Arthur de Laborde, edited by Laura Laplaud 07:53, January 09, 2023
The Prime Minister will unveil the highly controversial pension reform on Tuesday.
Unless there is a last-minute change, Elisabeth Borne should announce a postponement of the starting age to 64 with an acceleration of the extension of the contribution period.
A scenario that the Republicans should vote for and which would make it possible to pass the reform without resorting to 49.3.
Soon the moment of truth in the very sensitive issue of pensions.
Elisabeth Borne will officially unveil the content of the reform on Tuesday and barring a last-minute change, the scenario of postponing the retirement age to 64 with an acceleration of the extension of the contribution period is the one that has been recorded. .
On the political level, even if obstacles persist, a compromise seems possible with Les Républicains (LR) as suggested by the new president of the party Éric Ciotti, in an interview published on Sunday in the
Journal du Dimanche
.
A vote of the LRs would allow the executive to pass the reform without resorting to 49.3.
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"Using 49.3 means taking the risk of accentuating the feeling of brutality"
"A forced passage would add fuel to the fire, it must be avoided at all costs", explains a heavyweight from Macronie.
“To use 49.3 on such an unpopular reform is to take the risk of accentuating the feeling of brutality and strengthening social mobilization”, abounds a minister.
However, if the agreement with Les Républicains is not reached, "we will not hesitate to go through box 49.3", warns a majority executive.
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Pension reform: will leaving at 64 help balance the system?
In this hypothesis, the government will be able to brandish the constitutional weapon in an unlimited way on pensions while keeping a joker for another text by the end of the parliamentary session in June.
According to information from Europe 1, it is indeed the formula of the amending Social Security financing bill that has been retained.
A budgetary framework which also has another major advantage for the government: it limits the examination of the text by Parliament to 50 days in total, including 20 for the first reading in the National Assembly.
For the strategists of the presidential camp, this time limit aims to discourage attempts at obstruction and blockages while preventing the debate from dragging on, which could allow social protest to grow.