"The reform will only pass with the support of LR or it will not pass," warned Friday the boss of LR deputies Olivier Marleix after a meeting with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne.

The Republicans hold, with their 62 votes, the key to an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which would allow the government to avoid recourse to article 49.3 to impose the text without a vote.

Éric Ciotti, who is dealing with his first big file as party president, hinted on Sunday that an agreement was possible, saying in the JDD ready to "vote a fair reform" in the name of "coherence" and the responsibility".

Because pensions are a fetish subject for LR.

Almost all the reforms of the last thirty years have been carried out by right-wing governments, from the extension of the contribution periods to 40 years (under Balladur in 1993), to the raising of the retirement age to 62 years ( during the Sarkozy presidency in 2010).

And for five years, the Senate with a right-wing majority has voted each year, without success, to raise the legal age to 64.

"I have the impression that the government's landing point will be the Senate's proposal", welcomed the boss of senators LR Bruno Retailleau after an interview with the Prime Minister whom he felt "open" to several right-wing proposals.

"Red Lines"

The text presented on Tuesday should propose a postponement to 64, and no longer to 65 as initially planned – the age of 65 was however in Valérie Pécresse's program during the last presidential election...

Annie Genevard, MP for Les Républicains (LR), at party headquarters on December 11, 2022 in Paris © Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP/Archives

Aware of their power, the Republicans set other conditions.

Éric Ciotti notably asked that the reform could "spread over two five-year terms", with an increase in the starting age to 63 in 2027 and then 64 in 2032.

On small pensions, the planned increase to 1,200 euros per month should not be "reserved for future entrants but also for current retirees", said Olivier Marleix.

"This will be one of the conditions of our vote", warned Éric Ciotti.

If they believe they have been heard, LR officials are nonetheless vigilant.

In a tense social context, which makes the LR asset valuable, will some be tempted to raise the stakes?

Unsuccessful candidate for the presidency of LR, Aurélien Pradié has repeatedly expressed his hostility to the postponement of the starting age.

Convinced of the risk "that we cut ourselves off from the popular electorate", the deputy for Lot intends to recall three "red lines" on Tuesday in a meeting of his group, in particular on small pensions and those of women.

It is especially necessary, according to him, that "the duration of contribution crushes the legal age" when the 43 years are reached.

Olivier Marleix seemed to go in this direction on Friday, believing that "at some point, duration must prevail over age".

Bruno Retailleau told him about a "mix" between age and contribution period.

"We are not here to defend the government", argued LR MP Annie Genevard, promising that LR would not be "anyone's auxiliaries".

"If we are led to vote for this reform, it is because it will bear our mark", she insisted on Public Senate.

“The LRs of the Assembly are stuck”, estimates a Renaissance executive, while the ex-LR Renaud Muselier criticized on Cnews Eric Ciotti and his anti-Macron campaign to win the head of the party.

He "finds himself as a young president (...) to vote almost immediately the law proposed by his worst enemies".

The National Rally has clearly identified the breach.

The Republicans "will they have courage or will they sell themselves once again?" Asked the president of RN Jordan Bardella, while Marine Le Pen denounced "yet another agreement between Macronie and LR".

© 2023 AFP