Kiev

- After months of Ukraine denying the seriousness of the military build-up around it, and underestimating Western warnings in this regard, and despite President Volodymyr Zelensky's call on his citizens to calm down and prepare to celebrate Easter in the spring and enjoy the sunny weather and barbecues during the holidays, Russia started a war on Ukraine on February 24 2022, and the controversy was settled with the sounds of shelling and the progress of forces on the ground.

The military attack shocked the Ukrainians at the official and popular levels, prompting millions of them to flee quickly to the cities of the safer western provinces at the beginning of the war, and then seek refuge in European neighboring countries and others.

Soon, Russian forces penetrated 10 provinces within days, and even took control of almost the entire province of Kherson in the south, and its forces reached the outskirts of the capital, which seemed to be actually falling.

A village in Kherson province after the withdrawal of Russian forces from it (Anatolia)

Russian withdrawal and "massacres"

However, the scene changed in reverse and radically at the end of March.

The resistance of the Ukrainians - as it seemed - prompted the Russians to withdraw from the suburbs of Kyiv and all the northern provinces (Kyiv, Zhitomir, Chernihiv and Sumy).

The withdrawal revealed what Kyiv described as "massacres" carried out by the Russians in the cities of Hostomel, Bucha, Irbin, Borodyanka and others.

It became the talk of the world, until "brutality" became a feature that many world leaders describe Russia's approach to its war.


Risks, penalties and support

All of the above, in addition to the danger of a catastrophe at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, and the public Russian threats to use weapons of mass destruction, constituted reasons or pretexts for a major shift in positions, in which the West became more stringent with Russia, and began to lavish financial and military aid on Kyiv.

This is in addition to the unprecedented sanctions imposed and tightened - and still are - on a country of the size and stature of Russia, which placed it alongside countries such as North Korea and Iran.

Western support, especially with the British "Javelin" missiles and the American "HIMARS" systems after the Turkish "Bayraktar" drones, and various other types of Western lethal weapons, enabled Kyiv to launch "qualitative operations and counter battles" starting in April.

The sinking of the cruiser "Moscow" (Moscow), which was considered the pride of the Russian Navy, was the title of the beginning, followed by bombing operations on the Russian sites and their supply routes.

This continued until mid-September, when Ukraine regained control of most of Kharkiv Province to the east.

After that, Moscow hastened to announce the mobilization of 300,000 soldiers among its forces in late September, and the annexation of 4 Ukrainian provinces to its lands (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson), despite widespread international rejection.

Then came the Ukrainian response by targeting the Crimean Bridge in early October, which Russia built over the years following its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and it was proud that it was one of the most fortified and protected sites.

In early November, Ukrainian forces were able to advance south, regaining control of the entirety of Mykolaiv Province, and the eastern bank of Kherson Province, declaring the "liberation" of 54% of the lands occupied by Russia in 2022.

The Ukrainian targeting on the Crimean bridge constituted a turning point in the war (Anatolia)

Targeting Crimea and accusing Iran

The targeting of the Crimean Bridge was an important event that angered the Russians.

Since that time, their focus has shifted to bombing energy and water facilities in Ukraine, with "Iranian" missiles and drones, despite Tehran's announcement that it did not sell these planes to Moscow for the purpose of using them in the attack on Ukraine.

Thus, darkness began to engulf most of the provinces of Ukraine, and it seemed that the winter would be harsher for the population than the flames of war, which prompted the authorities to accuse Tehran of supporting Russia with drones, and to request exceptional Western support in the field of air defenses.

Ukraine in the "care of the West"

The outbreak of the war was enough for Kiev to declare openly that it was "defending" the lands and values ​​of the West against "Russia's expansionist ambitions", and the passage of 10 months after the war was also sufficient to confirm that its tendencies and endeavors were Western without retreat.

This was evident in submitting an official request during the war for membership in both the European Union and NATO, and President Volodymyr Zelensky's consideration that Ukraine is part of the two entities "de facto", and that his country's army today is fighting with NATO weapons, and that it is stronger and more efficient than the armies of several countries in it.

This was met with the assurance of the NATO and Union countries, most notably the United States, Canada and Britain, to continue supporting Kyiv, whatever the cost, and however long it would take, even if it did not obtain membership.

Since the beginning of the Russian offensive, the United States says it has supported Ukraine with more than $21 billion, especially in the military field.

It intends to allocate another $45 billion to it in 2023.

And the Ukrainian Prime Minister announced that the countries of the European Union and others have provided his country with about 18 billion dollars in financial and humanitarian aid, and that the G7 countries have pledged to provide another 32 billion in 2023 as well.

The Russian bombing led to heavy losses in the infrastructure and economic sectors (Al-Jazeera)

The war destroys the economy

Despite the huge Western support, the war quickly decimated Ukraine's economy, which lost at least $600 billion, according to the Kyiv Institute of Economics, with its need for about $750 billion as part of the "Marshall Plan" (reconstruction process) it calls for.

The losses include about $136 billion as a result of the demise of entire cities and the destruction of about 144,000 residential buildings, 2,918 educational institutions, 1,131 medical, and 1,171 cultural, tourist and sports facilities, and others.

The figures also include a decline in the domestic product, the value of the national currency "hryvnia", and per capita income, by a rate of approximately 30%, in addition to stopping at least 30% of the country's factories and companies, and the disruption of most of its agricultural and industrial exports, while grain exports saved a special agreement in July. mediated by a Turkish UN.

To the losses is also added damage to all thermal and hydroelectric power plants, and 50% in general of the 345 energy facilities, according to the Ukrainian Prime Ministry.

A third of society is victims

As for the victims, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, they numbered 17,595 as of mid-December 2022, including 6,826 dead and 10,769 wounded.

But at the same time, the Commission and the Ukrainian authorities indicate that these numbers are "inaccurate", and that they are likely to be "much larger", while the public prosecutor in Kyiv talks about documenting 58 thousand and 163 war crimes against Ukraine and its citizens so far.

The war led to "European" waves of displacement and asylum this time, including about 16 million people, equivalent to a third of the country's population, which was estimated at 42 million before the war.

As of the end of November, 8,364,000 Ukrainians have sought refuge in other countries, 90% of them are women and children.

Among the refugees are about 7.5 million children, more than half of the number of children in Ukraine before the war.

The number of internally displaced persons has reached about 8 million, but the number may reach 12 million, according to the local authorities, given that many do not register themselves as "displaced" in the new areas of residence.

Insistence dispels the horizon of negotiation

By the end of the year, Ukraine insists on liberating all of its lands, including Crimea and the Donbass region, holding "war criminals" accountable, and obtaining compensation and guarantees.

On the other hand, Russia adheres to the principle of "fait accompli", which it says it has imposed on the ground.

Thus, the chances of a political solution remain currently excluded within the framework of any negotiations, and the year 2023 remains open to all possibilities.