beautiful" livelihood and cultural cooperation projects will have more room for development.
"Connection" is a proposition of the century, which requires the participation of all-round, multi-level and three-dimensional forces.
The construction of the "Belt and Road" is also a big test for various localities, enterprises and social organizations in China.
Looking ahead to the next decade, the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" will open a new window of opportunity for China and the world.
The joint construction of the "Belt and Road" will not only make China a better place, but also the world.
(Author: Zhou Xinyu, professor and doctoral supervisor of the Institute for Advanced Study in Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University)