The American nuclear umbrella at the heart of the debates in South Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, December 15, 2022. via REUTERS - KCNA

Text by: Nicolas Rocca Follow

3 mins

In recent days the nuclear issue has been at the heart of the debates after the recent belligerent declarations of Kim Jong-un who says he wants to exponentially increase his nuclear arsenal.

The South Korean and American administrations have announced that they are preparing a coordinated response to a possible North Korean nuclear attack.

This could involve joint planning or simulation exercises. 

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From our correspondent in Seoul

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The United States guarantees South Korea that its nuclear arsenal will be used in the event of an attack by North Korea, but no atomic bombs as such are on South Korean territory.

In the 1990s, all nuclear missiles were retired.

In North Korea, on the contrary, the arsenal has diversified and considerably improved.

But the American superiority in the field remains indisputable.

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The South Korean president is trying to change the situation, because that is his political line.

If Moon Jae-in, his predecessor, was in favor of dialogue, he is in favor of firmness with more joint exercises with the United States in order to guarantee the preparation of the army in the event of conflict and a response to each action. North Korean which he qualifies as provocation.

In addition, South Korean confidence in the American ally has been shaken by the Trump presidency and the precedent of Ukraine, which also did not have atomic weapons, worries Seoul.

Yoon Suk-yeol is therefore seeking to convince Washington to give a greater role to South Korea in the management of its atomic weapons.

Evidenced by his interview, Monday, January 2, during which he mentioned the existence of possible joint exercises involving nuclear weapons, a possibility quickly rejected by Joe Biden.

The US administration, for its part, opened the door to more involvement from Seoul in planning a nuclear response and reiterated its commitment to defending their ally.

It's hard to know if that will be enough.

A recent study by the Institute of Peace and Unification showed that more than half of South Koreans were in favor of South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons itself.

► To read also: "The alliance between the United States and South Korea goes beyond the North Korean threat"

Deterrence, denuclearization: what scenario?

Yet difficult to imagine that Seoul launches its own nuclear program.

Yoon Suk-yeol assures us that this is not relevant.

But the debate is increasingly present here.

Some experts believe that this would put the two Koreas on an equal footing and that they could then discuss denuclearization.

Proponents of the program also cite the precedent of Israel, India or Pakistan achieving de facto nuclear power status without becoming completely isolated internationally.

Others are in favor of redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons on South Korean soil, to deter North Korea from attacking its neighbor or continuing with its excessive missile fire.

But these scenarios seem to obscure the consequences of the reaction of China, Seoul's main economic partner and which would certainly not be happy to see an American ally acquire nuclear weapons on its doorstep.

Japan is also unlikely to be sympathetic to the United States allowing a South Korean nuclear program.

Finally for Washington, it would also mean the end of the main justification for its military presence in an increasingly strategic region.

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• South Korea

• North Korea

• Yoon Suk-yeol

• Nuclear

• United States

• China

• Japan