Chinanews.com, Beijing, January 2, title: Outlook for 2023: The recovery of the global economy is difficult, and China will bring new development opportunities
Reporter Meng Xiangjun
The new crown epidemic, the Ukraine crisis, high inflation, skyrocketing energy prices, supply chain disorder... In 2023, the road to global economic recovery will be full of challenges.
As the largest engine of world economic growth, how will China play its role in the new year and contribute wisdom and strength to the continuous improvement of the global economy?
In the context of some Western politicians advocating "decoupling" with China, how can the Chinese economy break through and thrive?
Recently, when participating in an online interview with Chinanews.com, Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategic and Peace Studies at China Foreign Affairs University, Joseph Gregory Mahoney, a professor at the School of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University, and Ai Dunn, a senior researcher at Taihe Institute, An in-depth interpretation of the forecast of the global economic situation in 2023 and the important role of the Chinese economy in the global economy.
Data map: Beijing residents pass by the People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Jiang Qiming
[Four major challenges: the global economy is hard to get out of the downturn]
Su Hao believes that in the new year, the global economy will face four major challenges.
The first is the impact of the new crown epidemic.
Su Hao noticed that whether it is the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), or some other important economic institutions, the assessment of the global economic trend in 2023 is relatively negative.
At present, the impact of the new crown epidemic is still huge. Under the epidemic, various institutions generally believe that the global economy may fall into a long-term sustained low growth.
The second is the impact of the Ukraine crisis.
Su Hao pointed out that the Ukrainian crisis had a huge impact on the European economy, and also triggered a global energy crisis, resulting in food supply shortages.
Whether peace will be achieved in Ukraine in 2023 is less certain.
The negative impact of the crisis on the world economy will continue to exist, bringing great uncertainty to the global economic structure.
The third is the actions of the United States on its own economy.
Su Hao said that the current inflation in the United States is serious. Whether it is raising interest rates, deflation, or taking advantage of the Ukraine crisis, in order to protect itself, the United States must strengthen the status of the US dollar and harvest financially from developing economies and even some of its important economic partners. , to benefit oneself.
The uncertainty of the US economy has a negative impact on the world economy.
The fourth is the performance of other economies.
Su Hao reminded that the performance of other developed economies also needs to be observed. For example, the economic situation in the European Union is unstable, inflation is serious, and some important basic commodities such as energy and electricity supply are blocked, which seriously affects the recovery of the European economy; the developed economies of East Asia, Japan and South Korea Affected by the interest rate hike of the US dollar, economic development is also subject to great uncertainty.
[One influence: America distorts the world economy for itself]
Talking specifically about the impact of the United States on the world economic trend, Su Hao analyzed that the United States is now forcing the so-called "broken chain" and abnormal industrial transfers, such as requiring TSMC and South Korean companies to transfer chip production to the United States.
Doing so may bring a certain degree of industrial recovery to the United States in the short term, but in the long run, it will lead to a significant increase in product costs, which will have a negative impact on the sustainable development of the economy.
On November 2, 2022 local time, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to between 3.75% and 4%.
The picture shows Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attending a press conference that day.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong
He believes that the United States has disregarded the coordinated development of other economies in the world for its own economic interests, causing the global economy to fall into a state of distortion.
Mahoney pointed out that the recent vision of the United States to revive its own manufacturing industry has not become a reality.
There may be some growth in U.S. manufacturing in the next few years, but this will not match its overall demand for homegrown products.
And as the U.S. Democratic Party loses control of the House of Representatives, its ability to push domestic legislation will be hampered.
Mahoney said that once a U.S. president faces resistance at home, he often turns to the field of diplomacy, where his powers are relatively unrestricted, in order to show his strength in seeking re-election.
He analyzed that although the Biden administration is promoting "decoupling" with China diplomatically, and will see this situation intensify in the next two years, the Chinese economy has already dominated the world, and the United States cannot push China out at all. .
Except for some technical fields, the United States itself cannot truly "decouple" from China, because "the United States is too dependent on China."
Combing the latitude and longitude of history, Mahoney also pointed out that since the reunification of Germany and Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom have long worried about the rise of Germany again.
The US backing of the UK on Brexit and the detachment of Germany from Russian energy in order to achieve US own strategic goals really hit German industry.
