Ukraine, China, Turkey, Iran... It is clear that there are regions of the world that every forecaster of what the world will be like in 2023 should focus on.
However, prediction remains a dangerous game, as there is often something that is impossible to predict, such as the sudden death of a ruler, a coup, an epidemic, a financial collapse, etc., which undermines all analyzes from their basis within a few hours.
This is what the French writer for Le Point magazine, Gerard Arnault, prepared an article in which he tried to summarize some of the most important expectations globally, Europe and France.
As for the Europeans, he says: The war in Ukraine will remain their main concern in 2023, and there will be hope for an end to the conflict within the next 12 years, which is unlikely in the near future, according to the writer who says that the Ukrainians are delighted with the successes they have achieved on the ground, while the Russians hope to restore what was taken from them.
While achieving a decisive unilateral breakthrough would change the rules of the game, experts rule that out at this stage, as Russia will not give up the lands it annexed, and Ukraine will not surrender to the fait accompli, so the conflict is expected to continue, according to the author.
After that, the year 2023 may raise another matter related to the extent of the West’s insistence on continuing support for Ukraine, as it is expected in Washington first that the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives will try to limit or, at least, set conditions for the assistance provided by Washington to Kiev, just as Europe, whose economy has worsened Under the weight of all the effects of war and separation from Russia, it may be pressured by its public opinion to demand that it stop supporting Kyiv.
Another geopolitical concern for Europeans is Turkey, which is entering a difficult election year for the current majority, in the context of the republic's centenary, and the concomitant conflict in the Aegean Sea with Greece.
The Iranian nuclear program continues to cause concern, as Tehran is close to obtaining what is needed to produce a nuclear bomb - according to the article - which it says that Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv will not accept, and it does not rule out, in this case, strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
However, all these fears, including Covid-19, remain minor, according to the author, if compared to the "great conflict" between China and the United States that would shape all international relations in the coming decades, and the dialogue between the two superpowers is still ongoing, which alone is the guarantor. To achieve stability - still - in the drafting stage.
Therefore, the writer says: It can be said that Europe enters the year 2023 with general doubts, whether at the political, financial, economic or health level, and all this in light of the populist climate in which most Western democracies live.