Missile tests, again and again.
The start of 2023 has a little aftertaste of 2022 on the Korean peninsula.
North Korea, subscribed for nearly a year to serial firing as part of its ballistic program, carried out a new short-range missile test on Sunday, January 1.
The day before, Pyongyang had also closed the year with three more shots.
In addition, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised on Sunday that 2023 would be like 2022, a record year… only worse.
He called for an "exponential increase" in North Korea's nuclear arsenal this year, including the establishment of "mass production" of nuclear-tipped missiles.
North Korean drones vs South Korean nuclear drills
In his speech, the North Korean dictator also explicitly called South Korea a "target".
A semantic choice with serious consequences: traditionally, the Pyongyang regime avoided this term because it was necessary to maintain the idea of "the reunification of two brotherly peoples", notes Christoph Bluth, expert on the Korean peninsula at the University of Bradford, in UK.
But these last few days have brought their share of new elements which demonstrate that "we are in a very worrying situation", estimates Danilo delle Fave, associate researcher at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona, an international collective expert in international security issues, who has worked on relations between the two Koreas.
First there was the dispatch by Pyongyang of five drones into South Korean airspace on December 27 under the nose and beard of the anti-aircraft defense system set up by Seoul.
"North Korea wanted to prove that it could succeed where its southern neighbor has not yet demonstrated that it was able to do the same, even though South Korea is technologically superior", underlines Christoph Bluth .
Above all, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol made very warlike remarks in an interview published Monday by the South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo.
He affirms that his country must "actively prepare" for a conflict, while ensuring that Seoul intends to conduct "joint [military] nuclear exercises with the United States".
It would be an "unprecedented step" for South Korea as well as for Washington, underlines Danilo delle Fave.
"Be careful, this does not mean that Seoul intends to acquire atomic weapons soon," warns Christoph Bluth.
These exercises consist of simulating a North Korean nuclear attack and preparing for the response, "both conventional and nuclear", specifies Danilo delle Fave.
Washington would teach its Asian ally to support it in deploying and carrying out a nuclear counterattack targeting North Korea with American weapons from South Korean soil.
"It would be the first time that a country that is not part of NATO [South Korea has the status of a major ally that is not a member of the Atlantic Organization, editor's note] has benefited from such training to know how to handle American nuclear weapons", specifies the ITSS expert.
According to the daily Chosun Ilbo, Washington would be "rather open" to this prospect, which the American administration refused to confirm officially, reported the Reuters agency.
Yoon Seok-yeol, president too muscular?
But the mere prospect of such exercises is both a provocation and a signal sent by Seoul to Pyongyang.
It is a way of making "North Korea understand that in the event of a bombardment, there could very well be a nuclear response, even if South Korea does not have atomic weapons", notes Christoph Bluth .
It is also a way to press where it hurts Kim Jong-un the most.
"One of the main fears of the Pyongyang regime is that its neighbor to the south is acquiring nuclear capabilities," says Danilo delle Fave.
In this case, joint exercises with the United States would allow Seoul both to flex some nuclear muscle while remaining officially committed to its posture of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
This announcement illustrates the very offensive posture adopted by Yoon Seok-yeol towards North Korea since he came to power in May 2022. "The conservative government of Yoon Seok-yeol has completely broken with the diplomatic openness practiced by its liberal predecessor and the current escalation of tensions is partly the result of this much more muscular approach to relations with North Korea," said Danilo delle Fave.
Yoon Seok-yeol has even indicated that he intends to again qualify North Korea as an “enemy” country in the national white paper devoted to national security.
A denomination that had been abandoned since 2018.
>> To read also: "North Korea against South Korea, the spiral of the arms race"
Seoul's role in the deterioration of relations between the two Koreas is rarely highlighted.
Yet it often takes two to create such a crisis situation.
Certainly, Kim Jong-un does not stop brandishing his missiles capable of striking South Korea.
But his South Korean counterpart does little to calm the North Korean dictator's warlike inclinations.
In fact, the North Korean leader has been stuck since the 2018 summit with Donald Trump, believes Christoph Bluth.
"John Bolton [former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump, editor's note] laid down the principle that North Korea had to completely dismantle its nuclear program before it could benefit from an easing of sanctions, which Pyongyang absolutely could not accept," he said.
Faced with the intransigence of the Trump years and the priority given by the Biden administration to Russia and China, North Korea chose "to increase the pressure on South Korea, in the hope that Seoul pushes its American ally to soften its position with regard to Pyongyang," said Christoph Bluth.
Waiting for the incident?
But Kim Jong-un made a miscalculation in his game of three-cushion billiards: "Yoon Seok-yeol is not reacting at all as expected since he is on the contrary pushing Washington to get more involved militarily in the region", analyzes the expert from the University of Bradford.
The conservative South Korean president is trying to take advantage of the North Korean threat in order to obtain more American armaments.
“We are currently witnessing the militarization of South Korea,” concludes Christoph Bluth.
However, none of the experts interviewed by France 24 believe that this escalation of tensions could make the Korean peninsula the next theater of open conflict.
"North Korea cannot afford to go too far, because it depends economically on China, which will not allow it to happen, and it knows that the United States has the means to defeat Pyongyang militarily", summarizes Danilo delle Fave. .
For him, the two countries are nonetheless playing a dangerous game.
“The risk is that an unfortunate incident will cause the situation to spiral out of control,” he says.
On this subject, the irruption of drones in this latent conflict only increases the risk of an accident with potentially disastrous consequences.
Even if no accident occurs, the fact remains that this face-to-face between a North Korea always quick to carry out ballistic tests and an increasingly diplomatically intransigent South Korea risks " become the new normal on the Korean peninsula", fears Christoph Bluth.
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