[World Report] Taiwan Invasion US-China War... US victory 'four conditions'

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The Taiwan Strait is drawing attention as the forefront of the hegemony competition between the US and China.

Although the United States agrees with the 'one China' principle, it is constantly sending warships and reconnaissance aircraft to the region to check China's military expansion.

On the other hand, China is willing to demonstrate armed force, saying that it will definitely block the access of Western powers, including the United States, to protect Taiwan's sovereignty.

While the likelihood of full-scale war between the US and China is low, the risk of a military conflict is growing.

In most scenarios, 'China fails to invade Taiwan'

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank, published a War Game report that hypothesized what would happen if a real war broke out in the region.

We conducted 24 simulations in a situation where China invades Taiwan in 2026.

Invasion always started with China striking Taiwan's navy and air force.

The large-scale bombing destroyed most of Taiwan's navy and air force within a few hours, and it developed in such a way that China initiated a large-scale amphibious operation with complete encirclement of Taiwan.

However, in the most probable 'default scenario', a Chinese aggression turns out to fail.

Despite the massive attack by the Chinese forces, Taiwanese ground forces were stationed on the coast, blocking the Chinese army's supply procurement and inland advance, and US submarines, bombers, fighters, and attack aircraft supported by the Japanese Self-Defense Force rapidly neutralized the Chinese fleet.

Chinese attacks on Japanese bases and the US fleet did not change the outcome.

However, it was predicted that such a victory for the United States would come at a considerable cost.

Under a base-case scenario, CSIS wrote that the United States and Japan would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of fighter jets and thousands of soldiers, and such losses could damage America's international standing for years.

The US Navy suffered losses of 2 aircraft carriers and 7 to 20 large surface combatants.

Although casualties were relatively low compared to equipment, even without adding to the South China Sea combat losses, which are not included in this wargame model, an average of 6,960 casualties occurred in the first three to four weeks of combat in the base scenario, of which about It came out that 3,200 people were killed in battle.

The damage on the Chinese side was greater, and in the case of the Chinese navy, it appeared to be a devastating blow.

The report predicted that tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers would be taken prisoner of war, and that 155 fighters and 138 major ships would be lost along with the loss of 10,000 troops.

In the case of the Taiwanese forces, it was estimated that 3,500 men and 26 destroyers would be lost.

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Taiwan defense success, 4 conditions

As a result of analyzing war games for each of 24 scenarios, CSIS revealed that four conditions must be met for allies such as the United States and Japan to prevent a Chinese invasion.

During the invasion, it appeared that some Chinese troops always succeeded in landing in Taiwan, and wrote that the Taiwanese army should be able to secure a coastal base and launch a strong counterattack as soon as the Chinese military's operational capability weakens.

The report advised strengthening Taiwan's ground forces, saying ground forces should be central to Taiwan's defense efforts.

The report made it clear that in the case of Taiwan, the 'Ukrainian model' of weapon support without participation in combat cannot be applied.

Unlike Russia's inability to block Western arms aid to Ukraine by land, China's rationale is that it can isolate Taiwan for weeks or even months.

He also pointed out that the US should provide Taiwan with the weapons it normally needs, and that if it delays its participation in the war or does not do its best in the event of an invasion of China, it will allow the Chinese side to secure a bridgehead, making Taiwan's defense difficult and increasing US damage.

Other allies, such as South Korea and Australia, are important in broader competition with China and may play a role in Taiwan's defense, but the key is Japan, the report said.

It was emphasized that without the use of USFK bases, US fighters and attack aircraft would not be able to effectively engage in combat.

The report said long-range anti-ship cruise missiles and bombers capable of long-range anti-ship attacks are the fastest way to defeat a Chinese invasion while minimizing U.S. casualties.

To this end, missile advancement and procurement were cited as top priorities.

The reason why 'self-defense' cannot be a simple slogan

What we need to pay attention to here is that the first condition for stopping the invasion of China is strong resistance by the Taiwanese army.

No matter how much support is provided from the outside, it is of no use if the person concerned is not strong in their will to protect it.

Unlike the fact that the United States was defeated in Vietnam despite heavy casualties, we can clearly see that it turned the tide of battle in Ukraine, which only provided weapons and other military support.

Experts say that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan immediately.

However, this is only a short-term outlook.

It is only a matter of time, and there are not a few observations that China will eventually take over Taiwan.

The fact that the United States is moving its semiconductor production, which was heavily dependent on Taiwan, to the United States or Central and South America also adds strength to this observation.

One expert even explained that the fact that the question of whether the US will intervene in the event of a Taiwanese crisis, which is constantly being talked about in the US, is evidence that it will not be the case.

Predicting the future is pointless.

It is all the more so because Taiwan's strategic value, such as semiconductors and the South China Sea, is not small, and it is not known what the US-China relationship will be like in the future.

However, no matter how high the geopolitical value is, there is no country that will protect it until the loss that exceeds its own profit.

It is a point that Korea should not forget, as it is receiving support from the United States amidst the inter-Korean confrontation and the competition for supremacy between the United States and China.