The Paper reporter Teng Han

  As various regions gradually enter the "two sessions" period, the 2022 economic "transcripts" of some trillion-dollar GDP cities and the main goals of economic and social development in 2023 have been released.

  The Paper reporter combed and found that as of January 4, Jinan, Qingdao, Changsha, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Dongguan and other trillion GDP cities have released relevant data.

  The previous Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the current foundation for my country's economic recovery is not yet solid, the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations is still relatively large, and the external environment is turbulent, which has deepened the impact on my country's economy.

However, we must see that my country's economy is resilient, has great potential, and is full of vitality. The effects of various policies continue to show, and the overall economic operation is expected to rebound next year.

  At the same time, the Central Economic Work Conference put "strive to expand domestic demand" as the first item of economic work in 2023, and emphasized that "the recovery and expansion of consumption must be given priority" and "effective government investment and policy incentives must be Drive the investment of the whole society".

  The reporter noticed that among the trillion-dollar GDP cities that have announced growth targets for 2023, most of the GDP growth targets have been lowered than the 2022 targets, but they are all higher than the actual GDP growth rate in 2022; at the same time, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption have become The top priority of many governments in 2023.

  Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Xingtu Financial Research Institute, told The Paper that the setting of local growth targets for 2023 shows that on the one hand, localities are optimistic about the economic recovery in 2023, but on the other hand, they are also facing some challenges. Realistic pressure requires constant adaptation and overcoming.

2023 GDP growth target finalized

  The "Economic Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 2023" jointly released by the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Social Sciences Literature Publishing House on December 13, 2022 predicts that China's economy will grow by about 5.1% in 2023. further recovery.

  Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, also said recently that 5% is a bottom line for GDP growth in 2023.

  Specific to the local level, among the 24 trillion GDP cities, Jinan, Qingdao, Changsha, Hefei, Zhengzhou, and Fuzhou have announced their GDP growth targets for 2023, and the value is between 5.5% and 7%. Among them, Zhengzhou, Changsha They are 7% and 7% respectively, Hefei and Fuzhou are 6.5% and 6.5% respectively, and Jinan and Qingdao are 5.5% and 5.5% respectively.

Except for Jinan's GDP growth target, which is the same as that of the previous year, the GDP growth targets of the other five cities in 2023 have been lowered compared with the previous year.

  However, recovery is still the main theme of the economy in 2023. Compared with the actual performance of GDP in 2022, the target for 2023 is still optimistic.

  The data shows that from the perspective of the total regional GDP in 2022, Jinan is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, Qingdao is expected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan, Hefei is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, and Dongguan is expected to exceed 1.1 trillion yuan; In terms of growth rate, Changsha is expected to grow by 4.8%, Hefei is expected to grow by about 3.6%, and Fuzhou is expected to grow by more than 5.2%, all of which are lower than the corresponding 2023 GDP growth targets of the three cities.

  "Considering the low base effect in 2022, coupled with the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, the disturbance of the epidemic to the operation of various industries will gradually be eliminated, and efforts to restore the economy must be the top priority in 2023, and follow-up may be released More policies to support, so economic recovery is a high probability event, the target for 2023 is a little higher than the actual growth rate in 2022." Fu Yifu said, but on the other hand, the growth target has been lowered than the previous year's target, "This is based on local considerations based on their own realities. The long-term impact of the three-year epidemic is prone to the so-called 'scar effect'. The negative impact on the urban economy is difficult to eliminate immediately, and it will take an adaptation period."

  Some cities have also lowered their growth targets for industrial added value above designated size.

For example, Zhengzhou set the target for 2023 at more than 8%, which is lower than the 10% growth target for 2022; More than 9%, lower than the previous year's target of more than 9%.

In addition, Jinan has a slight change in expression. The expected growth of this indicator in 2023 and 2022 is about 6% and more than 6% respectively.

  In addition, some of the above-mentioned cities have also announced growth targets for investment and consumption in 2023.

Zhengzhou and Hefei have set their fixed asset investment growth targets at 10% or more in 2023, of which Zhengzhou is at 15% and Hefei is at about 10%, both of which are higher than the previous year's target.

Changsha, Jinan, Qingdao, and Fuzhou set their fixed asset investment growth targets at 6%-7% in 2023, of which Changsha is above 7%, Jinan is about 6.5%, Qingdao is about 6%, and Fuzhou is 6%, all lower than last year's goal.

  Zhengzhou and Fuzhou have set the growth target of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2023 at 10% or more, of which Zhengzhou is 12% and Fuzhou is 10%, both of which are higher than the previous year's target.

Hefei, Changsha, Jinan, and Qingdao's 2023 total retail sales growth targets range from 5% to 9%, of which Hefei is about 9%, Changsha is 7%, Jinan is about 5.5%, and Qingdao is more than 5%. , except for Hefei, which was the same as the previous year, the growth targets of the other three places were all lowered compared with the previous year.

