Kiev -

There is no doubt that Russia's war on Ukraine was one of the most prominent events of 2022, and that the resistance of the Ukrainians, with great Western support, shocked Moscow, and apparently reinforced Kiev's determination to reject dialogue and liberate all of its lands in 2023, despite the size of the losses and damages incurred. in the country.

Although the beginning of the war was a shock to the Ukrainians themselves, and settled the controversy of their denial of it despite many Western warnings, and although the Russian forces quickly reached a distance that separated them from the borders of the city of Kyiv, only about 7 km, the scene of the war changed after one month, and Ukraine was then able to "liberate About 54% of the lands entered by Russia are north, east and south.


During the past months, Kyiv took steps that its leaders described as painful to the Russian side, such as striking the cruiser "Moscow" - the legend of the Russian navy - and bombing the "Crimea Bridge", and bombing several sensitive sites deep in Russia, before Moscow shifted towards focusing on bombing vital energy and water facilities in Ukraine.

A negotiated political solution does not seem to have any immediate future, especially after Russia annexed 4 Ukrainian provinces to its borders despite international rejection, and Ukraine adheres to the liberation of all its lands by force, including Crimea and the entire Donbass region, and Kyiv adheres to an international security treaty that stops the war and prevents its recurrence.

In its 11th month, the Russian war on Ukraine raises several questions, regarding its expected course in 2023, and the horizon for its end from the Ukrainian perspective.


  • Are you targeting Kyiv again?

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, the military expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Mykola Beliskov, considered that the most prominent expected development is the return of Kyiv to the Bank of Russia's goals in 2023, and that Moscow will try to repeat the attempt to control it, he said.

And he believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin "is really seeking that with the end of winter in the annual war, because he realizes that Kyiv's survival is a defeat for him, and that if it does not fall, he will not control Ukraine, and the war fronts, whose financial, political, military and human costs have exceeded the limits of expectations in the Kremlin, will not calm down." ".


  • What is Ukraine waiting for?

On the other hand, Ukraine seems to be heading towards obtaining more Western support in 2023, both financially and militarily, and in this context came the first trip that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made outside the country since the beginning of the war.

Oleksiy Kuchel, head of the "Ukrainian Options" Foundation for Strategic Studies, told Al-Jazeera Net: Ukraine will receive a confirmed figure of $18 billion from the European Union, and is waiting for the activation of the "Lend Liz" law in Washington to obtain military equipment worth more than $40 billion.

He explained that these numbers are based on the trust Kyiv built with its Western partners during 2022, and the partners' conviction of the importance of deterring Russia.

He added, "I believe that our acquisition of the Aires, NASAMS, and Patriot air defense systems is an indication of this, and the possibility of obtaining other effective types of defensive and offensive weapons and ammunition in 2023."


  • Are negotiations possible?

Almost all Ukrainians, and most Russians, agree on the impossibility of holding any negotiations to end the war through peaceful political means.

The expert Kushel believes that "there will be no negotiations in 2023, or in the middle of it at the very least. The negotiations will be based on what the battlefield is witnessing, and both parties are making plans that confirm that it will get more heated and heated."

He added, "Before making a decision, for us, any negotiations will mean surrendering to Russia or freezing the conflict, and this - in both cases - is in Moscow's interest and the Ukrainians will not be satisfied with it."


  • When will the war end?

Perhaps the question of when and how the war will end is one of the most important and difficult questions, especially since its answers are subject to many concrete facts and changing factors.

However, the military expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Mykola Beliskov, said, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that "depending on what we have witnessed during the past months, and on the amount of support that we have received and expected, we can - in theory - say that the course of the war will witness a radical shift with the end of the war." A difficult winter for both parties, and that we will actually reach the limits of February 24 at the end of the summer or the beginning of the fall.

He continued, "Many officials assert that the liberation of Crimea and the entire Donbass region is possible in 2023, but I see that this is subject to complex political and military calculations, both local and international."

Beliskov said that these expectations are possible if Russia does not undertake a retaliatory "nuclear massacre", because its other means have been exhausted, and did not lead to a quick victory that would subdue Kyiv within 3 days as they wanted in the Kremlin, or all of Ukraine within 10 months.

However, it remains certain that this Ukrainian "optimism" is linked to the fact of Western support before anything else, a fact that raises many questions about the West's steadfastness in its positions, the possibility of it retreating in the face of the large bill of war, the internal pressures that many of its countries are exposed to, and the possibility that Russia is actually resorting to weapons of mass destruction, which it has repeatedly threatened.