Even if the protests in Iran seemed to be leveling off over the past two weeks, they are by no means over.
They have flared up again since Saturday, and there have been deaths in several cities.
The Tehran bazaar remained closed again.
Another argument for the continuation of the uprising this year is that the leadership of the Islamic Republic did not use the brief calm to release pressure from the kettle.
The regime does not even move on issues such as compulsory headscarves, where a solution seems relatively easy.
It is paralyzed, also unable to find solutions to big issues, such as fighting deep-seated corruption.
It has become the cement of those in power, but it is like a block to the economy.
The opposition abroad could form a coalition
In the Iranian economy, however, the signs are pointing to a storm.
The impoverishment of large parts of the population unleashes new protest potential, and if the regime does not take countermeasures soon, there is a risk of a big bang.
The leadership in Tehran faces further adversity because there are finally signs of a grand coalition in the long-disunited Iranian diaspora.
On New Year's Day, leading Iranian opposition figures around the world surprisingly welcomed a tweet by the son of the last Pahlavi Shah.
In it, 2023 is declared the “Year of Liberation”.
But there is still a long way to go.