Promoting consumption has become the top priority of some cities

  "Focus on expanding domestic demand" is the first item in the 2023 economic work deployed by the Central Economic Work Conference. social investment."

  The "Strategic Planning Outline for Expansion of Domestic Demand (2022-2035)" issued in mid-December 2022 clearly stated that looking forward to a period of time in the future, the characteristics of the domestic market leading the national economic cycle will become more obvious, and consumption has become the main driving force for my country's economic growth. Combining the optimization and upgrading of residents' consumption with modern technology and production methods, my country, the most potential consumer market in the world, will continue to grow and expand.

  Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, once wrote an analysis that looking forward to 2023, consumption will rebound significantly with the restoration of consumption scenarios, recovery of income growth, the introduction of consumption promotion policies, and the low base effect. The annual growth is expected to be 9.0% year-on-year.

  Judging from the contents of the 2023 government work reports published by the above-mentioned cities, many cities put the expansion of domestic demand, especially the promotion of consumption, at the forefront of key tasks.

  Among the 12 key tasks deployed by Qingdao in 2023, "continuing efforts to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth" is the first item. It is required to give full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment, vigorously implement consumption expansion and upgrading actions, and accelerate Implement major infrastructure investment projects to continuously release the potential of domestic demand.

  In Qingdao's government work report, consumption was particularly emphasized, and policies and measures to boost contact consumption were clearly introduced to promote the accelerated recovery of cultural tourism, accommodation and catering, wholesale and retail industries.

  Among the nine major aspects of work in Fuzhou in 2023, "insisting on expanding domestic demand" is also the first item, which requires strengthening the endogenous driving force of economic development, including accelerating the upgrading of consumption, giving full play to the key role of investment, and promoting regional coordinated development.

  Among the eight key tasks deployed by Hefei in 2023, in the first item of "greater efforts to promote high-quality economic development", it is clearly stated that the development and strengthening of market players, the expansion of effective investment, the acceleration of consumption recovery, and the strengthening of factor support Assure.

In terms of promoting consumption, Hefei stated that it will give priority to the recovery and expansion of consumption, comprehensively improve the energy level of consumption, and strive to become an international consumption center city.

  In the second item of the ten key tasks of Jinan in 2023, "Focus on maintaining stable economic growth and accelerating the improvement of development quality and efficiency", it is proposed to continue to expand project investment, improve the efficiency of investment attraction, promote the recovery and expansion of consumption, and promote the increase of foreign trade. quality and accelerate the development of the private economy.

  "Expansion needs to focus on the role of consumption." Fu Yifu said that compared with investment, the performance of consumption in 2022 is relatively sluggish. In other words, there is more room for growth in future consumption.

However, the biggest problem currently restricting the release of residents' consumption potential is the lack of confidence in residents' consumption. "The root cause of the lack of confidence is that the impact of the epidemic has damaged the balance sheets of many households." Therefore, it is necessary to repair household balance sheets and boost consumer confidence. The focus of the breakthrough, in this regard, first of all, we must stabilize employment and allow more people to have a stable source of income. Second, in the long run, we must focus on promoting the reform of the income distribution system for residents, narrowing the income gap among residents, optimizing the consumption environment, and solving consumption pain points, etc. , to promote the release of domestic demand.

The construction of a modern industrial system has its own focus

  Accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system is the second item in the 2023 economic work deployed by the Central Economic Work Conference.

  In this regard, Changsha, Hefei, Qingdao, Jinan, Fuzhou and other cities all have layouts, but the emphasis is different.

  Changsha focuses on advanced manufacturing, and requires the in-depth implementation of the "Thousands and Tens" project for industrial development, upgrading the "1+2+N" advanced manufacturing industry cluster, and accelerating the development and application of cutting-edge technologies such as new energy, high-end equipment, and artificial intelligence. , to promote the high-end, intelligent and green development of the manufacturing industry.

  Hefei puts "speeding up the development of integrated clusters of war-new industries" in the first item of "constructing a modern industrial system with higher quality", and proposes to enhance the service efficiency of the "chain length system", optimize the layout of "16+N" key industrial chains, and accelerate Strengthen the three major industrial clusters of new display, integrated circuit, and artificial intelligence, and strive for new energy vehicles and biomedicine to become the second batch of national and new industrial clusters.

  Qingdao proposes to promote the expansion and upgrading of advantageous industries, the development of emerging industry clusters, the forward-looking layout of future industries, the optimization and upgrading of modern service industries, and continue to improve the resilience and safety level of 24 key industrial chains.

  Jinan emphasizes "unwavering adherence to a strong industrial city", and requires that the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry be unswervingly taken as the main direction of attack, and the three-year action to accelerate the construction of a strong industrial city will be implemented.

  Fuzhou emphasizes the development of characteristic modern agriculture, the promotion of new industrialization, the optimization of the "four major economies", and the construction of a new system of modern service industry.

(The Paper)