He said that Germany is an export-oriented economy, and he has to wonder whether the United States is taking advantage of the Ukraine crisis to target Germany.
He also believes that Europe is "gradually waking up" to this statement, so the urgency for Europe to try to maintain relations with China has increased.
[Open layout: China is the mainstay of world economic recovery]
Su Hao said that over the years, the contribution of China's economy to world economic growth has remained at about 30%, and it will continue to serve as the engine of global economic recovery.
Although the United States is trying to weaken the Chinese economy by "decoupling and breaking the chain", China is still the mainstay of global economic recovery and manufacturing, and will continue to play a stabilizing role.
China's status as a major manufacturing country will not change in the short term and cannot be replaced.
On November 4, 2022, the opening ceremony of the 5th China International Import Expo and Hongqiao International Economic Forum was held at the National Convention and Exhibition Center (Shanghai). Foreign media reporters watched the opening ceremony on a large screen in the news center.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Jia Tianyong
First, China continues to maintain economic and trade relations with Western developed economies. The United States cannot "decouple" from China. It needs the support of Chinese products to reduce inflation.
Second, China is carrying out a new layout for economic development.
For example, the expansion of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, and the establishment of further economic cooperation between China and developing regions and the Arab world, have all expanded the space of the Chinese economy in the world economy.
Third, as an open economy with the entire industrial chain, China's systematic implementation of open source and open economy and its integration into the international economic system will be an important source of power for the world economy in the long run.
Expo diplomacy such as the Canton Fair, the Service Trade Fair, the China International Import Expo, and the Consumer Expo, as well as a series of high-tech industry opening forums, etc., are all practices of "China opening up to the world and letting the world into China".
Fourth, China attaches great importance to building a unified market to expand domestic demand and expand its own functions and roles as an important aspect of the world market, so as to better integrate into the world.
As long as its own economy is stable, China will definitely bring new development opportunities to the world, Su Hao summarized.
Dunn analyzed this and said that China plays an active role in the global economy and is concentrating on building more trade zones, especially in ASEAN countries.
As China's largest economic partner, ASEAN will also become the fastest growing region in the world. The cooperation between the two sides is not only effective, but also sustainable.
For the African region, China is helping African countries obtain daily necessities and helping solve Africa's debt problems; for the South American region, it is also very important for China to cooperate with South American countries to achieve diversification of resource sources.
["V"-shaped recovery? How will China's economy go in the new year? 】
Regarding the next trend of China's economy, Su Hao noticed that some world economic institutions are relatively optimistic about China's economic growth in 2023.
He believes that, on the one hand, the impact of the new crown epidemic on China's society and economy is very obvious. The Chinese economy may experience a low-speed growth next year and will recover to a certain extent, but the strength of the recovery remains to be seen.
In late December 2022, in the Xiling Gorge section of the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River, ships on the river shuttled back and forth, and the ro-ro terminal operated around the clock.
The picture shows the busy Zigui ro-ro terminal.
Photo by Zheng Jiayu
On the other hand, to stimulate economic recovery, all countries need the support of the manufacturing industry to a certain extent, and China, as a powerful economy and the most important manufacturing country, can play a significant and positive role in the stability of the world economy.
Tang En observed that the world economic situation is changing, and this is beneficial to China.
He analyzed that during the COVID-19 pandemic, some developed economies began to lose money. For example, Europe is under pressure to pay high costs for commodities such as food and energy.
European countries, whose main source of income is exports, cannot now reduce their production costs to globally competitive levels, and their industrial goods will not be able to be produced within Europe for years to come.
"Real changes are taking place," Dunn said as an example. In order to maintain global competitiveness and produce at a reasonable price, the German chemical giant BASF is closing its factories in Germany and transferring production to China.
And China clearly knows that in order to be globally competitive, it must become the most efficient producer.
China is carving out its own niche market and continues to strive to improve efficiency and produce efficiently through (industrial) cluster development and so on.
Tang En noticed that this was reflected in the Chinese government's five-year plan and economic policies.
In addition, he said that the essence of China's "dual circulation" economic strategy is to use consumption to promote the economy and attract investment. This strategy will work, but it must be seen how fast it develops.
Tang En believes that in the early stage of the "post-epidemic era", China may experience a "V"-shaped economic recovery.
(use up)