The American Time magazine published an analytical article that sheds light on what it described as the growing risks in 2023 on the political and economic levels, which concern many world leaders and decision-makers.
In the article prepared by the International Affairs Editor, Ian Bremer, and published under the title “The Ten Most Important Global Risks in 2023,” the newspaper indicated that concerns about threats to democracy have been exaggerated, and that the most prominent risks will be as follows:
1. "Rogue Russia"
The Time correspondent believes that Russia - which is under a suffocating blockade - will turn from a global player into the most dangerous rogue country in the world, which will pose a serious threat to European countries, the United States and other countries.
He said that Russia, mired in the Ukrainian quagmire, which no longer has anything to lose in light of isolation, Western sanctions, and massive internal pressure to show strength, will resort to waging an asymmetric war against the West to harm its interests, through thousands of small operations, instead of outright aggression and invasion that requires military force. And economic Moscow no longer owns.
He expected that Moscow's undeclared war would include attacks by hackers linked to the Kremlin targeting companies, governments and infrastructure in Western countries, and he expected Russia to intensify its attack on Western elections by supporting and financing disinformation and extremism, as well as continuing to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure.
2. "The Powerful Shi"
Among the risks cited by Ian Bremer in his analysis is that Chinese President Xi Jinping now leads the political system in his country in a manner unprecedented since the era of the late leader Mao.
He said that Xi now has the ability to implement his political and nationalist agenda without any obstacles.
But the absence of opposing voices that can challenge his decisions makes the chances of him committing major long-term mistakes a great possibility as well, which represents a major global challenge, given the pivotal role that China plays in the world economy.
3. Weapons of mass confusion
Recent advances in technology represent a major shift in the ability of artificial intelligence (AI) to manipulate people and destabilize societies, and 2023 will be a turning point in this direction, according to the Time article.
Bremmer said - in his article - that the new form of artificial intelligence - known as "generative artificial intelligence" - will allow users to create realistic-looking images, videos, and texts without costing them only a few directive sentences.
He expected language models produced by AI to pass the Turing test, which tests the ability of machines to imitate human intelligence.
He also expected that image control would become a thing of the past, in light of the rapid development of “deep faking” programs, facial recognition techniques, and voice synthesis.
He said these tools will help authoritarian rulers to undermine democracy abroad and stifle dissent at home, and will also enable mobs and populists in democratic countries to weaponize AI for narrow political gains at the expense of democracy and civil society.
4. A shock wave of inflation
The Time article highlighted that the wave of inflation that began in the United States in 2021, then swept the rest of the world in 2022, will have strong economic and political effects this year.
It will be the main reason for the world entering into an economic recession, and it will exacerbate market volatility and financial pressures, and its political repercussions will be devastating in various parts of the world.
5. Confrontations between the West and Iran
In his analysis, Bremer expected that the current year would witness confrontations between the West and Iran, which is facing internal tension and external challenges.
6. Energy crisis
He also expected that geopolitical and economic factors and production problems would combine to create tougher conditions in the energy market, especially in the second half of 2023, which would raise the cost of living for families and companies, and increase the financial burden on governments that depend on imports, in addition to To widen the gap between OPEC Plus and major consumers.
7. Global development has stalled
Global GDP has tripled over the past two generations, almost all countries have registered a level of growth, and more than a billion people have escaped extreme poverty and become middle class in many countries.
However, this progress was aborted by the many crises that have occurred in the world in recent years, which were represented by the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the rise in inflation around the world.
The Time article believes that the conditions of billions of people will be more fragile in 2023, with the loss of the economic, security and political gains gained in the years of prosperity.
The middle class will shrink around the world, and many countries will experience a lot of political instability.
8. Division in America
Among the risks that Bremer touched upon in his analysis is the possibility of deepening political polarization in the United States, which he said was able to avoid a slide towards a constitutional crisis in the upcoming presidential elections, thanks to the results of the midterm elections, but it will remain one of the most politically polarized and dysfunctional advanced democracies in the world. 2023.
He said that the possibility of outbreaks of political violence is high, and that the extreme political polarization between states with a Republican majority and those governed by Democrats will make it difficult for American and foreign companies to deal with the United States as one cohesive market, despite its clear economic strength.
9. Challenges of the TikTok Generation
Bremmer highlights in his analysis that the generation born between 1990 and 2010 is the first generation that has no experience of life without the Internet.
He found in digital devices and social media means of cross-border communication, which made him the first truly global generation, which makes him a new political and geopolitical player in his countries, especially in the United States and Europe.
He believes that this generation has the ability and incentive to organize its efforts via the Internet to reshape corporate and public policies, which will make conditions very difficult for companies around the world, and this generation may be able to disrupt politics in a country with the push of a button.
10. Water scarcity
In conclusion of his article, Bremer highlighted that water scarcity will represent a global challenge this year, while governments will continue to deal with it as a temporary crisis.
He suggested that the concerned authorities move from dealing with water scarcity as a crisis, to dealing with it by managing the risks related to water scarcity.
He said that this shift will not be achieved in 2023, which will necessitate investors, insurance companies and private companies to search for solutions to deal with this challenge, each according to its own way.