Where will the international situation go in 2023? This variable has attracted the most attention!

　　Chinanews.com, Beijing, January 3rd, title: Where will the international situation go in 2023? This variable has attracted the most attention!

　　author sweet

　　As we bid farewell to the old and usher in the new, the world's major changes unseen in a century are accelerating, and the instability and uncertainty of the international situation have increased significantly.

　　In the past year, local conflicts in the region continued, hot wars filled the air, and the Ukraine crisis stung the global geopolitical nerves; the game between major powers intensified, the Cold War mentality was rampant, and some countries formed gangs everywhere, threatening regional peace and prosperity.

　　And with the arrival of the new year, will the Ukrainian crisis usher in a turnaround?

What kind of ups and downs will there be in relations between major powers?

What variables will test the already turbulent international situation?

Well-known experts and scholars on international issues at home and abroad discussed the above issues, and jointly decoded the challenges and new situations under the global changes.

Data map: The military aid provided by the United States to Ukraine.

Decoding the Ukraine crisis

Three key factors affecting 2023

　　In the new year, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains one of the biggest variables, and its development and changes will affect and shape the future international order to a certain extent.

This so-called "Europe's largest military conflict since the 21st century" is likely to maintain a stalemate and gradually move towards a peaceful situation.

Among them, three key factors may affect the future trend of the situation.

——mainly in the United States

　　Experts generally believe that in order to solve the Ukraine crisis, "the main ball is still on the side of the United States."

The key to resolving the crisis is how to link the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, balance between Russia and the West, and the European security architecture.

　　What will the United States do in the future?

　　Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategic and Peace Studies at the China Foreign Affairs University, analyzed that 10 months after the Ukrainian crisis broke out, the United States has achieved its strategic goals to a certain extent, which is to "weaken Russia, hold the European Union in check, and prevent the Eurasian continent from forming a completely divorced form of the United States." dominant framework".

It is in America's interest to continue the Ukraine crisis.

Therefore, the United States may maintain its current policy in 2023.

　　Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, said that aiding Ukraine is not only related to the US's strategic goals against Russia in Europe, but also related to its so-called leadership and influence.

"So as long as some hard-line countries in Ukraine and Europe are unwilling to give up their position of sanctioning Russia, the United States will not openly retreat. In particular, the military support of the United States will keep this crisis going for a while."

—— European policy adjustment is conducive to easing the situation

　　The Russia-Ukraine situation exacerbated the European energy and inflation crisis.

And the United States took advantage of the fire to make Europe worse, and it also made the United States and Europe drift away.

To that end, French President Emmanuel Macron called on Europe to reduce its security reliance on the United States, while calling on the West to provide Russia with security guarantees as part of negotiations to end the Ukraine crisis and prevent the conflict from spreading to Europe.

　　Does this mean that Europe will no longer "dance with beauty"?

　　Su Hao believes that although European countries have to obey the United States to fight against Russia within the transatlantic framework, they are now starting to reassess the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the strategic environment facing the EU in order to safeguard their own interests.

The adjustment of the policies of European countries may affect the status and posture of the United States and Russia in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and play a certain positive role.

　　Fabio Massimo Palandi, an Italian expert on international affairs, said that the Ukrainian crisis may still have no solution in 2023, "but it is clear that some things will happen in a positive way, and we hope that Europe can find a solution." Standing alone, self-serving first, means co-existing with Russia and making a real contribution to the negotiating process."

　　Aina Dunn, a senior researcher at Taihe Institute, and Mahoney, a professor at the School of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University, questioned this—if Biden and Zelensky do not want to promote a solution, can Macron and Scholz can you do it?

　　The answer is, "Russia has adopted a siege strategy and is attacking key infrastructure in Ukraine in an attempt to put pressure on Ukraine. But as long as Biden and Zelensky are determined not to negotiate, basically the situation will not change. It is difficult for European countries to plan A peaceful solution."

Data map: On October 10, 2022 local time, multiple explosions occurred in the center of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.

——The international community is expected to persuade and promote talks

　　The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia have also produced huge spillover effects.

How to resolve the crisis has become a common challenge faced by the international community.

　　Cui Hongjian said that at present, from the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to the Black Sea grain export agreement, the international community is paying more and more attention and involvement, and the expectations and voices for the Ukrainian crisis to be resolved in the direction of diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible are also increasing.

　　At the same time, coordination between major powers has recently increased.

He further pointed out that "the factors that are conducive to peace and negotiations are gathering now, and I hope that 2023 will become an important node for major countries to work together to promote peace and talks as the main direction. This includes between China and Europe, between China and the United States, Some close interaction and coordination between China and Russia is also worth looking forward to."

Data map: On June 8, 2022, US President Biden delivered a speech at the Summit of the Americas.

Outlook to 2023

These variables are to be observed

　　In addition to the Ukraine crisis, in 2023, the three major variables—China-US relations, China-EU relations, and some countries’ challenges to the United States are also worthy of attention, or they may have a profound impact on the future international situation.

　　Talking about Sino-U.S. relations, Cui Hongjian said, "This year, Sino-U.S. relations have shown signs of stabilization. However, domestic political changes in the U.S. will largely be transferred to foreign policy, especially China policy, so will Sino-U.S. relations continue next year? There is a lot of uncertainty in the direction of stability."

　　Su Hao is concerned that some of the status of China-EU relations in 2022 is expected to continue in the new year, and there may be room for further development.

　　Fabio Massimo Palandi believes that what Washington is doing is accelerating the formation of a new Cold War environment. According to this, the tension between the United States, the European Union and China may last longer.

　　Aina Dunn also said that civil unrest and political change may become another important variable in 2023.

Such destabilizing factors are mainly occurring in the countries of the Global South and elsewhere.

　　He analyzed that, on the one hand, countries in the Global South are making their voices heard.

People began to question the leadership of the United States and “dislike the way the United States does business more and more”—taking the Africa, America, and ASEAN summits that the United States participated in as examples, they always talked about frameworks, but had no practical effect.

But at the same time, these countries are affected by the crisis in Ukraine and the global situation. Issues such as water, food and energy cannot be resolved, and they face domestic pressure and the risk of internal turmoil.

(use up)