With McCarthy elected Speaker of the House, America's chaos won't end

　　■ column

　　From the capture of Capitol Hill by Trump supporters to the election of the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 15th round, Capitol Hill showed different "chaos" twice, which is a cyclical cycle of American politics.

　　On January 7, local time, after four days of debate and 15 rounds of voting, Republican leader Kevin McCarthy finally won enough votes to be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives.

After the 1923 speaker election, this is the longest speaker election in the United States in 100 years.

　　Coincidentally, at almost the same time, there were riots on Capitol Hill in the United States two years ago that shocked the U.S. ruling and opposition parties.

On January 6, 2021, a large number of Trump supporters violently broke into and occupied the Capitol.

　　Two years later, Capitol Hill produced the Speaker of the House after a lengthy vote and complicated political deals.

In an evenly matched political game, a "black swan" is almost inevitable.

In just two years, Capitol Hill has shown different "chaos" twice, which is a cyclical cycle of American politics.

　　GOP rifts remain deep

　　In the mid-term elections in 2022, the Democrats did not lose, and the Republicans could not even talk about winning.

The Democrats maintained a slight advantage in the Senate with the vice president's vote, while the Republicans won 222 seats in the House of Representatives. The advantage is not obvious, but it should not be difficult to cross the threshold of 218 votes.

　　In recent years, polarized politics has become popular in the United States, and veto politics has become the general rule, and the boundaries between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are clearly defined.

All 212 members of the Democratic Party voted for their party's candidate.

It is almost impossible for Republican congressmen to vote for Democrats.

　　Therefore, the election of the speaker of the House of Representatives became a game within the Republican Party. McCarthy was blocked by hardliners in the party from the very beginning. At one time, 20 congressmen did not support McCarthy, and his votes were far lower than those of the Democratic candidates.

　　With no serious contenders in the Republican Party, the speaker election becomes a matter of when McCarthy can persuade, or force, hard-liners in the Republican Party to change their attitude and vote for him.

　　The rift in the Republican Party runs deep.

The election of the speaker has become a hardliner in the Republican Party McCarthy, how to win the support of the ultra-hardliners, it can even be said that the election of the speaker has become McCarthy's personal "practice".

Therefore, moderate members of the Republican Party called for an end to "personal politics" as soon as possible.

The rifts in the Republican Party include at least the layers of rifts between moderates and hardliners, powerful members and ordinary members, and the personal style of members.

　　McCarthy has repeatedly compromised with hardliners

　　There are similarities between this speaker election and the 2020 general election.

Going through the entire election process is an "extreme pressure" on electoral politics, including the presentation of election details. During the dozen or so rounds of voting, McCarthy had to "conquer" one vote at a time.

　　In the process, the value of the opponent's vote is magnified many times over.

It is conceivable that the bargaining positions of the congressmen who still do not support McCarthy will increase rapidly in the end. This is also an extreme game process.

　　On the way to the speaker, McCarthy had to make a series of compromises to bridge the many rifts in the Republican Party.

　　Republicans who do not support McCarthy believe that the power of the House speaker's office should be weakened to give rank-and-file lawmakers more influence on legislative issues.

The compromise McCarthy made included pushing for early internal elections to oust the speaker if a member dissatisfied with his legislative policies or the way he ran the House.

　　This means that the speaker's power will be relatively limited.

Of course, the inevitable result is the localization of the politics of the House of Representatives, and each congressman needs to fight for the interests of his own constituency.

How to turn local demands into national will is a process of political games.

McCarthy's compromise obviously gave ordinary congressmen, especially the hardliners in the Republican Party, more voice.

　　In addition, as a deal, McCarthy also allowed some conservative lawmakers to enter key committees in the House of Representatives and promised to put their legislative priorities on the voting agenda.

　　Such political deals can also spur opportunism—hardliners who don't cooperate can gain more power.

In particular, entering the key committees of the House of Representatives means that you can gain greater influence and voice, and also gain more help for your re-election as a member of the House of Representatives, so that you can become a senior member of the House of Representatives and even aspire to the speaker.

　　Of course, the deals and compromises between McCarthy and Republican hardliners have also aroused criticism from the Democratic Party and moderates in the Republican Party, consuming political resources and the political reputation of the House of Representatives due to "personal politics".

　　From January 6, 2021 to January 6, 2023, the performances of "powerful" political figures such as Trump, Pelosi, and McCarthy will have fewer and fewer audiences, and the curtain on their stage is gradually falling.

　　□Sun Xingjie (Professor, School of International Relations, Sun Yat-sen University)